Mitigation Scenarios and Pathways

 ©Henrike Doebert / Climate Analytics
©Henrike Doebert / Climate Analytics

We explore the greenhouse-gas emission reductions necessary to achieve long-term global climate goals, such as holding warming below 1.5 and 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Analysing emissions scenarios from energy-economic models and other sources with coupled carbon-cycle/climate models leads to globally “allowed” ranges of emissions for different greenhouse gases, air pollutants and sectors, as well as associated time- and pathway-dependent mitigation costs and technology portfolios.

Latest

The world could get on track to avert catastrophic climate change by investing a tenth of a planned $12 trillion in pandemic recovery packages in reducing dependence on fossil fuels, according to a study published on Thursday. The world could start to bring the Paris Agreement 1.5°C temperature target within reach if governments used 10% of the planned stimulus to back climate-friendly projects such as renewable energy or energy efficiency every year for the next five years, according to the paper, published in the journal Science.  
A post-lockdown economic recovery plan that incorporates and emphasises climate-friendly choices could help significantly in the battle against global warming, according to a new study. This is despite the sudden reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutants during lockdown having a negligible impact on holding down global temperature change.  
Strategies to recover economically from the COVID-19 crisis need to set us on track towards meeting the Paris Agreement climate goals, attendees of the Placencia Ambition Forum heard during the event organised by the Alliance of Small Island Developing States.  
Australia's catastrophic brush fire season comes as the country continues to insist on a climate loophole that critics say would undermine the Paris Agreement's objective of keeping global warming to relatively safe levels. Coverage of our report on Australia's intent to use 40 year old Kyoto Protocol credits to meet its already insufficient 2030 emission reduction targets.  

Publications

Deutschland wird seine nationalen Ziele verstärken und geeignete Maßnahmen ergreifen müssen, um die Ziele des Pariser Klimaabkommens zu erreichen. Dies wird laut der Studie von Climate Analytics, im Auftrag von Agora Verkehrswende, erhebliche Anstrengungen im Verkehrssektor erfordern. Auch das bevölkerungsreichste Land der EU wird sich seiner Verantwortung stellen müssen.  
This report provides key carbon budget benchmarks for the energy and industry sectors for Queensland that are consistent with the state playing its role in national and global efforts to limit global mean warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial.  

Projects

The Paris Agreement commits all countries to take ambitious steps to guarantee a low carbon future. This requires individual national governments to submit more ambitious emission reduction targets. In support of this urgent need to translate global trajectories to be in line with the Paris Agreement, this project, founded by the IKEA Foundation, shows how a group of countries, across all regions and development spectrum can update their NDCs to be in line with the Paris climate goals.  
The project aims to investigate how changes in land cover and land management can help to meet the mitigation and adaptation objectives of the Paris Agreement, as well as the Sustainable Development Goals. The project partners findings will be disseminated through a number of tools, events and products and by closely involving stakeholders and policy-makers, with the aim to support sustainable land use decision-making.  
The "Climate Action Tracker" is an independent science-based assessment, which tracks the emission commitments and actions of countries.  
COP21 Results and Implications for Pathways and Policies for Low Emissions European Societies The Paris Agreement represents an important new strategic context for EU climate policy. Analysing the implications of this new context requires an interdisciplinary approach, combining analysis of the evolution of the international climate regime as well as of NDCs and their socio-economic implications.  
Science and policy to assist and support SIDSs and LDCs to negotiate a strong international climate regime, enabling low carbon development and supporting adaptation needs.