Mitigation Scenarios and Pathways

 ©Henrike Doebert / Climate Analytics
©Henrike Doebert / Climate Analytics

We explore the greenhouse-gas emission reductions necessary to achieve long-term global climate goals, such as holding warming below 1.5 and 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Analysing emissions scenarios from energy-economic models and other sources with coupled carbon-cycle/climate models leads to globally “allowed” ranges of emissions for different greenhouse gases, air pollutants and sectors, as well as associated time- and pathway-dependent mitigation costs and technology portfolios.

Latest

Strategies to recover economically from the COVID-19 crisis need to set us on track towards meeting the Paris Agreement climate goals, attendees of the Placencia Ambition Forum heard during the event organised by the Alliance of Small Island Developing States.  
Australia's catastrophic brush fire season comes as the country continues to insist on a climate loophole that critics say would undermine the Paris Agreement's objective of keeping global warming to relatively safe levels. Coverage of our report on Australia's intent to use 40 year old Kyoto Protocol credits to meet its already insufficient 2030 emission reduction targets.  
Germany will have to boost its national targets and implement appropriate measures, including in the transport sector, if it is to do its part to help keep global warming within 1.5°C, according to a new Climate Analytics study commissioned by the Agora Verkehrswende initiative. It will also have to support the EU in raising its climate ambition.  
To keep warming within the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C limit, in 2020 governments need to increase their climate targets to result in emissions at least 50% lower in 2030 than the levels implied by their current set of Paris Agreement pledges. All governments must act for the best chance to keep global warming within the safer limit, but plummeting costs of renewables make this transformational change possible, according to a new Climate Analytics report released on the first day of the UN Climate Summit in Madrid.  
This report provides key carbon budget benchmarks for the energy and industry sectors for Queensland, Australia, that are consistent with the state playing its role in national and global efforts to limit global mean warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The 1.5°C warming limit in the Paris Agreement is particularly important as it provides the best chance of survival for the Great Barrier Reef, a critical natural and economic asset for Queensland and World Heritage site.  
Queensland's current carbon emissions would "virtually guarantee the extinction of most of the Great Barrier Reef" within 12 years if replicated worldwide, according to a new report. The report by Climate Analytics recommends Queensland stop burning coal for power by 2030 to play its part in keeping global heating to 1.5 Celsius under the UN's Paris Agreement targets, agreed to by Australia in 2016.  

Publications

Deutschland wird seine nationalen Ziele verstärken und geeignete Maßnahmen ergreifen müssen, um die Ziele des Pariser Klimaabkommens zu erreichen. Dies wird laut der Studie von Climate Analytics, im Auftrag von Agora Verkehrswende, erhebliche Anstrengungen im Verkehrssektor erfordern. Auch das bevölkerungsreichste Land der EU wird sich seiner Verantwortung stellen müssen.  
This report provides key carbon budget benchmarks for the energy and industry sectors for Queensland that are consistent with the state playing its role in national and global efforts to limit global mean warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial.  
Climate change will be the greatest threat to humanity and global ecosystems in the coming years, and there is a pressing need to understand and communicate the impacts of warming, across the perspectives of the natural and social sciences. Hoegh-Guldberg et al. review the climate change–impact literature, expanding on the recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. They provide evidence of the impacts of warming at 1°, 1.5°, and 2°C—and higher—for the physical system, ecosystems, agriculture, and human livelihoods. The benefits of limiting climate change to no more than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels would outweigh the costs.  
Australia’s share of global CO2 emissions from domestic use of fossil fuels was about 1.4% in 2017. Accounting for fossil fuel exports lifts Australia’s global carbon footprint to about 5%. This is equivalent to the total emissions of Russia, which is ranked the fifth biggest CO2 emitter globally. If current government and industry projections for fossil fuel exports are realised, Australia could be responsible for about 13% of Paris Agreement- compatible global CO2 emissions in 2030.  

Projects

The Paris Agreement commits all countries to take ambitious steps to guarantee a low carbon future. This requires individual national governments to submit more ambitious emission reduction targets. In support of this urgent need to translate global trajectories to be in line with the Paris Agreement, this project, founded by the IKEA Foundation, shows how a group of countries, across all regions and development spectrum can update their NDCs to be in line with the Paris climate goals.  
The project aims to investigate how changes in land cover and land management can help to meet the mitigation and adaptation objectives of the Paris Agreement, as well as the Sustainable Development Goals. The project partners findings will be disseminated through a number of tools, events and products and by closely involving stakeholders and policy-makers, with the aim to support sustainable land use decision-making.  
The "Climate Action Tracker" is an independent science-based assessment, which tracks the emission commitments and actions of countries.  
COP21 Results and Implications for Pathways and Policies for Low Emissions European Societies The Paris Agreement represents an important new strategic context for EU climate policy. Analysing the implications of this new context requires an interdisciplinary approach, combining analysis of the evolution of the international climate regime as well as of NDCs and their socio-economic implications.  
Science and policy to assist and support SIDSs and LDCs to negotiate a strong international climate regime, enabling low carbon development and supporting adaptation needs.