Mitigation Scenarios and Pathways

We explore the greenhouse-gas emission reductions necessary to achieve long-term global climate goals, such as holding warming below 1.5 and 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Analysing emissions scenarios from energy-economic models and other sources with coupled carbon-cycle/climate models leads to globally “allowed” ranges of emissions for different greenhouse gases, air pollutants and sectors, as well as associated time- and pathway-dependent mitigation costs and technology portfolios.

Publications

This report, produced in collaboration with Solutions for Our Climate, calculates a 1.5°C-aligned phase out date for fossil gas in the South Korean power sector. We find that South Korea should aim to phase out fossil gas from the power sector before 2035.  
The new Philippine government has critical decisions to make on investing in electricity generation infrastructure. Aggressively shifting to renewables will decarbonise the grid, provide energy security and help achieve 1.5°C. Using data from our 1.5°C National Pathway Explorer, we have compared the current Philippine Energy Plan (2020-2040) with 1.5°C benchmarks to show what needs to happen in the power sector by 2030 and 2040.  
Limiting global warming to 1.5°C requires transforming almost all systems, from how we power our economy and build our cities to how we feed a growing population and manage our land. This report provides an overview of how we are collectively doing in addressing the climate crisis.  
Global action remains insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal. Increasing the ambition of 2030 climate targets and accelerating emissions reductions in this decade are essential. This report presents technically feasible 1.5°C compatible energy and emissions pathways for the group of countries that make up the Council of Europe (CoE), and assesses whether CoE member states’ current 2030 climate targets (the Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs) are collectively aligned with limiting warming to 1.5°C.  

Projects

This project, funded by the IKEA Foundation, shows how a group of countries from different regions can update their NDCs (national climate pledges) to be in line with the Paris Agreement goals.  
The project aims to investigate how changes in land cover and land management can help to meet the mitigation and adaptation objectives of the Paris Agreement, as well as the Sustainable Development Goals. The project partners findings will be disseminated through a number of tools, events and products and by closely involving stakeholders and policy-makers, with the aim to support sustainable land use decision-making.  
COP21 Results and Implications for Pathways and Policies for Low Emissions European Societies The Paris Agreement represents an important new strategic context for EU climate policy. Analysing the implications of this new context requires an interdisciplinary approach, combining analysis of the evolution of the international climate regime as well as of NDCs and their socio-economic implications.  
Science and policy to assist and support SIDSs and LDCs to negotiate a strong international climate regime, enabling low carbon development and supporting adaptation needs.  
Implemented under a collaborative framework, this project is designed to provide specific analytical, scientific and strategic information and support to strengthen the capacity of Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Project Period: 2011 - 2012