Mitigation Scenarios and Pathways

 ©Henrike Doebert / Climate Analytics
©Henrike Doebert / Climate Analytics

We explore the greenhouse-gas emission reductions necessary to achieve long-term global climate goals, such as holding warming below 1.5 and 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Analysing emissions scenarios from energy-economic models and other sources with coupled carbon-cycle/climate models leads to globally “allowed” ranges of emissions for different greenhouse gases, air pollutants and sectors, as well as associated time- and pathway-dependent mitigation costs and technology portfolios.

Latest

This report provides key carbon budget benchmarks for the energy and industry sectors for Queensland, Australia, that are consistent with the state playing its role in national and global efforts to limit global mean warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The 1.5°C warming limit in the Paris Agreement is particularly important as it provides the best chance of survival for the Great Barrier Reef, a critical natural and economic asset for Queensland and World Heritage site.  
Queensland's current carbon emissions would "virtually guarantee the extinction of most of the Great Barrier Reef" within 12 years if replicated worldwide, according to a new report. The report by Climate Analytics recommends Queensland stop burning coal for power by 2030 to play its part in keeping global heating to 1.5 Celsius under the UN's Paris Agreement targets, agreed to by Australia in 2016.  
A wealthy, educated and technologically advanced nation like Australia should be leading the world in transitioning to clean energy, not be stuck at the back of the pack. The transition of Australia’s electricity supply away from polluting fuels like coal has fallen well behind comparable countries and is not proceeding at the pace required to limit climate damage to relatively safe levels, new analysis by Climate Analytics has found.  
"It really is time that governments stopped trying to find more ways to offset their fossil fuel emissions through, for example, protecting seagrass and mangroves in coastal areas," says Bill Hare, chief executive officer of Climate Analytics. "They do need protection, but if that work is then used to offset emissions, then ultimately the resulting warming will kill them. We need a clear firewall between these two activities."  
Carbon pollution from fracking all Western Australia’s potential unconventional gas reserves would blow Australia’s entire carbon budget under the Paris Agreement three times over, new research shows. German-based researcher Climate Analytics last week released Western Australia's Gas Gamble - Implications of natural gas extraction in WA.  

Publications

This report provides key carbon budget benchmarks for the energy and industry sectors for Queensland that are consistent with the state playing its role in national and global efforts to limit global mean warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial.  
Climate change will be the greatest threat to humanity and global ecosystems in the coming years, and there is a pressing need to understand and communicate the impacts of warming, across the perspectives of the natural and social sciences. Hoegh-Guldberg et al. review the climate change–impact literature, expanding on the recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. They provide evidence of the impacts of warming at 1°, 1.5°, and 2°C—and higher—for the physical system, ecosystems, agriculture, and human livelihoods. The benefits of limiting climate change to no more than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels would outweigh the costs.  
Australia’s share of global CO2 emissions from domestic use of fossil fuels was about 1.4% in 2017. Accounting for fossil fuel exports lifts Australia’s global carbon footprint to about 5%. This is equivalent to the total emissions of Russia, which is ranked the fifth biggest CO2 emitter globally. If current government and industry projections for fossil fuel exports are realised, Australia could be responsible for about 13% of Paris Agreement- compatible global CO2 emissions in 2030.  
Shifting energy supply in South Asia and South East Asia to non-fossil fuel-based energy systems in line with the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal and achievement of Sustainable Development Goals  
Together with the Australian Conservation Foundation, we have been analysing Australia’s emissions profile and policies. This factsheet focuses on Australia’s electricity sector and outlines how it compares with other countries.  
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently published its Special Report on 1.5°C (SR15) to guide implementation of the Paris Agreement. Governments are tasked with developing long-term low emission sustainable development strategies (LT-LEDS) in line with the 1.5°C goal, and are invited to submit them by 2020. This briefing lays out the key findings of the IPCC SR15 that inform governments in their task to develop and submit LT-LEDS, and inform the continuous scaling up of near- and mid-term action and targets, including in Nationally Determined contributions (NDCs), in line with the ratcheting-up mechanism enshrined in the Paris Agreement.  
Together with the Australian Conservation Foundation, we have been analysing Australia’s emissions profile and policies. This factsheet focuses on Australia’s vehicle fleet and outlines how it compares with other countries, breaks down the main sources of vehicle emissions and evaluates whether there are policies in place to decarbonise the sector.  

Projects

The project aims to investigate how changes in land cover and land management can help to meet the mitigation and adaptation objectives of the Paris Agreement, as well as the Sustainable Development Goals. The project partners findings will be disseminated through a number of tools, events and products and by closely involving stakeholders and policy-makers, with the aim to support sustainable land use decision-making.  
The "Climate Action Tracker" is an independent science-based assessment, which tracks the emission commitments and actions of countries.  
COP21 Results and Implications for Pathways and Policies for Low Emissions European Societies The Paris Agreement represents an important new strategic context for EU climate policy. Analysing the implications of this new context requires an interdisciplinary approach, combining analysis of the evolution of the international climate regime as well as of NDCs and their socio-economic implications.  
Science and policy to assist and support SIDSs and LDCs to negotiate a strong international climate regime, enabling low carbon development and supporting adaptation needs.  
Implemented under a collaborative framework, this project is designed to provide specific analytical, scientific and strategic information and support to strengthen the capacity of Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Project Period: 2011 - 2012