Climate Negotiations

SIDS and LDCs are the most vulnerable countries to climate change impacts. We provide negotiation support tailored to their specific circumstances and concerns.

 ©Henrike Doebert / Climate Analytics
©Henrike Doebert / Climate Analytics

Henrike Doebert

Feature: 1.5°C temperature limit – key facts

Small Island Developing States and Least Developed Countries have been calling for limiting global temperature rise to below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels since 2009 . We’ve created an information pool for material to help answer some key questions about the 1.5°C temperature goal in the run up to COP21:

  • Why 1.5°C? Science, impacts and risks.
  • What will it take to limit warming below 1.5°C?
  • What is needed in the Paris Agreement for 1.5°C?
 ©Photo by Vicky courtesy Flickr
©Photo by Vicky courtesy Flickr

Our areas of expertise include:

Development of new climate agreement
Climate Analytics works closely with LDCs and SIDS to support their participation in the UNFCCC negotiations and other multilateral climate negotiations and fora relevant to achieving a new climate agreement in 2015. In doing so, we aim to empower and enable the most vulnerable countries to have their special circumstances and concerns heard and reflected in the outcomes of the negotiation processes.

Assessment of INDCs
Climate Analytics partners with three other research organisations to produce the Climate Action Tracker (CAT), an independent science-based assessment that tracks the emission commitments and actions of countries. In preparation for the adoption of a new global climate agreement in December 2015, the CAT is providing an up-to-date assessment and rating of submitted “intended nationally determined contributions” (INDCs). Periodically the CAT will assess the global consequences of the INDCs for global warming and the emissions gap between INDCs, policies and emissions levels needed to limit warming below 2oC.

Real-time assessment of options
We provide analyses, briefings and talking points for LDCs and SIDS negotiators on policy options under negotiation in real-time to enable effective participation in negotiations on core issues.


Science underpinning the global treaty aiming to stop average temperatures rising more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels needs more research. Climate News Network's Alex Kirby in Climate Home on our latest research around the 1.5˚C long term temperature limit.  
Brexit unlikely to slow momentum towards global climate deal coming into force, with EU left to tackle complex negotiations with UK. Under a scenario published by Climate Analytics, a global network of policy specialists, 50 countries covering 53.28% of global emissions are likely to sign off the UN pact by the end of 2016.  
15 countries accounting for 0.04% of emissions ratified the Paris Agreement during the UN signing ceremony in New York. Another 23 nations accounting for 51% of emissions have declared their intention to follow by the end of 2016, according to a tracker by Climate Analytics. It brings the double threshold tantalisingly close. So what would it take to get over the finish line?  
Climate Analytics event focusing of some of the key issues for vulnerable countries following the adoption of the Paris Agreement, an exploration of what the 1.5°C temperature limit means for European climate policy and steps in the implementation of the agreement.  
In freezing President Barack Obama's plan to tackle carbon emissions, the US Supreme Court delivered a blow to a global climate deal - but experts say that US commitments to the deal will survive. Bill Hare: "The Paris Agreement will ride through this. There are many challenges ahead and I am more concerned about countries like Japan pressing ahead with coal than this action by the US Supreme Court."  
The actions outlined in the Paris pledges would be expected to lead to global warming of around 3°C. Given that there has already been about 1°C of warming, the measures required to stay below 1.5°C would be beyond heroic. Work by Joeri Rogelj and colleagues suggests that it would mean net emissions having to fall to zero in at most 40 years.  


Following adoption of the Paris Agreement, a number of questions have been raised related to signature, ratification and entry into force of the Paris Agreement, some practical, some strategic. This briefing looks at issues that relate to the possibility of early entry into force, the status of Party INDCs both pre-ratification and post-ratification, protection of the Paris Agreement's 1.5 degree temperature limitation goal, and the implications of decision 1/CP.21 on the Paris Agreement's treatment of loss and damage.  
The term ‘climate neutrality’ is currently resonating in the climate policy arena and is included in the collective mitigation goal (Article 3.1) of the draft Paris Agreement. A close look at this relatively new and scientifically ill defined term and its potential implications reveals a fundamental risk that this term will be used to undermine efforts to reduce CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions and be used to introduce dangerous geo-engineering approaches into the climate regime.  


Science and policy to assist and support SIDSs and LDCs to negotiate a strong international climate regime, enabling low carbon development and supporting adaptation needs.  
Implemented under a collaborative framework, this project is designed to provide specific analytical, scientific and strategic information and support to strengthen the capacity of Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Project Period: 2011 - 2012  
PREVENT is built around a team of experienced climate scientists and analysts, whose objective is to provide science, policy, strategic and analytical support for delegations of the LDCs and SIDS, backed by science-based models to assess and synthesize climate science. Project Period: 2008 - 2011