Climate Policy Analysis

We provide analysis and expert information on existing and required emissions reductions measures and policies to assist SIDS and LDCs in strengthening their negotiating positions and ambition in the negotiations.

Coal Mine Garzweiler ©Bert Kaufmann, CC BY-SA 2.0
Coal Mine Garzweiler ©Bert Kaufmann, CC BY-SA 2.0

We assess the effectiveness of international strategies and national climate policies, including low carbon development plans, in meeting global climate goals and reducing greenhouse gas emissions whilst meeting sustainable development goals. We analyse the effectiveness of mitigation pledges made in the UNFCCC process, as well as national policies aimed at mitigation. Our findings are made publicly available, which is intended to increase transparency and to encourage countries to make pledges, if they have not yet done so, or to increase their level of national action.

Contact
Dr. (h.c.) Bill Hare

Members of the Climate Policy team Fabio Sferra and Marcia Rocha at COP20, Lima.
Members of the Climate Policy team Fabio Sferra and Marcia Rocha at COP20, Lima.

Our areas of expertise include:

  • Mitigation options and adequacy of action
  • Emission gap assessment
  • Co-benefits of mitigation
  • Equity options and analyses – download the Climate Analytics Equity Methodology briefing
  • INDCs

Latest

The world’s climate pledges so far are only enough to reduce global carbon dioxide emissions to less than 1% below 2010 levels by 2030, according to the UNFCCC. Instead of limiting the world to only 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming since pre-industrial times — the more stringent of two Paris accord goals — the data shows that world “is headed to close to 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) and a global catastrophe if this is not curtailed quickly,” said Bill Hare, director of Climate Analytics.  
Many large countries, including the US, the EU, and Australia's key coal and gas markets China, Japan, South Korea, are looking at deeper emission reductions. But Australia appears to be going backwards. Now another issue has arisen from its inaction: border taxes - Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare commentary in The Guardian.  
The European Union Council is meeting 10-11 December to revise its 2030 domestic emissions reduction target. The Council has an unprecedented opportunity to cement the EU's global leadership on climate change by adopting a target that is fully consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit. Our new briefing shows the domestic emission reductions needed by 2030 for the EU27 and three of its key member states – France, Germany and Poland - to be in line with that limit.  
A new analysis, seen by the BBC, suggests the goals of the UN Paris climate agreement are getting "within reach." The Climate Action Tracker group looked at new climate promises from China and other nations, along with the carbon plans of US President-elect Joe Biden. These commitments would mean the rise in world temperatures could be held to 2.1C by the end of this century. Previous estimates indicated up to 3C of heating, with disastrous impacts.  
Pledges to cut emissions made by Joe Biden, the US president-elect, and China have helped put the world “within striking distance” of meeting the most ambitious goal of the Paris Agreement on climate change, a report says. If governments fulfil all their promises to become carbon neutral within 30 or 40 years, the global temperature increase could be limited to 2.1C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, according to the assessment by two not-for-profit research groups.  

Publications

This briefing outlines why long-term strategies are a fundamental component of national climate policy architecture, and how SIDS can benefit from developing one, both directly in terms of prioritising efforts for achieving the Paris Agreement goals, and indirectly through synergies with other sustainable development and resilience goals. While we focus here on the energy sector – the largest source of emissions for SIDS – an effective LTS should consider all sectors, as well as the interlinkages between them.  
This report presents domestic emissions pathways required to keep to the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit for five countries: Viet Nam, Philippines, India, Indonesia and Japan and assesses if current 2030 climate targets are in line with these pathways. Pathways are derived from the pathways assessed in the IPCC Special Report 1.5°C. Key decarbonisation benchmarks for the power sector consistent with 1.5°C emissions pathways are also provided.  
Southeast Asia is one of the hotspots for global energy development. This report by Climate Analytics, supported by Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, looks into the need to stop the expansion of coal and phasing out coal for power generation to avoid the catastrophic climate change impacts that threaten the region.  
Because of the international community’s delay in cutting carbon emissions, some degree of reliance on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) options is now inevitable to achieve the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal. This report seeks to answer questions regarding implementation of CDR options at scale. Can the sustainability challenges, risks and trade-offs inherent in large-scale CDR efforts be managed? What governance tools would need to be in place to deploy CDR options at the levels the IPCC says are needed? Can provisions under the current climate change regime support implementation at scale, or will further provisions and incentives be needed?  
This report, prepared by Climate Analytics for the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, provide insights into how Asia and the Pacific region can transition away from coal to a renewable based efficient energy system compatible with the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals.  
Achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement requires increased global climate action, especially towards the production and use of synthetic e-fuels. This paper, produced for the German Federal Environmental Authority (Umweltbundesamt UBA), focuses on aviation and maritime transport and the role of green hydrogen for indirect electrification of industry sectors.  

Projects

The Paris Agreement commits all countries to take ambitious steps to guarantee a low carbon future. This requires individual national governments to submit more ambitious emission reduction targets. In support of this urgent need to translate global trajectories to be in line with the Paris Agreement, this project, founded by the IKEA Foundation, shows how a group of countries, across all regions and development spectrum can update their NDCs to be in line with the Paris climate goals.  
All governments which ratified the Paris Agreement are required to produce a new round of climate action plans, or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), in 2020, as part of their commitment to achieve its objectives. Contributing to this process, Climate Analytics has conducted studies exploring the link between forest governance in the Congo Basin countries and the NDCs.  
The NAVIGATE project aims to enhance the capability of Integrated Assessment Models to account for distributional impacts of climate change and to describe transformative change in the economy. The research will help to gain insights on how long-term climate goals can be translated into short term climate policy measures, and how countries and sectors can work together to implement the Paris Agreement.  
The "Climate Action Tracker" is an independent science-based assessment, which tracks the emission commitments and actions of countries.  
This research project is a collaboration between nine European institutions. It takes a fresh look at how the EU 2020 Strategy can achieve its goal of smart, sustainable and inclusive economic growth, particularly undertaking novel complexity approaches to the integration of policies involving the nexus between water, food, energy, land use and climate change.  
This project seeks to address current gaps and overlaps in the policy framework for passenger transport emissions in Hungary, Lithuania, Poland and Romania. This project is part of the European Climate Initiative (EUKI) – a project financing instrument by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU).