Climate Policy Analysis

We provide analysis and expert information on existing and required emissions reductions measures and policies to assist SIDS and LDCs in strengthening their negotiating positions and ambition in the negotiations.

Coal Mine Garzweiler ©Bert Kaufmann, CC BY-SA 2.0
Coal Mine Garzweiler ©Bert Kaufmann, CC BY-SA 2.0

We assess the effectiveness of international strategies and national climate policies, including low carbon development plans, in meeting global climate goals and reducing greenhouse gas emissions whilst meeting sustainable development goals. We analyse the effectiveness of mitigation pledges made in the UNFCCC process, as well as national policies aimed at mitigation. Our findings are made publicly available, which is intended to increase transparency and to encourage countries to make pledges, if they have not yet done so, or to increase their level of national action.

Contact
Dr. (h.c.) Bill Hare

Members of the Climate Policy team Fabio Sferra and Marcia Rocha at COP20, Lima.
Members of the Climate Policy team Fabio Sferra and Marcia Rocha at COP20, Lima.

Our areas of expertise include:

  • Mitigation options and adequacy of action
  • Emission gap assessment
  • Co-benefits of mitigation
  • Equity options and analyses – download the Climate Analytics Equity Methodology briefing
  • INDCs

Latest

This AFP piece covers our latest publication, which finds that the emissions of just five economies, China, the US, the EU, India and Russia, over the period 1991-2030 will double the number of countries experiencing extreme hot years every second year by 2030.  
This Deutsche Welle piece references our recent report "Why Gas is the New Coal." Governments and fossil fuel companies have long peddled the idea that natural gas is the "bridge" to a clean energy future. But can gas actually be green?  
This article references our climate policy analysis Team Leader, Deborah Ramalope. South Africa is proposing to deepen its emissions cuts by almost a third in 2030, according to a draft climate plan published last week.  

Publications

The contributions of single greenhouse gas emitters to country-level climate change are generally not disentangled, despite their relevance for climate policy and litigation. Here, we quantify the contributions of the five largest emitters (China, US, EU-27, India, and Russia) to projected 2030 country-level warming and extreme hot years with respect to pre-industrial climate using an innovative suite of Earth System Model emulators.  
In Paris, all governments solemnly promised to come to COP26 with more ambitious 2030 commitments to close the massive 2030 emissions gap that was already evident in 2015. Three years later the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C reinforced the scientific imperative, and earlier this year it called a climate “code red.” Now, at the midpoint of Glasgow, it is clear there is a massive credibility, action and commitment gap that casts a long and dark shadow of doubt over the net zero goals put forward by more than 140 countries, covering 90% of global emissions.  
Here, we provide a first quantification of a few key takeaways for natural gas in a world that implements the Paris Agreement and limits warming to 1.5°C.  
53 countries have signed up to the Global Methane Pledge, committing to cut methane emissions by 30% in 2030 from 2020 levels. In 2019, these countries made up 30% of global methane emissions and around 34% of total global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This analysis quantifies the potential impacts of the pledge if all countries were to adopt it.  
This report, commissioned by the Independent Global Stocktake (iGST), seeks to understand: (a) how seven diverse countries use UNFCCC guidance at the national level to influence policy and politics, and (b) the implications of these findings for the framing and use of the outcomes from the GST in 2023 as an important input into the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in 2025. The report also seeks to identify the conditions under which the GST could have more effect on in-country processes and makes proposals for how the GST could be made more relevant at that national level and how the iGST can play a role in this regard.  

Projects

The Paris Agreement commits all countries to take ambitious steps to guarantee a low carbon future. This requires individual national governments to submit more ambitious emission reduction targets. In support of this urgent need to translate global trajectories to be in line with the Paris Agreement, this project, founded by the IKEA Foundation, shows how a group of countries, across all regions and development spectrum can update their NDCs to be in line with the Paris climate goals.  
All governments which ratified the Paris Agreement are required to produce a new round of climate action plans, or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), in 2020, as part of their commitment to achieve its objectives. Contributing to this process, Climate Analytics has conducted studies exploring the link between forest governance in the Congo Basin countries and the NDCs.  
The NAVIGATE project aims to enhance the capability of Integrated Assessment Models to account for distributional impacts of climate change and to describe transformative change in the economy. The research will help to gain insights on how long-term climate goals can be translated into short term climate policy measures, and how countries and sectors can work together to implement the Paris Agreement.  
The "Climate Action Tracker" is an independent science-based assessment, which tracks the emission commitments and actions of countries.  
This research project is a collaboration between nine European institutions. It takes a fresh look at how the EU 2020 Strategy can achieve its goal of smart, sustainable and inclusive economic growth, particularly undertaking novel complexity approaches to the integration of policies involving the nexus between water, food, energy, land use and climate change.  
This project seeks to address current gaps and overlaps in the policy framework for passenger transport emissions in Hungary, Lithuania, Poland and Romania. This project is part of the European Climate Initiative (EUKI) – a project financing instrument by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU).