This policy brief discusses economy-wide and sector-level benchmarks in 2030 and beyond for Japan to be consistent with the Paris Agreement’s long-term 1.5°C warming limit, based on recent analyses by the Climate Action Tracker and its member organisations, NewClimate Institute and Climate Analytics. The benchmarks presented in this brief are set in such a way that the world would not have to rely excessively on unproven negative emission technologies in the second half of this century.

Japan 15C consistent national emissions reduction pathway

On an economy-wide level, we show that for Japan, a domestic greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction of more than 60% below 2013 levels by 2030 would be 1.5°C-consistent. While this is a challenging benchmark, the analysis of mitigation options and scenarios presented in this brief shows how this could be achieved. It is also in line with what would be necessary at a global level to be on a pathway consistent with 1.5°C. It is therefore essential for Japan to consider this range throughout the 2030 Paris Agreement target (Nationally Determined Contribution – or NDC) revision process.

On a sectoral level, transformational changes need to take place in all sectors by 2030. In the power sector, Japan would need to phase out unabated coal-fired power plants by 2030 and increase electricity generation from renewables to about 60% or more to avoid reliance on nuclear or fossil fuels with carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS), and to increase its chance of achieving 100% renewable energy by 2050. It is equally important for Japan to drastically strengthen efforts to reduce energy demand by, for example, energy efficiency, energy service demand through infrastructural changes, and (induced) behavioural changes.

Electrification of end-use sectors is an additional key strategy. While this may lead to higher electricity generation, there are also additional options to further integrate variable renewable energy. Green (renewable energy-based) hydrogen will become another key to decarbonisation in a number of industrial processes, or some of the heavy-duty transport and aviation, where direct electrification is not viable. It is crucial, however, that the hydrogen consumed is produced from renewables and deployed only where alternatives are not available.

We stress that it is most important to deploy existing commercial technologies that are considered essential for 2050 net zero (e.g. existing wind – including offshore wind – and solar PV technologies, zero energy buildings and houses (ZEB/ZEH), electric vehicles (EVs) as much as possible by 2030. Additional investment into the development of innovative technologies, as laid out in the Green Growth Strategy of December 2020, will facilitate Japan achieving net zero by 2050.

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Publications

1.5°C-aligned 2030 and 2035 GHG emissions targets

We have produced factsheets for Australia, China, the EU, India, Indonesia and USA showing 2030 and 2035 greenhouse gas emission reduction milestones for each jurisdiction to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal – both including and excluding land use, land-use change and forestry.

Climate Action Tracker: 2024 warming projection update

Despite an escalating climate crisis marked by unprecedented wildfires, storms, floods, and droughts, the Climate Action Tracker annual global temperature update shows global warming projections for 2100 are flatlining, with no improvement since 2021. The aggregate effect of current policies set the world on a path toward 2.7°C of warming.

Decarbonising light-duty vehicle road transport

The Climate Action Tracker provides updated 1.5ºC compatible benchmarks for the transport sector for the world as a whole and for seven individual countries; the US, EU, China, India, Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia.

Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please!

The 2024 edition of UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report shows how much higher nations must aim. To get on a least-cost pathway for 1.5°C, emissions must fall 42 per cent by 2030, compared to 2019 levels. G20 nations, particularly the largest-emitting members, would need to do the heavy lifting.

The role of northern forests in limiting warming to 1.5°C

Northern forests are critical in the race to net zero CO₂ by mid-century. Protecting and restoring these forests, alongside steep and rapid reductions in fossil fuel emissions, is essential both to mitigating emissions and to supporting forest ecosystem services and biodiversity.

Methodology underpinning the State of Climate Action series: 2024 update

This technical note describes the State of Climate Action series’ methodology for identifying sectors that must transform, translating these transformations into global mitigation targets primarily for 2030, 2035 and 2050 and selecting indicators with datasets to monitor annual change. It also outlines the report’s approach for assessing progress made toward near-term targets and comparing trends over time.

LNG shipbuilding industry heading to huge oversupply

The LNG shipbuilding industry appears to be doubling down on building new carriers, ignoring the global shift to a low carbon economy and putting itself into an even worse oversupply situation than a year ago, we find in our updated report.

Setting 1.5°C compatible wind and solar targets

Based on global energy system modelling sense-checked against key national studies, this report presents new analysis on what a 1.5°C-aligned rollout of wind and solar could look like for key countries. It aims to inform target setting for 2030, 2035 and beyond in third generation NDCs.

Technical guide for the development of long-term low emission development strategies in Africa

This technical guide proposes concrete steps and actions to help African countries develop strong, high-performing Long-Term Low Emission and Climate Resilient Development Strategies that chart a low-emission development path, build resilience, encourage innovation, and create new opportunities for green growth.

Evaluating the near and long-term role of carbon dioxide removal in meeting global climate objectives

For 1.5°C pathways with limited overshoot, most of the mitigation between now and 2030 should come from emissions reductions (70%), with reductions from cutting non-CO2 emissions (20%) and land-based carbon dioxide removals such as afforestation and preventing deforestation (10%) making up the remainder.

What good looks like: G7 climate policy 2024 update

This brief outlines seven key policy recommendations for this June’s G7 summit that, if adopted, would demonstrate the ambition and leadership needed to keep the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit in sight.

Tripling renewables by 2030: interpreting the global goal at the regional level

At COP28, governments agreed to triple global renewable capacity by 2030. This report breaks down what a 1.5ºC-aligned renewables rollout would look like at the regional level and calculate the associated investment needs.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

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1.5°C-consistent benchmarks for enhancing Japan’s 2030 climate target

日本の1.5°Cベンチマーク