Ahead of the UN Climate Action Summit on 23 September, UN Secretary-General Guterres called on governments to stop the approval of new coal power plants entirely by 2020.
This report by Climate Analytics, released for the UN Secretary General’s Climate Action Summit, shows how fast coal needs to be phased out in order to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement, in light of the latest science from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It also assesses whether the efforts to reduce coal use in electricity generation since the adoption of the Paris Agreement put us any closer to a pathway consistent with its 1.5°C limit.
- Although the new coal pipeline shrunk by 75% since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, cancelling new coal is nowhere near enough to meet its 1.5°C limit
- Phasing out coal from the electricity sector is the single most important step to get in line with 1.5°C
- Governments are not on track to phase coal out of the electricity sector in line with the 1.5°C in the Paris Agreement
- To get on a 1.5°C pathway, they will need to introduce effective regulation to shut down coal plants before the end of their technical lifetime and to significantly limit their use in the meantime, and refrain from building new coal capacity
- It is critical that governments significantly scale up their NDCs by 2020. The new pledges must include clear commitments to phase out coal, remove subsidies for fossil fuels, and build support for renewables and energy efficiency
Key dates from the report:
- Global coal emissions should peak in 2020;
- Global coal use in electricity generation must fall by 80% below 2010 levels by 2030;
- OECD nations should end coal use entirely by 2030;
- All coal-fired power stations must be shut by 2040 at the latest.
Unabated: the Carbon Capture and Storage 86 billion tonne carbon bomb aimed at derailing a fossil phase out
The climate talks at COP28 have centred around the need for a fossil fuel phase out. Our analysis quantifies the risk posed by restricting a phase out commitment to only ‘unabated’ fossil fuels.
No change to warming as fossil fuel endgame brings focus onto false solutions
The CAT's annual warming estimate has risen by 0.1˚C to 2.5˚C. The estimate is largely influenced by weak existing targets rather than shifts triggered by updated Nationally Determined Contributions.
When will global greenhouse gas emissions peak?
The IPCC says peaking before 2025 is a critical step to keep the 1.5°C limit within reach. With emissions set to rise in 2023, this leaves limited time to act. To assess if we can meet this milestone, we look at when global emissions might peak, as well as what we can do to get there in time.
Wind and solar benchmarks for a 1.5°C world
This report presents a detailed methodology for determining the amount of wind and solar capacity that is required for a country to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal. While the focus of the report is the method, it includes illustrative benchmarks for Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Germany, South Africa.
A 1.5°C future is possible: getting fossil fuels out of the Philippine power sector
The Philippines is also one of the fastest-growing developing countries: poverty is in decline, access to energy is rising and, with that, demand for energy services. However, fossil fuels still dominate the energy system, accounting for 78% of power generation in 2022. This report sets out what the Philippines government needs to do to get the country’s power sector onto a 1.5˚C compatible emissions pathway, replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy.
Production Gap Report 2023
Governments, in aggregate, still plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The persistence of the global production gap puts a well-managed and equitable energy transition at risk.
Emissions impossible: Unpacking CSIRO GISERA Beetaloo Middle Arm fossil gas emissions estimates
This report provides an independent evaluation of the CSIRO and GISERA assessments of the potential greenhouse gas emissions that would result from the exploitation of the Beetaloo fossil shale gas reserves.
Adjusting 1.5°C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information
This study uses an integrated assessment model to explore how 1.5°C pathways could adjust in light of new adverse information, such as a reduced 1.5°C carbon budget, or slower-than-expected low-carbon technology deployment.
Railway development: lessons for the EU
This paper analyses how EU railway policy for a low-carbon future can be enhanced, drawing insights from Japan and Switzerland.
Ramping up energy storage: lessons for the EU
This paper explores how the EU can enhance its policy for a low-carbon future by learning from successful energy storage approaches in California, South Korea, and Australia.