In this work we present two unit-level decommissioning schedules that are aligned with a Paris Agreement compatible CO2 emission reduction pathway. Both of these schedules require 4.2 GW of coal capacity to be retired each year, and units currently under construction would only be able to operate for four years at the most.

Key findings

To contribute to the achievement of the Paris Agreement, South Korea needs to phase out coal from its electricity sector before 2030. The country’s 9th Basic Plan for Electricity Power Supply and Demand (9th BPESD) presents a unit-level operation schedule for coal power plants that would see nearly 27 GW of coal-fired power capacity still online in 2034, with coal eventually being phased out in 2054, almost 15 years later than is required to be Paris Agreement compatible.

In this work we present two unit-level decommissioning schedules that are aligned with a Paris Agreement compatible CO2 emission reduction pathway. Both of these schedules require 4.2 GW of coal capacity to be retired each year, and units currently under construction would only be able to operate for four years at the most.

Coal-fired power plants are a significant source of air pollution in South Korea, which has been linked to premature deaths due to increased risk for cardiovascular diseases, chronic and acute respiratory diseases, and other health impacts such as pre-term births and depression.

Avoided health impacts under accelerated coal phase out

Following the two Paris-compatible decommissioning schedules presented in this study could halve the number of premature deaths linked to air pollution from South Korean coal plants within the next 5 years and save over 18,000 lives (over 12,000 lives within South Korea) until the end of their operation, when compared to the current policy plan of phasing out coal in 2054.
A corresponding reduction of over 1,700 preterm births (800 within South Korean boundaries), 3,000 new asthma cases (2,500 within South Korean boundaries) and more than 4.6 million work absence days (2.8 million within South Korean boundaries) is estimated to result from the accelerated decommissioning schedule as compared to current policy plans (see Table above).

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Publications

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Methodology underpinning the State of Climate Action series: 2024 update

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Technical guide for the development of long-term low emission development strategies in Africa

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Evaluating the near and long-term role of carbon dioxide removal in meeting global climate objectives

For 1.5°C pathways with limited overshoot, most of the mitigation between now and 2030 should come from emissions reductions (70%), with reductions from cutting non-CO2 emissions (20%) and land-based carbon dioxide removals such as afforestation and preventing deforestation (10%) making up the remainder.

What good looks like: G7 climate policy 2024 update

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Tripling renewables by 2030: interpreting the global goal at the regional level

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

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Assessing the health benefits of a Paris-aligned coal phase-out for South Korea