Navigating the just transition: trends and knowledge for the Caribbean

This report explores how Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS) can advance a just transition from fossil fuels to a sustainable, net-zero future in the face of climate change, economic vulnerability, and limited resources. While the just transition concept has largely developed around high-emitting economies, this report considers it in the Caribbean context, where the challenge is less focused on transitioning large fossil fuel industries and more integrated with fostering resilient, inclusive and sustainable development.

Understanding just transition in the Caribbean context

1. Originally rooted in labour movements, the just transition now encompasses fairness, equity, and inclusion in climate action.
2. For SIDS, it means linking decarbonisation with adaptation, resilience and social justice – not just transition of the workforce.
3. Unlike coal or oil-dependent economies, most Caribbean countries must redefine just transition around sustainable livelihoods, resilience building and financial equity.

Caribbean vulnerability and the urgency of 1.5°C

1. Caribbean SIDS are among the most climate-vulnerable countries globally, facing stronger storms, sea-level rise, coral reef degradation, and loss of livelihoods, among other risks and impacts.
2. Economic fragility, high debt-burdens, and dependence on both tourism and fossil fuel imports exacerbates these risks.
3. Caribbean leaders have championed “1.5°C to stay alive” as a survival threshold, underscoring the irreversible impacts and stakes of climate inaction.

Global action as a pre-requisite

1. No just transition for SIDS is possible without urgent global emissions cuts and compliance with the Paris Agreement.
2. The first Global Stocktake revealed that the global community is off-track with regard to limiting global warming below 1.5°C. Without course correction and accelerated action toward net zero emissions by the middle of the century, lives and livelihoods in SIDS will be severely jeopardised.
3. International legal developments, such as the recent International Court of Justice Advisory Opinion, affirm state obligations under international law to uphold climate commitments.

Re-defining a Caribbean-centric just transition

1. Priorities include reducing fuel import dependency and creating green jobs and enhancing resilience in key sectors like energy, agriculture, fisheries, and tourism.
2. Transition pathways must be participatory and inclusive, and reflective of Caribbean realities, particularly for informal workers, women, and vulnerable communities.
3. Economic diversification, equitable access to finance, and regional cooperation are central to achieving resilience and prosperity.
   

Key sectors and pathways for change include:

1. Energy: Scaling up solar, wind, storage and micro-grids, improving energy efficiency and reducing fossil fuel subsidies.
2. Agriculture and fisheries: Promoting climate smart farming, sustainable aquaculture, and regenerative practices for food security.
3. Tourism: Shifting to greener tourism practices, powered by renewables and conservation.
4. Finance and technology: Expanding access to concessional climate finance, blended finance models and technical training.
   

Challenges to implementation

1. Achieving the recommended changes above is not without limitation due to challenges such as:
2. Financing barriers: high borrowing costs, limited concessional finance, and debt constraints.
3. Infrastructural and technological limitations: outdated grids, dependence on imported technologies, and weak local manufacturing capacity.
4. Institutional gaps: fragmented policies, limited workforce training, and insufficient public awareness.
5. Climate shocks: hurricanes and disasters divert resources away from long-term investments in transition pathways.