Mitigation Scenarios and Pathways

 ©Henrike Doebert / Climate Analytics
©Henrike Doebert / Climate Analytics

We explore the greenhouse-gas emission reductions necessary to achieve long-term global climate goals, such as holding warming below 1.5 and 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Analysing emissions scenarios from energy-economic models and other sources with coupled carbon-cycle/climate models leads to globally “allowed” ranges of emissions for different greenhouse gases, air pollutants and sectors, as well as associated time- and pathway-dependent mitigation costs and technology portfolios.

Latest

"It really is time that governments stopped trying to find more ways to offset their fossil fuel emissions through, for example, protecting seagrass and mangroves in coastal areas," says Bill Hare, chief executive officer of Climate Analytics. "They do need protection, but if that work is then used to offset emissions, then ultimately the resulting warming will kill them. We need a clear firewall between these two activities."  
Carbon pollution from fracking all Western Australia’s potential unconventional gas reserves would blow Australia’s entire carbon budget under the Paris Agreement three times over, new research shows. German-based researcher Climate Analytics last week released Western Australia's Gas Gamble - Implications of natural gas extraction in WA.  
A new Climate Analytics report released today shows that Western Australia’s gas resource emissions are four times higher than national energy carbon pollution budget under Paris Agreement. It also shows that rather than risk stranded assets by investing in gas, it would be much smarter for WA to take advantage of its vast renewable energy resources.  
COP23 briefing - There has been much talk of "Blue Carbon" in the Bonn climate negotiations. But what does it really mean? This briefing sets out the issues and finds that the use of blue carbon to offset and hence effectively avoid required emission reductions in other sectors would undermine our ability to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C.  
One of the world’s leading climate experts says Australia needs to aim for 100 per cent renewables within two decades as part of its efforts to meet climate targets, and it stands to reap enormous economic – and environmental – benefits if it does. Coverage of Climate Analytics' CEO Dr Bill Hare's talk at Keith Roby Memorial Lecture at Murdoch University in Perth, Australia.  

Publications

The European Union‘s targets and policies are not yet compatible with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. This report, the second country assessment in the Climate Action Tracker's Scaling Up Climate Action Series, analyses areas where the European Union could accelerate its climate action. The report illustrates GHG emissions reductions from such actions, along with other benefits.  
With the Australian Conservation Foundation, Climate Analytics has been analysing Australia's emissions profile and policies. We have created some graphic factsheets that illustrate where Australia is compared with other countries, and clearly show how far behind Australia is compared to other major economies in terms of emissions and policies.  
Germany needs to phase coal out of its electricity sector by 2030 to meet its obligations under the Paris Agreement. This is earlier than the dates discussed so far by the Coal Commission, a body established to come up with a coal exit plan by the end of 2018. If Germany follows the Paris Agreement compatible pathway we propose here, it can also make significant steps towards meeting its 2020 emission reduction targets – something seen as impossible at the moment. Under a planned and structured coal phase out, energy security and reliability of electricity supply is not expected to be a major concern and will be manageable. As well as reduced health impacts, a coal exit from electricity generation by 2030 in Germany will bring added benefits in job creation, helping to smooth the transition to a zero-carbon energy system.  
This technical note looks at the estimates of the remaining warming that have been used in the IPCC AR5 and in recent studies, and evaluates the consequences for carbon budget estimates to limit warming to 1.5°C.  
Climate Analytics’ submission to the Talanoa Dialogue summarises the latest scientific findings relating to the 1.5°C limit. It outlines what climate impacts are being experienced around the globe at the current level of warming of around 1°C, such as extreme weather events, more intense tropical cyclones, impacts on oceans systems and health. It also discusses the benefits of the 1.5°C limit in terms of avoided impacts, especially on the most vulnerable communities, and what is needed to limit warming to 1.5°C.  

Projects

The "Climate Action Tracker" is an independent science-based assessment, which tracks the emission commitments and actions of countries.  
COP21 Results and Implications for Pathways and Policies for Low Emissions European Societies  
Science and policy to assist and support SIDSs and LDCs to negotiate a strong international climate regime, enabling low carbon development and supporting adaptation needs.  
Implemented under a collaborative framework, this project is designed to provide specific analytical, scientific and strategic information and support to strengthen the capacity of Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Project Period: 2011 - 2012  
Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation Pathways and Evaluation of the Robustness of Mitigation Cost Estimates Project Period: 2011 - 2014