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Homepage > Publications > Extending Near-Term Emissions Scenarios to Assess Warming Implications of Paris Agreement NDCs’ 17 September, 2018 Extending Near-Term Emissions Scenarios to Assess Warming Implications of Paris Agreement NDCs’Authors Johannes Gütschow, Mairi Louise Jeffery, Michiel Schaeffer, Bill Hare First publishedShare Publications Heavy precipitation hitting vulnerable communities in the UAE and Oman becoming an increasing threat as the climate warmsResearchers have assessed the extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the weather conditions that caused the flooding in the United Arab Emirates and the northern parts of Oman in April 14–15 2024. The region was hit by exceptionally heavy rainfall causing massive disruption in infrastructure and public life in the area and leading to at least 20 fatalities in Oman and four in the UAE. The impacts of multiple tropical cyclone events and associated precipitation on household income and expendituresClimate change-fueled tropical cyclones have already reduced household incomes across the Philippines by 7% on average, according to a new study. This figure rises to more than 20% in some provinces. What good looks like: G7 climate policy 2024 updateThis brief outlines seven key policy recommendations for this June’s G7 summit that, if adopted, would demonstrate the ambition and leadership needed to keep the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit in sight. Mapping the climate risk to urban forests at city scaleThis study uses an urban tree inventory and high-resolution climate projections to identify species and locations at risk from climate change in Melbourne. It finds that half of the tree species in Melbourne are at risk from heat stress, which could climb to two thirds in 2050. The 1.5°C limit and risks of overshootThis briefing looks at what the 1.5°C limit means in terms of adaptation and loss and damage for the most vulnerable countries and regions. It finds that slowing down warming is critical to buy us time to adapt and also to avoid irreversible loss and damage. Even if warming rises above 1.5°C (overshoot) we can bring it down again with ambitious emissions reductions. Hydrologic interpretation of machine learning models for 10-daily streamflow simulation in climate sensitive upper Indus catchmentsThis study augments physical hydrological modeling with machine learning models to simulate surface water flows in Upper Indus water catchments in Pakistan. Le seuil de +1,5°C et le risque de dépassement de ce seuilCe rapport examine ce que la limite de 1,5 °C signifie en termes d'adaptation et de pertes et dommages pour les pays et régions les plus vulnérables. Il constate qu'il est essentiel de ralentir le réchauffement pour nous donner le temps de nous adapter et pour éviter des pertes et des dommages irréversibles. Même si le réchauffement dépasse 1,5 °C, nous pouvons le faire baisser à nouveau en réduisant les émissions de manière ambitieuse. Representing natural climate variability in an event attribution context: Indo-Pakistani heatwave of 2022New study finds that the 2022 Indo-Pakistani heatwave was both more likely to occur and more intense due to increasing global warming – even when accounting for the effects of natural climate variability and the forced response to anthropogenic climate change. Extreme terrestrial heat in 2023Multiple relentless heatwaves occurred in 2023, with much of the world experiencing at least 20 more heatwave days than the 1991–2020 average. This study looks at prominent and record-breaking events around the world. Climate impacts in northern forestsNorthern forests hold around 54% of the world’s total terrestrial carbon stock and contribute more than one-third to our global terrestrial carbon sink. This report reviews the impact of human induced climate change on northern temperate and boreal forests. Effects of idealised land cover and land management changes on the atmospheric water cycleThis study investigates how land cover and land management affects atmospheric moisture transport using global climate models. It finds that cropland expansion is generally causing a drying and reduced local moisture recycling, while afforestation and irrigation expansion generally cause wetting and increased local moisture recycling. Effectiveness of water-related adaptation decreases with increasing warmingWhen it comes to water, adaptation to climate change becomes less effective when warming is above 1.5°C, according to a new study looking at water-related climate risk at 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C of warming. The study finds adaptation needs to go hand-in-hand with ambitious emissions reductions and decarbonisation.
Heavy precipitation hitting vulnerable communities in the UAE and Oman becoming an increasing threat as the climate warmsResearchers have assessed the extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the weather conditions that caused the flooding in the United Arab Emirates and the northern parts of Oman in April 14–15 2024. The region was hit by exceptionally heavy rainfall causing massive disruption in infrastructure and public life in the area and leading to at least 20 fatalities in Oman and four in the UAE.
The impacts of multiple tropical cyclone events and associated precipitation on household income and expendituresClimate change-fueled tropical cyclones have already reduced household incomes across the Philippines by 7% on average, according to a new study. This figure rises to more than 20% in some provinces.
What good looks like: G7 climate policy 2024 updateThis brief outlines seven key policy recommendations for this June’s G7 summit that, if adopted, would demonstrate the ambition and leadership needed to keep the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit in sight.
Mapping the climate risk to urban forests at city scaleThis study uses an urban tree inventory and high-resolution climate projections to identify species and locations at risk from climate change in Melbourne. It finds that half of the tree species in Melbourne are at risk from heat stress, which could climb to two thirds in 2050.
The 1.5°C limit and risks of overshootThis briefing looks at what the 1.5°C limit means in terms of adaptation and loss and damage for the most vulnerable countries and regions. It finds that slowing down warming is critical to buy us time to adapt and also to avoid irreversible loss and damage. Even if warming rises above 1.5°C (overshoot) we can bring it down again with ambitious emissions reductions.
Hydrologic interpretation of machine learning models for 10-daily streamflow simulation in climate sensitive upper Indus catchmentsThis study augments physical hydrological modeling with machine learning models to simulate surface water flows in Upper Indus water catchments in Pakistan.
Le seuil de +1,5°C et le risque de dépassement de ce seuilCe rapport examine ce que la limite de 1,5 °C signifie en termes d'adaptation et de pertes et dommages pour les pays et régions les plus vulnérables. Il constate qu'il est essentiel de ralentir le réchauffement pour nous donner le temps de nous adapter et pour éviter des pertes et des dommages irréversibles. Même si le réchauffement dépasse 1,5 °C, nous pouvons le faire baisser à nouveau en réduisant les émissions de manière ambitieuse.
Representing natural climate variability in an event attribution context: Indo-Pakistani heatwave of 2022New study finds that the 2022 Indo-Pakistani heatwave was both more likely to occur and more intense due to increasing global warming – even when accounting for the effects of natural climate variability and the forced response to anthropogenic climate change.
Extreme terrestrial heat in 2023Multiple relentless heatwaves occurred in 2023, with much of the world experiencing at least 20 more heatwave days than the 1991–2020 average. This study looks at prominent and record-breaking events around the world.
Climate impacts in northern forestsNorthern forests hold around 54% of the world’s total terrestrial carbon stock and contribute more than one-third to our global terrestrial carbon sink. This report reviews the impact of human induced climate change on northern temperate and boreal forests.
Effects of idealised land cover and land management changes on the atmospheric water cycleThis study investigates how land cover and land management affects atmospheric moisture transport using global climate models. It finds that cropland expansion is generally causing a drying and reduced local moisture recycling, while afforestation and irrigation expansion generally cause wetting and increased local moisture recycling.
Effectiveness of water-related adaptation decreases with increasing warmingWhen it comes to water, adaptation to climate change becomes less effective when warming is above 1.5°C, according to a new study looking at water-related climate risk at 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C of warming. The study finds adaptation needs to go hand-in-hand with ambitious emissions reductions and decarbonisation.
