Climate Policy Analysis

We provide analysis and expert information on existing and required emissions reductions measures and policies to assist SIDS and LDCs in strengthening their negotiating positions and ambition in the negotiations.

Coal Mine Garzweiler ©Bert Kaufmann, CC BY-SA 2.0
Coal Mine Garzweiler ©Bert Kaufmann, CC BY-SA 2.0

We assess the effectiveness of international strategies and national climate policies, including low carbon development plans, in meeting global climate goals and reducing greenhouse gas emissions whilst meeting sustainable development goals. We analyse the effectiveness of mitigation pledges made in the UNFCCC process, as well as national policies aimed at mitigation. Our findings are made publicly available, which is intended to increase transparency and to encourage countries to make pledges, if they have not yet done so, or to increase their level of national action.

Contact
Dr. (h.c.) Bill Hare

Members of the Climate Policy team Fabio Sferra and Marcia Rocha at COP20, Lima.
Members of the Climate Policy team Fabio Sferra and Marcia Rocha at COP20, Lima.

Our areas of expertise include:

  • Mitigation options and adequacy of action
  • Emission gap assessment
  • Co-benefits of mitigation
  • Equity options and analyses – download the Climate Analytics Equity Methodology briefing
  • INDCs

Latest

The COVID-19 pandemic could have been the decisive moment in the fight against climate change -- an opportunity for leaders to bail out the environment and pivot the planet toward a greener future. Instead, CNN has found that some of the biggest fossil fuel-producing countries are injecting taxpayer money into propping up polluting industries. And exclusive new data shows these decisions are taking the world a step closer to a climate catastrophe. This extensive CNN interactive feature is based on data from the Climate Action Tracker and features insights from Climate Analytics' CEO Bill Hare.  
A post-lockdown economic recovery plan that incorporates and emphasises climate-friendly choices could help significantly in the battle against global warming, according to a new study. This is despite the sudden reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutants during lockdown having a negligible impact on holding down global temperature change.  
In a new report, international climate change experts argue that South Korea will have to more than double its current emissions reduction target if it’s to shoulder its fair share of reductions while keeping its commitments under the Paris Agreement. “The important thing is for the Korean government to strengthen its 2030 emissions target to bring it in line with the Paris Agreement. Key to that is accelerating the supply of renewable energy as quickly as possible so that coal plants can be shut down within 10 years,” said Ursula Fuentes, a senior climate policy adviser at Climate Analytics.  
South Korea must double its greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets to fulfil its obligation under the Paris climate agreement, our new report shows. Significantly strengthening its 2030 climate target would also help ensure South Korea can achieve its recently announced goal of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050, which would be very difficult under current emission trajectory.  
Strategies to recover economically from the COVID-19 crisis need to set us on track towards meeting the Paris Agreement climate goals, attendees of the Placencia Ambition Forum heard during the event organised by the Alliance of Small Island Developing States.  
The likely emissions from the proposed Burrup Hub LNG project in Western Australia would significantly undermine the state’s and Australia’s ability to meet Paris Agreement targets and shift the burden of deeper reductions onto other sectors to compensate, our latest report shows.  

Publications

The Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal is to be achieved on the basis of equity. Accomplishing this goal will require carbon dioxide removal (CDR), yet existing plans for CDR deployment are insufficient to meet potential global needs, and equitable approaches for distributing CDR responsibilities between nations are lacking.This study applies two common burden-sharing principles to show how CDR responsibility could be shared between regions in 1.5°C and 2°C mitigation pathways.  
Australia’s largest liquefied natural gas producer, Woodside, plans a regional hub on the Burrup Peninsula in Western Australia, which would enable it to develop trillions of cubic feet of gas over the next decades. This report outlines the implications of the emissions Burrup Hub would produce on Western Australia's ability to meet its climate targets.  
Under the Paris Agreement, Australia has committed to reduce its emissions by 26- 28% below 2005 levels by 2030. Australia is now considering whether to count what it portrays as “overachievement” under the Kyoto protocol, toward its emission reduction commitment (Nationally Determined Contribution, or NDC) for 2030 under the Paris Agreement. This paper explores the rule set giving rise to Australia's claim of this "overachievement", and concludes that it would not be legitimate or defensible -- from a factual, legal or equity perspective -- for Australia to use Kyoto Protocol “overachievement” toward its Paris Agreement NDC.  
Existing market mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol have accrued an available supply of some 4.65 Gt CO2 worth of carbon offsets, largely allocated to China, India, and Brazil. Were these credits to be rolled over into the mechanisms outlined by Article 6 of the Paris agreement, nearly 40% of existing ambition outlined by countries in their NDCs would be wiped away.  

Projects

The Paris Agreement commits all countries to take ambitious steps to guarantee a low carbon future. This requires individual national governments to submit more ambitious emission reduction targets. In support of this urgent need to translate global trajectories to be in line with the Paris Agreement, this project, founded by the IKEA Foundation, shows how a group of countries, across all regions and development spectrum can update their NDCs to be in line with the Paris climate goals.  
All governments which ratified the Paris Agreement are required to produce a new round of climate action plans, or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), in 2020, as part of their commitment to achieve its objectives. Contributing to this process, Climate Analytics has conducted studies exploring the link between forest governance in the Congo Basin countries and the NDCs.  
The NAVIGATE project aims to enhance the capability of Integrated Assessment Models to account for distributional impacts of climate change and to describe transformative change in the economy. The research will help to gain insights on how long-term climate goals can be translated into short term climate policy measures, and how countries and sectors can work together to implement the Paris Agreement.  
This project aims to facilitate knowledge exchange and the promotion of best practices for Paris Agreement-compatible climate action in the transport and building sectors in Central and Eastern Europe, focusing on Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.  
The "Climate Action Tracker" is an independent science-based assessment, which tracks the emission commitments and actions of countries.  
This research project is a collaboration between nine European institutions. It takes a fresh look at how the EU 2020 Strategy can achieve its goal of smart, sustainable and inclusive economic growth, particularly undertaking novel complexity approaches to the integration of policies involving the nexus between water, food, energy, land use and climate change.