Limiting global temperature increase to 1.5°C is highly relevant for Indonesia as, at 3% of global emissions (incl. LULUCF), it is among the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitters and expected to be among the worst affected by climate change.

This report, the fourth country assessment in the Climate Action Tracker’s Scaling Up Climate Action Series, analyses areas where Indonesia could accelerate its climate action. The report illustrates GHG emissions reductions from such actions, along with other benefits.

In Indonesia, there is tremendous potential to scale up climate action, especially in the focus areas of this study: electricity supply, passenger transport, and forestry. Increasing climate action now would initiate technically-feasible and socio-economically beneficial sectoral transitions towards a zero-emissions society while directly benefitting Indonesia’s sustainable development agenda.

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Scaling up climate action in the electricity supply, passenger ground transport and forestry sectors, which together covered about 70% of Indonesia’s emissions in 2014, would lead to curbing emissions growth and could achieve a 20% reduction in emissions below 2010 by 2030. This stands in stark contrast to the currently projected 58-68% emissions increase under Indonesia’s Paris Agreement Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). It would initiate Indonesia’s transition towards zero emissions in line with the Paris Agreement and peak Indonesian GHG emissions excluding deforestation and land use shortly after 2030.

To get on track toward Paris Agreement-compatible emissions reductions, Indonesia needs to urgently scale up climate action in the electricity and transport sectors, decarbonising them by 2050, with phasing out coal power generation, ramping up renewable energy generation and electrifying the growing transport fleet, as essential strategies. The Indonesian forestry sector has the single largest potential for reducing domestic emissions and Indonesia can turn its forestry sector into a net sink of carbon emissions by 2030 if takes significant steps to halt peat fires, reduce deforestation rates and restore degraded peatlands.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Publications

Climate Action Tracker: 2024 warming projection update

Despite an escalating climate crisis marked by unprecedented wildfires, storms, floods, and droughts, the Climate Action Tracker annual global temperature update shows global warming projections for 2100 are flatlining, with no improvement since 2021. The aggregate effect of current policies set the world on a path toward 2.7°C of warming.

Decarbonising light-duty vehicle road transport

The Climate Action Tracker provides updated 1.5ºC compatible benchmarks for the transport sector for the world as a whole and for seven individual countries; the US, EU, China, India, Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia.

Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please!

The 2024 edition of UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report shows how much higher nations must aim. To get on a least-cost pathway for 1.5°C, emissions must fall 42 per cent by 2030, compared to 2019 levels. G20 nations, particularly the largest-emitting members, would need to do the heavy lifting.

The role of northern forests in limiting warming to 1.5°C

Northern forests are critical in the race to net zero CO₂ by mid-century. Protecting and restoring these forests, alongside steep and rapid reductions in fossil fuel emissions, is essential both to mitigating emissions and to supporting forest ecosystem services and biodiversity.

Methodology underpinning the State of Climate Action series: 2024 update

This technical note describes the State of Climate Action series’ methodology for identifying sectors that must transform, translating these transformations into global mitigation targets primarily for 2030, 2035 and 2050 and selecting indicators with datasets to monitor annual change. It also outlines the report’s approach for assessing progress made toward near-term targets and comparing trends over time.

LNG shipbuilding industry heading to huge oversupply

The LNG shipbuilding industry appears to be doubling down on building new carriers, ignoring the global shift to a low carbon economy and putting itself into an even worse oversupply situation than a year ago, we find in our updated report.

Setting 1.5°C compatible wind and solar targets

Based on global energy system modelling sense-checked against key national studies, this report presents new analysis on what a 1.5°C-aligned rollout of wind and solar could look like for key countries. It aims to inform target setting for 2030, 2035 and beyond in third generation NDCs.

Technical guide for the development of long-term low emission development strategies in Africa

This technical guide proposes concrete steps and actions to help African countries develop strong, high-performing Long-Term Low Emission and Climate Resilient Development Strategies that chart a low-emission development path, build resilience, encourage innovation, and create new opportunities for green growth.

Evaluating the near and long-term role of carbon dioxide removal in meeting global climate objectives

For 1.5°C pathways with limited overshoot, most of the mitigation between now and 2030 should come from emissions reductions (70%), with reductions from cutting non-CO2 emissions (20%) and land-based carbon dioxide removals such as afforestation and preventing deforestation (10%) making up the remainder.

What good looks like: G7 climate policy 2024 update

This brief outlines seven key policy recommendations for this June’s G7 summit that, if adopted, would demonstrate the ambition and leadership needed to keep the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit in sight.

Tripling renewables by 2030: interpreting the global goal at the regional level

At COP28, governments agreed to triple global renewable capacity by 2030. This report breaks down what a 1.5ºC-aligned renewables rollout would look like at the regional level and calculate the associated investment needs.

Submission to the Australian Treasury consultation on the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax

As the gas industry in Australia has grown exponentially, the profit taxes it pays to the government have proportionally plummeted, presenting an opportunity to change this regime. Here, we respond to the Australian Government Treasury consultation on the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) – anti-avoidance provisions and clarifying treatment of ‘exploration’ and Mining, Quarrying or Prospecting Rights.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

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Scaling up climate action in Indonesia