Least Developed Countries (LDCs) – 46 countries highly vulnerable to economic and environmental shocks — contribute little to global emissions. In 2019 they were responsible for just over 1% of emissions from fossil fuel and industrial processes.

And yet LDCs are taking action. At the UN Secretary General’s Climate Action Summit in 2019, LDCs launched the LDC Group Vision toward a climate-resilient future – which calls for all LDCs to be on climate-resilient development pathways by 2030 and to deliver net zero emissions by 2050.

Guided by this overarching Group vision, individual long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (LT-LEDS or LTS) provide a beneficial space for each LDC government to set out a visionary blueprint for a resilient, decarbonised future, compatible with limiting warming to 1.5°C.

An LTS is essential for guiding near-term ambition and actions, aligning investment with Paris Agreement goals, and taking advantage of synergies between mitigation, development and adaptation needs.

At COP21 in 2015, all governments were invited to submit LTSs by 2020, but few developing countries were able to meet this timeframe. In 2021 at COP26, the Glasgow Climate Pact again urged countries that had not yet done so to bring forward an LTS by COP27. Since the Glasgow session, the UNFCCC Executive Secretary has also communicated directly with governments, urging the communication of new or updated LTSs by November 2022 (COP27).

Progress is being made. As of June 1, 2022, 51 countries have officially submitted an LTS to the UNFCCC Secretariat. This number includes three LDCs: Cambodia, Nepal and Benin. The Gambia also has prepared a 2050 Climate Vision, available on its Government website, and other LDC LTSs are in the preparation phase. The first-ever LTS synthesis report will be prepared by the UNFCCC Secretariat and published by October 2022.

While for many countries, an LTS has as its goal the decarbonisation of carbon-intensive economies, for LDCs the challenge is to develop sustainably along a low-carbon growth path: avoiding the installation and use of carbon-intensive infrastructure, while also protecting valuable ecosystems and planning for increased resilience against climate impacts across all sectors.

An LTS offers significant opportunities for cost savings and development gains for LDCs. The process of developing an LTS can generate a series of co-benefits and opportunities. These include:

policy coherence and support for short-and medium-term planning
the avoidance of stranded assets, caused by short-term planning
planning for climate-resilient infrastructure
upskilling and expanding local employment opportunities in renewable energy technologies and in extractive industries
new sources of funding support for development
greater energy independence and cost savings
reduced trade vulnerabilities
expanded access to affordable energy
enhanced food security
enhanced resilience to climate impacts
prosperity through new growth models, and
improved health outcomes, among many others.

This paper addresses some of the challenges LDCs face in preparing and implementing LTSs, including limited data availability to support economic and socio-economic modelling, human and financial resource constraints and limited institutional capacities. It considers key building blocks of an LTS and identifies the key sectors to be addressed through an LTS, which for most LDCs include the energy sector, the agricultural sector and the land sector. It then highlights some of the important co-benefits that can be derived from LDC preparation and implementation, and outlines some of the resources and support available for preparation and implementation of LTS.

Financial and technical support for LTS development is growing across donor funds, multilateral funds, development banks and intergovernmental initiatives and a number of organisations are now providing their expertise and resources to support the LTS development process.

LTSs are now an essential component of national climate policy architecture. They are also a ticket to greater prosperity for LDCs, due to the many co-benefits that arise from long-term low-emission development planning.

The 1.5°C limit and risks of overshoot

This briefing looks at what the 1.5°C limit means in terms of adaptation and loss and damage for the most vulnerable countries and regions. It finds that slowing down warming is critical to buy us time to adapt and also to avoid irreversible loss and damage. Even if warming rises above 1.5°C (overshoot) we can bring it down again with ambitious emissions reductions.

Le seuil de +1,5°C et le risque de dépassement de ce seuil

Ce rapport examine ce que la limite de 1,5 °C signifie en termes d'adaptation et de pertes et dommages pour les pays et régions les plus vulnérables. Il constate qu'il est essentiel de ralentir le réchauffement pour nous donner le temps de nous adapter et pour éviter des pertes et des dommages irréversibles. Même si le réchauffement dépasse 1,5 °C, nous pouvons le faire baisser à nouveau en réduisant les émissions de manière ambitieuse.

Effectiveness of water-related adaptation decreases with increasing warming

When it comes to water, adaptation to climate change becomes less effective when warming is above 1.5°C, according to a new study looking at water-related climate risk at 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C of warming. The study finds adaptation needs to go hand-in-hand with ambitious emissions reductions and decarbonisation.

Submission to the Australian Treasury consultation on the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax

As the gas industry in Australia has grown exponentially, the profit taxes it pays to the government have proportionally plummeted, presenting an opportunity to change this regime. Here, we respond to the Australian Government Treasury consultation on the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) – anti-avoidance provisions and clarifying treatment of ‘exploration’ and Mining, Quarrying or Prospecting Rights.

Machine learning evidence map reveals global differences in adaptation action

In this study, we tracked how adaptation policy research has changed globally to create a map of how governments around the world use different tools at different levels and in different regions. We found that while the evidence base is growing, most of this evidence, however, comes from the Global North.

Advisory opinion on "Climate emergency and human rights"

This Amicus Curiae is an advisory opinion requested by the republics of Chile and Colombia on "Climate emergency and human rights". It was presented by Climate Analytics Caribbean to the Inter-American Court of Human Rights. It outlines the intricate intersections of climate change, human rights, and state obligations, with a specific emphasis on the unique challenges faced by Caribbean nations.

About us

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Comment

Long term strategies: low carbon growth, resilience and prosperity for Least Developed Countries

Publications

What good looks like: G7 climate policy 2024 update

The 1.5°C limit and risks of overshoot

Le seuil de +1,5°C et le risque de dépassement de ce seuil

Effectiveness of water-related adaptation decreases with increasing warming

Climate justice and loss and damage: perspectives from the global south

A better integration of health and economic impact assessments of climate change

Tripling renewables by 2030: interpreting the global goal at the regional level

Submission to the Australian Treasury consultation on the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax

Hitzestress und Anpassungsmaßnahmen in der Metropolregion Berlin-Brandenburg

Climatic risks to adaptive capacity

Machine learning evidence map reveals global differences in adaptation action

Advisory opinion on "Climate emergency and human rights"