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December 2015

Coal phase-out

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Coal phase-out – global and regional perspective

Phasing out coal from the electricity sector is the single most important step to get in line with 1.5°C. How fast does coal need to be phased out in order to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement, in light of the latest science from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)?

Key dates

Global coal emissions should peak in 2020;
Global coal use in electricity generation must fall by 80% below 2010 levels by 2030;
OECD nations should end coal use entirely by 2030;
All coal-fired power stations must be shut by 2040 at the latest.

Details in our September 2019 report Global and regional coal phase-out requirements of the Paris Agreement: Insights from the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C. This report is an update of our 2016 analysis Implications of the Paris Agreement for coal use in the power sector.

Impact of our work

Our coal reports underpin the global coal phase-out movement by providing science-based benchmarks to establish target coal phase-out dates that are consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.

The Powering Past Coal Alliance, launched at COP23, in its declaration refers directly to the benchmarks provided in our global coal report, to stress that the Paris Agreement requires coal phase-out by 2030 in the OECD countries and by 2050 in the rest of the world. This alliance, in which national and sub-national partners commit to phasing out existing coal power in their jurisdictions, and to introducing a moratorium on any new traditional coal power stations, aims to increase its membership to 50 by 2018.

In Europe, a number of countries and sub-national authorities have established phase-out dates consistent with the 2030 benchmark provided in our reports. The recently launched BeyondCoal European campaign, is aiming at establishing similar commitments in the remaining member states to achieve a coal phase-out in the European Union by 2030.

Expanding our work

Coal is still cheap because it does not factor in the costs of environmental and health impacts, so there is no strong market signal to phase-out. Many developing countries look to coal to meet their rapidly growing energy demand due to its low price, the availability of this technology and blueprints for coal deployment, as well as financing. However, renewable energy is a low cost alternative and many countries are already well on the way in its deployment at scale, while others have a very high potential for its deployment.

We’re in the process of expanding our work on science-based coal phase-out strategies into the Asia-Pacific region. A number of countries in this region are planning to significantly increase their coal capacities.

Phasing out coal is a complex problem; solving it must involve many actors and it must occur on parallel with a phase-in of renewables and integration. We work with partner institutions to develop an analytical framework that encompasses not just coal phase-out but also renewables phase-in and integration, aiming to inform policymakers in developing countries.

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Updates

2030 targets aligned to 1.5°C: evidence from the latest global pathways

Our new method applies sustainability limits and minimises the need for carbon dioxide removal to set key 2030 global targets for renewables, fossil fuels and emissions.

Road towards coal power plant in Niederausse, Germany

G7 moving faster on climate since last Summit, but behind schedule on ending coal and gas

As world leaders gather at the G7 Summit in Hiroshima this weekend, we take a look at progress made since the last Summit on cutting emissions and decarbonising power to see if they’re living up to their promises.

An autonomous excavator prepares trenches for a pipeline installation in Queensland, Australia.

Emissions as usual: implications for the Safeguard Mechanism of LNG and coal mine projects

This report examines the implications of committed and proposed developments in the LNG and coal mining sectors for reform of Australia's Safeguard Mechanism.

Image by RENE RAUSCHENBERGER from Pixabay

Heatwave and war are unveiling the vulnerability of India’s coal dominated power sector

A deadly heatwave has pushed electricity demand to a new high in India. In response, the Indian government plans to increase domestic production and imports of coal. Instead, this crisis should present an opportunity to ramp up its renewables expansion.

Are you kidding, India? Your last-minute Glasgow intervention won’t relieve pressure to ditch coal

Even though India managed to weaken the language on coal phase-out in the Glasgow Climate Pact, the pressure to ditch the fossil fuel is not going away.

Coal phase-out and energy transition pathways for Asia and the Pacific

This report provides insights into how Asia and the Pacific region can transition away from coal to a renewable based efficient energy system compatible with the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals.

Employment opportunities from a coal-to-renewables transition in South Korea

In this brief, we explore the direct employment impacts of a coal-to-renewable transition in South Korea in line with a Paris compatible coal phase-out before 2030. We compare this with the projected outcomes under current policies.

Assessing the health benefits of a Paris-aligned coal phase-out for South Korea

In this work we present two unit-level decommissioning schedules that are aligned with a Paris Agreement compatible CO2 emission reduction pathway. Both of these schedules require 4.2 GW of coal capacity to be retired each year, and units currently under construction would only be able to operate for four years at the most.

Transitioning towards a coal-free society: science based coal phase-out pathway for South Korea under the Paris Agreement

This report explores the implications of the Paris Agreement for coal-fired power generation in South Korea.

G20 Brown to Green Report 2019

The Brown to Green Report 2019 provides a comprehensive overview of all G20 countries, whether – and how well – they are doing on the journey to transition towards a net-zero emissions economy.

Production Gap 2019 Report

The 2019 Production Gap Report highlights the concerning gap between Paris goals and countries’ plans for fossil fuel production.

Scaling up climate action in Indonesia

This report analyses areas where Indonesia could accelerate its climate action. Limiting global temperature increase to 1.5°C is highly relevant for Indonesia as, at 3% of global emissions, it is among the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitters and expected to be among the worst affected by climate change.

Coal mining is one of the drivers of deforestation in East-Kalimantan. flyingfabi, Flickr

Southeast Asia’s plans to expand coal power are undermining the global energy shift

While many parts of the world are shifting away from fossil fuels, Southeast Asia remains a hot spot for coal expansion. The energy mix in Southeast Asia is already a problem for climate change, and it is set to get worse according to recent research, with plans for new coal-fired power plants across the region. This is in stark contrast to the need to phase out coal by 2040 to achieve the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Shifting investment away from fossil fuels in Southeast Asia

This report looks into the need to stop the expansion of coal and phasing out coal for power generation in Southeast Asia to avoid the catastrophic climate change impacts that threaten the region.

