How and why we distilled these targets

The IPCC’s sixth assessment report (AR6) provides crucial information on how to tackle climate change, in particular identifying pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot. However, many of the pathways in the AR6 database are not fully Paris Agreement compatible in that they do not bring emissions to net zero in the second half of this century. Many also rely on unsustainable levels of carbon dioxide removal and/or do not factor in recent progress, such as the declining cost of renewables.

In this briefing, we extract 24 pathways from the IPCC AR6 database that can guide the global energy transition to net zero in a sustainable way. These Paris-compatible pathways show what’s needed to limit warming to 1.5°C if we don’t bet on likely unfeasible levels of future carbon dioxide removal. From these we set robust 1.5°C-aligned 2030 targets, including for renewable rollout and fossil fuel decline.

Our five key 2030 global targets aligned to 1.5°C

1. Install at least 1.5 TW of new wind and solar capacity per year by 2030 – that’s a five-fold increase from 2022 levels of 0.3 TW/yr.

Total wind and solar capacity should reach around 10 TW by the end of the decade, five times the 2 TW of capacity in 2022. This target is achievable if the recent acceleration in capacity additions is maintained. It should be seen as a floor – if electricity demand grows as quickly as in the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions scenario, then solar and wind installations would need to be closer to 2 TW/yr by 2030.

2. Set a global renewables target of at least 70% of electricity generation by 2030, more than doubling today’s share of around 30%.

3. Cut global fossil fuel production by 6% each year from 2022 onwards to reduce fossil fuel use by around 40% over the decade.

4. Cut global GHG emissions in half (by 48%) by 2030 compared to 2019.

This is faster than the 43% reduction highlighted by the IPCC and is necessary to significantly reduce dependence on carbon dioxide removal. This means reducing emissions by 8% per year (2021-2030).

5. Cut methane emissions in the energy sector by 66% by 2030.

Methane emissions in the energy sector need to fall around twice as fast as total methane emissions, which drop by 34% over the decade. The 30% cut in the Global Methane Pledge is not aligned with 1.5°C pathways.

*This publication was updated on 22/08/23 (p. 20: 2.7 GtCO2/yr of BECCS by 2050 was corrected to 3.6 Gt CO2/y)

This publication was updated on 29/08/23 (graphs adjusted to acknowledge that they portray the full ensemble range)

Publications

1.5°C-aligned 2030 and 2035 GHG emissions targets

We have produced factsheets for Australia, China, the EU, India, Indonesia and USA showing 2030 and 2035 greenhouse gas emission reduction milestones for each jurisdiction to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal – both including and excluding land use, land-use change and forestry.

Spatially resolved emulated annual temperature projections for overshoot pathways

This study presents a new dataset of annual temperature projections for different overshoot pathways (when the 1.5 °C of global warming limit is exceeded). The data offers a unique opportunity to study local and regional climate change impacts of a range of overshoot scenarios, including when temperature thresholds might be exceeded, and by how much.

Geological Net Zero and the need for disaggregated accounting for carbon sinks

This study in Nature show that definitions of net zero now in widespread use will not actually stop global warming. The paper demonstrates that relying on natural carbon sinks, such as in forests or oceans, to 'offset' ongoing fossil fuel emissions will lead to continued warming.

Climate Action Tracker: 2024 warming projection update

Despite an escalating climate crisis marked by unprecedented wildfires, storms, floods, and droughts, the Climate Action Tracker annual global temperature update shows global warming projections for 2100 are flatlining, with no improvement since 2021. The aggregate effect of current policies set the world on a path toward 2.7°C of warming.

Decarbonising light-duty vehicle road transport

The Climate Action Tracker provides updated 1.5ºC compatible benchmarks for the transport sector for the world as a whole and for seven individual countries; the US, EU, China, India, Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia.

Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please!

The 2024 edition of UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report shows how much higher nations must aim. To get on a least-cost pathway for 1.5°C, emissions must fall 42 per cent by 2030, compared to 2019 levels. G20 nations, particularly the largest-emitting members, would need to do the heavy lifting.

The role of northern forests in limiting warming to 1.5°C

Northern forests are critical in the race to net zero CO₂ by mid-century. Protecting and restoring these forests, alongside steep and rapid reductions in fossil fuel emissions, is essential both to mitigating emissions and to supporting forest ecosystem services and biodiversity.

Methodology underpinning the State of Climate Action series: 2024 update

This technical note describes the State of Climate Action series’ methodology for identifying sectors that must transform, translating these transformations into global mitigation targets primarily for 2030, 2035 and 2050 and selecting indicators with datasets to monitor annual change. It also outlines the report’s approach for assessing progress made toward near-term targets and comparing trends over time.

LNG shipbuilding industry heading to huge oversupply

The LNG shipbuilding industry appears to be doubling down on building new carriers, ignoring the global shift to a low carbon economy and putting itself into an even worse oversupply situation than a year ago, we find in our updated report.

Fracking the Kimberley: the Canning Basin development plans

We've calculated the climate implications of fracking the Canning basin, part of the remote and pristine Kimberley region in Western Australia. Four companies have their eyes on this region, home to the endangered bilby.

Setting 1.5°C compatible wind and solar targets

Based on global energy system modelling sense-checked against key national studies, this report presents new analysis on what a 1.5°C-aligned rollout of wind and solar could look like for key countries. It aims to inform target setting for 2030, 2035 and beyond in third generation NDCs.

Technical guide for the development of long-term low emission development strategies in Africa

This technical guide proposes concrete steps and actions to help African countries develop strong, high-performing Long-Term Low Emission and Climate Resilient Development Strategies that chart a low-emission development path, build resilience, encourage innovation, and create new opportunities for green growth.

About us

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Comment

2030 targets aligned to 1.5°C: evidence from the latest global pathways