Emissions: new synthesis shows what a wasted decade means for the climate pact made in Paris - commentary from a group of international scientists including Climate Analytics' Science Director Michiel Schaeffer.
Our areas of expertise include:
- Emission reduction targets
- Carbon and emission budgets
- Mitigation costs
- Role of air pollutants
- Co-benefits
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We explore the greenhouse-gas emission reductions necessary to achieve long-term global climate goals, such as holding warming below 1.5 and 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Analysing emissions scenarios from energy-economic models and other sources with coupled carbon-cycle/climate models leads to globally “allowed” ranges of emissions for different greenhouse gases, air pollutants and sectors, as well as associated time- and pathway-dependent mitigation costs and technology portfolios.
Latest
Australia's catastrophic brush fire season comes as the country continues to insist on a climate loophole that critics say would undermine the Paris Agreement's objective of keeping global warming to relatively safe levels. Coverage of our report on Australia's intent to use 40 year old Kyoto Protocol credits to meet its already insufficient 2030 emission reduction targets.
Germany will have to boost its national targets and implement appropriate measures, including in the transport sector, if it is to do its part to help keep global warming within 1.5°C, according to a new Climate Analytics study commissioned by the Agora Verkehrswende initiative. It will also have to support the EU in raising its climate ambition.
To keep warming within the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C limit, in 2020 governments need to increase their climate targets to result in emissions at least 50% lower in 2030 than the levels implied by their current set of Paris Agreement pledges. All governments must act for the best chance to keep global warming within the safer limit, but plummeting costs of renewables make this transformational change possible, according to a new Climate Analytics report released on the first day of the UN Climate Summit in Madrid.
This report provides key carbon budget benchmarks for the energy and industry sectors for Queensland, Australia, that are consistent with the state playing its role in national and global efforts to limit global mean warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The 1.5°C warming limit in the Paris Agreement is particularly important as it provides the best chance of survival for the Great Barrier Reef, a critical natural and economic asset for Queensland and World Heritage site.
Queensland must rapidly ditch coal-fired power to meet Australia's emission targets, report findsABC
Queensland's current carbon emissions would "virtually guarantee the extinction of most of the Great Barrier Reef" within 12 years if replicated worldwide, according to a new report. The report by Climate Analytics recommends Queensland stop burning coal for power by 2030 to play its part in keeping global heating to 1.5 Celsius under the UN's Paris Agreement targets, agreed to by Australia in 2016.
If government and industry projections for fossil fuel expansions are realised, and if the rest of the world adopts policies consistent with the Paris Agreement, Australia could be responsible for up to 17 per cent of global emissions by 2030, our new report shows.
Publications
Germany will have to boost its national targets and implement appropriate measures if it is to meet the Paris Agreement’s goals, and this will place considerable demands on the transport sector, according to this study commissioned by Agora Verkehrswende. The EU’s most populous country will also have to support the bloc in increasing its climate action.
Deutschland wird seine nationalen Ziele verstärken und geeignete Maßnahmen ergreifen müssen, um die Ziele des Pariser Klimaabkommens zu erreichen. Dies wird laut der Studie von Climate Analytics, im Auftrag von Agora Verkehrswende, erhebliche Anstrengungen im Verkehrssektor erfordern. Auch das bevölkerungsreichste Land der EU wird sich seiner Verantwortung stellen müssen.
This report, prepared under the EU-funder Horizon 2020 project CONSTRAIN, zeroes in on the remaining carbon budget as well as projected surface warming rates over the next 20 years. Both topics are crucially important to the implementation of the Paris Agreement.
This report provides key carbon budget benchmarks for the energy and industry sectors for Queensland that are consistent with the state playing its role in national and global efforts to limit global mean warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial.
The multicentennial sea-level rise commitment of pledged near-term emission reduction efforts under the Paris Agreement has not been quantified yet. This report estimates this sea-level rise commitment and find that pledged emissions until 2030 lock in 1m of sea-level rise in the year 2300.
Climate change will be the greatest threat to humanity and global ecosystems in the coming years, and there is a pressing need to understand and communicate the impacts of warming, across the perspectives of the natural and social sciences. Hoegh-Guldberg et al. review the climate change–impact literature, expanding on the recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. They provide evidence of the impacts of warming at 1°, 1.5°, and 2°C—and higher—for the physical system, ecosystems, agriculture, and human livelihoods. The benefits of limiting climate change to no more than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels would outweigh the costs.
Australia’s share of global CO2 emissions from domestic use of fossil fuels was about 1.4% in 2017. Accounting for fossil fuel exports lifts Australia’s global carbon footprint to about 5%. This is equivalent to the total emissions of Russia, which is ranked the fifth biggest CO2 emitter globally. If current government and industry projections for fossil fuel exports are realised, Australia could be responsible for about 13% of Paris Agreement- compatible global CO2 emissions in 2030.
Projects
The Paris Agreement commits all countries to take ambitious steps to guarantee a low carbon future. This requires individual national governments to submit more ambitious emission reduction targets. In support of this urgent need to translate global trajectories to be in line with the Paris Agreement, this project, founded by the IKEA Foundation, shows how a group of countries, across all regions and development spectrum can update their NDCs to be in line with the Paris climate goals.
The project aims to investigate how changes in land cover and land management can help to meet the mitigation and adaptation objectives of the Paris Agreement, as well as the Sustainable Development Goals. The project partners findings will be disseminated through a number of tools, events and products and by closely involving stakeholders and policy-makers, with the aim to support sustainable land use decision-making.
The "Climate Action Tracker" is an independent science-based assessment, which tracks the emission commitments and actions of countries.
The project looks into the consequences of the Paris Agreement for planned and existing coal capacity, comparing existing and planned coal capacity for a set of key countries/regions.
COP21 Results and Implications for Pathways and Policies for Low Emissions European Societies
The Paris Agreement represents an important new strategic context for EU climate policy. Analysing the implications of this new context requires an interdisciplinary approach, combining analysis of the evolution of the international climate regime as well as of NDCs and their socio-economic implications.
Science and policy to assist and support SIDSs and LDCs to negotiate a strong international climate regime, enabling low carbon development and supporting adaptation needs.