Least Developed Countries (LDCs) – 46 countries highly vulnerable to economic and environmental shocks — contribute little to global emissions. In 2019 they were responsible for just over 1% of emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes.

And yet LDCs are taking action. At the UN Secretary General’s Climate Action Summit in 2019, LDCs launched the LDC Group Vision toward a climate-resilient future – which calls for all LDCs to be on climate-resilient development pathways by 2030 and to deliver net zero emissions by 2050.

Guided by this overarching Group vision, individual long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (LT-LEDS or LTS) provide a beneficial space for each LDC government to set out a visionary blueprint for a resilient, decarbonised future, compatible with limiting warming to 1.5°C.

An LTS is essential for guiding near-term ambition and actions, aligning investment with Paris Agreement goals, and taking advantage of synergies between mitigation, development and adaptation needs.

At COP21 in 2015, all governments were invited to submit LTSs by 2020, but few developing countries were able to meet this timeframe. In 2021 at COP26, the Glasgow Climate Pact again urged countries that had not yet done so to bring forward an LTS by COP27. Since the Glasgow session, the UNFCCC Executive Secretary has also communicated directly with governments, urging the communication of new or updated LTSs by November 2022 (COP27).

Progress is being made. As of June 1, 2022, 51 countries have officially submitted an LTS to the UNFCCC Secretariat. This number includes three LDCs: Cambodia, Nepal and Benin. The Gambia also has prepared a 2050 Climate Vision, available on its Government website, and other LDC LTSs are in the preparation phase. The first-ever LTS synthesis report will be prepared by the UNFCCC Secretariat and published by October 2022.

While for many countries, an LTS has as its goal the decarbonisation of carbon-intensive economies, for LDCs the challenge is to develop sustainably along a low-carbon growth path: avoiding the installation and use of carbon-intensive infrastructure, while also protecting valuable ecosystems and planning for increased resilience against climate impacts across all sectors.

An LTS offers significant opportunities for cost savings and development gains for LDCs. The process of developing an LTS can generate a series of co-benefits and opportunities. These include:

policy coherence and support for short-and medium-term planning
the avoidance of stranded assets, caused by short-term planning
planning for climate-resilient infrastructure
upskilling and expanding local employment opportunities in renewable energy technologies and in extractive industries
new sources of funding support for development
greater energy independence and cost savings
reduced trade vulnerabilities
expanded access to affordable energy
enhanced food security
enhanced resilience to climate impacts
prosperity through new growth models, and
improved health outcomes, among many others.

This paper addresses some of the challenges LDCs face in preparing and implementing LTSs, including limited data availability to support economic and socio-economic modelling, human and financial resource constraints and limited institutional capacities. It considers key building blocks of an LTS and identifies the key sectors to be addressed through an LTS, which for most LDCs include the energy sector, the agricultural sector and the land sector. It then highlights some of the important co-benefits that can be derived from LDC preparation and implementation, and outlines some of the resources and support available for preparation and implementation of LTS.

Financial and technical support for LTS development is growing across donor funds, multilateral funds, development banks and intergovernmental initiatives and a number of organisations are now providing their expertise and resources to support the LTS development process.

LTSs are now an essential component of national climate policy architecture. They are also a ticket to greater prosperity for LDCs, due to the many co-benefits that arise from long-term low-emission development planning.

Climate Action Tracker: 2024 warming projection update

Despite an escalating climate crisis marked by unprecedented wildfires, storms, floods, and droughts, the Climate Action Tracker annual global temperature update shows global warming projections for 2100 are flatlining, with no improvement since 2021. The aggregate effect of current policies set the world on a path toward 2.7°C of warming.

Methodology underpinning the State of Climate Action series: 2024 update

This technical note describes the State of Climate Action series’ methodology for identifying sectors that must transform, translating these transformations into global mitigation targets primarily for 2030, 2035 and 2050 and selecting indicators with datasets to monitor annual change. It also outlines the report’s approach for assessing progress made toward near-term targets and comparing trends over time.

Adapting East and Southern Africa’s livestock to climate change

This paper presents a decision-making framework to help livestock farmers in Eastern and Southern Africa select context-specific adaptation strategies in response to climate change. The framework uses a decision tree to evaluate options based on different climate scenarios and systems, offering tailored guidance for various livestock types and regions.

Solar geoengineering: a note to inform discussions on physical climate impacts, risks and governance issues

With international efforts on climate action still not on track to limit warming to 1.5°C, technological fixes that aim to intentionally alter the Earth’s climate, such as solar geoengineering, might seem like appealing options for tackling global warming. But they come with questions in terms of feasibility, impacts and risks, governance and geopolitics, and who may or may not benefit.

Technical guide for the development of long-term low emission development strategies in Africa

This technical guide proposes concrete steps and actions to help African countries develop strong, high-performing Long-Term Low Emission and Climate Resilient Development Strategies that chart a low-emission development path, build resilience, encourage innovation, and create new opportunities for green growth.

Evaluating the near and long-term role of carbon dioxide removal in meeting global climate objectives

For 1.5°C pathways with limited overshoot, most of the mitigation between now and 2030 should come from emissions reductions (70%), with reductions from cutting non-CO2 emissions (20%) and land-based carbon dioxide removals such as afforestation and preventing deforestation (10%) making up the remainder.

Article 6.4 progress update: work of the Supervisory Body on the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism

The Article 6.4 mechanism, now known as the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism, allows countries to trade reductions in carbon emissions in a manner that goes beyond zero-sum offsetting, to achieve their commitments under the Paris Agreement. This briefing aims to update Small Island Developing States and Least Developed Countries on the standards and procedures that have been adopted by the supervising body (Article 6.4) to inform the design of projects.

About us

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Comment

Long term strategies: low carbon growth, resilience and prosperity for Least Developed Countries

Publications

Climate Action Tracker: 2024 warming projection update

Decarbonising light-duty vehicle road transport

Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please!

The role of northern forests in limiting warming to 1.5°C