1.5°C-consistent benchmarks for enhancing Japan’s 2030 climate target

This policy brief discusses economy-wide and sector-level benchmarks in 2030 and beyond for Japan to be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s long-term 1.5°C warming limit.

For climate's sake: coal-free by 2030

This report sets out sets out the reasons why Australia needs to steeply decrease coal-based electricity generation in the coming years and phase it out entirely by 2030.

About 80% of EU and German, virtually all Polish coal plants non-compliant with new EU 2021 air pollution regulations

Apart from being the largest source of CO2 emissions, coal combustion is also a major threat to public health globally. About 82% of EU, 80% German and virtually all Polish coal power plants do not comply with a new EU regulation on industry air pollution emissions standards that they need to meet by 2021.

German activists protesting the opening of the new coal power plant in Datteln ©Ende Gelände Hamburg

Germany's coal exit law, or the politics of inertia

While it is positive that Germany is moving to legislate a coal exit, the draft law threatens to undermine its place in history as a climate policy leader, as it would allow highly polluting lignite to burn until 2038, well beyond the Paris Agreement compliant 2030 deadline for OECD countries.

The inadequate in pursuit of the out-of-date: Germany’s coal exit must be revised by 2020

Germany's Coal Commission has ignored essential review guidelines of the national climate targets with regard to the Paris Agreement. The commission's plan must be revised already by 2020, alongside the EU's and Germany's targets.

(Article also available in German)

Science-based coal phase-out pathway for Germany in line with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C warming limit: opportunities and benefits of an accelerated energy transition

This report examines for the first time what the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit means for coal phase-out in Germany’s electricity generation. It sets out a coal exit strategy for Germany's electricity supply including co-benefits.

Global and regional coal phase-out requirements of the Paris Agreement: Insights from the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C

This report shows how fast coal needs to be phased out in order to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement, in light of the latest science from the IPCC.

Australia's power supply: brown and polluting

Together with the Australian Conservation Foundation, we have been analysing Australia’s emissions profile and policies. This factsheet focuses on Australia’s electricity sector and outlines how it compares with other countries.

Antofogasta solar. Record low renewable energy costs paved the way to a coal phase out plan in Chile

Paris Tango. Climate action so far in 2018: individual countries step forward, others backward, risking stranded coal assets

The Climate Action Tracker has updated assessments of 23 of the 32 countries whose development on climate action it tracks. While some progress has been made since November, most governments’ policies are still not on track towards meeting their Paris Agreement commitments, many of which are in themselves far from sufficient to keep warming to the agreed 1.5˚C warming limit. The Climate Action Tracker's assessments point to an urgent need for governments to scale up both their policies and targets to bring them more in line with a pathway to limiting warming to 1.5˚C.

Japan at an international crossroads - seeking a sunset for coal

Japan stands at a crossroads ahead of its Presidency of the G20 in 2019. Its potential role as a leader of climate ambition and clean technology depends on it making the right decisions to establish a sunset for coal power generation. This shift must include both its domestic energy policy and its finance for coal technology overseas.

Science based coal phase-out timeline for Japan - Implications for policymakers and investors

This report evaluates whether Japan’s energy policies and long-term targets are compatible with meeting the objectives of the Paris Agreement, and what this means for policymaking and investors.

Smog in Yantai, China. Image by Götz Friedrich from Pixabay

In China and Pakistan's coal romance — where is the love for the climate?

"Winning the future will not be done with technologies of the past" — Climate Analytics' Dr Fahad Saeed writes about Pakistan's plans to massively expand its coal capacity.

A stress test for coal in Europe under the Paris Agreement

This report elaborates a strategy for phasing out coal in the European Union and its member states and provides a science-based shut-down schedule of coal power plants at the individual unit level, in line with the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal.

Implications of the Paris Agreement for coal use in the power sector

This report looks into the implications of the Paris Agreement for coal fired electricity generation. It shows that the Paris Agreement 1.5°C temperature limit requires a quick phase-out of coal used for electric power generation.

The Coal Gap: planned coal-fired power plants inconsistent with 2˚C and threaten achievement of INDCs

The Climate Action Tracker’s analysis released during COP21 in Paris finds that if all coal plants in the pipeline were to be built, by 2030, emissions from coal power would be 400% higher than what is consistent with a 2°C pathway.

Polish power plant. Photo by Marcin Jozwiak on Unsplash

Recent development in the EU’s climate policy: EU trading system reform could stop investment in new coal power plants

The EU ETS reform could lead to an increase in the prices of emissions allowances, which could in in turn stop plans to invest in coal power plants in the EU. The major challenge will now be to reduce emissions in the non-ETS sector, which constitute the majority (57%) of all emissions, such as transport and buildings. To achieve this, member states would need to take much more action to promote improvements in e-mobility, energy efficiency in the building sector an other areas.

Coal's rapid phase-out essential, not enough to stay below 2°C warming

A rapid phase-out of coal as an electricity source by 2050 would reduce warming by half a degree, according to the Climate Action Tracker, in an update released today ahead of the Ban Ki-moon climate summit. Under current Government policies, the world is on track to warm by 3.7°C by 2100.

Australian Energy "Green Paper" foresees continuing increase in coal use: undermines 2°C goal and heads towards 4°C world

Australia's new 'Green Paper' assumes rapid increases in coal demand from Asian economies and proposes to align Australian government policies to facilitate accelerated approval of developments to support this.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

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