1 September, 2021

Global Update: Climate target updates slow as science demands action

Authors

Claire Stockwell, Claire Fyson, Andreas Geiges, Deborah Ramalope, Bill Hare, Matt Gidden, Jonas Hörsch, Gaurav Ganti, Michiel Schaeffer, Hanna Fekete, Niklas Höhne, Louise Jeffery, Mia Moisio, Maria Jose de Villafranca Casas, Frederic Hans, Silke Mooldijk, Leonardo Nascimento, Niklas Illenseer

Download publication First published

Code red

The new IPCC report on climate science has reinforced the absolute urgency of closing the 2030 emissions gap if there is to be any chance of limiting warming to 1.5°C. While people are suffering from ever more severe and frequent impacts of climate change around the globe, and the IPCC has yet again clearly demonstrated the feasibility and urgency of climate change mitigation, action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions continues to lag behind what is needed – in practically all countries and sectors. International climate finance to support action in developing countries is falling short. Even countries with strong targets are mostly not on track to meet them, while more have failed to bring forward stronger commitments for 2030.

Gap narrowed only slowly

NDC updates submitted so far in 2020–2021 have narrowed the gap to what is needed for 1.5°C only by up to around 4 GtCO2e, or up to 15%. Of particular concern are governments - Australia, Brazil, Indonesia Mexico, New Zealand, Russia, Singapore, Switzerland and Viet Nam - that have failed to lift ambition at all – they have submitted the same or even less ambitious 2030 targets than they had put forward in 2015. These countries need to rethink their choice. There are still over 70 countries that have yet to submit an updated target.

CAT Graph Emissions Gaps2030 PNG Medium 2021 05

New CAT rating system highlights lack of action

The new comprehensive CAT rating system reveals a few lone frontrunners, but most government targets and actions remain highly or critically insufficient. For domestic action, only one developed country has a domestic target that is rated under the CAT’s new rating system as “1.5°C compatible” (UK), and some are close (EU, Germany, Norway). Domestic targets are, however, only one dimension of the actions needed for Paris compatibility. None of these governments have put forward sufficient international climate finance - which is absolutely essential for ambitious action in those developing countries needing support to reduce emissions - nor do they have sufficient policies in place. As a consequence, the EU, Germany and Norway are rated as “Insufficient” in the new overall CAT rating, whilst the UK is slightly better rated as “Almost sufficient”. Only one country – a developing country – The Gambia scored an overall 1.5 degree compatibility in the new CAT rating system launched with this update.

More targets and actions are needed

Almost all developed countries need to further strengthen their targets to reduce emissions as fast as possible, to implement national policies to meet them, and to support more developing countries to make the transition. Developing countries also need to update their targets and policies, but also show a pathway for how they could also reduce their emissions as fast as possible if they were supported financially - and to clearly indicate the support they need.

Urgently need to scale up

Positive developments need to urgently be scaled up: some countries have significantly updated their targets and implemented new policies (USA, EU, Germany). Such positive movements need to urgently be followed by all other countries. Governments need to take advantage of the drop in renewable energy and storage costs and ramp up their installation. They must cancel their coal construction plans, and drop plans and funding for gas pipelines and new terminals.

2030 targets are the ones that counts

The most important target date is 2030, by which time global emissions must be cut by 50%, and governments are nowhere near this. We estimate that with current actions global emissions will be at roughly today’s level in 2030, we would be emitting twice as much as required for the 1.5°C limit.

Net zero targets

The wave of national mid-century net zero targets give reasons for hope, but will fail without sufficient 2030 reductions. There needs to be alignment between 2030 targets and net zero goals for the latter to be believable. Our assessment shows that most net zero targets are formulated vaguely and do not yet conform with good practice. Robust short-term targets and pathways towards achieving them are required to fully realise their ambition. If fully implemented, the net zero targets on the table, in combination with the 2030 goals on the table so far, could reduce global temperature increase to around 2.0°C in the CAT optimistic case, based on our briefing from May 2021.

Latest country assessments

We have updated our analysis and ratings for countries based on our new, more comprehensive rating system. A summary of the results is below and you can view all the analysis for the individual countries starting from here.

CAT 2021 09 Ratings Details 1 Overall Rating

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Publications

1.5°C-aligned 2030 and 2035 GHG emissions targets

We have produced factsheets for Australia, China, the EU, India, Indonesia and USA showing 2030 and 2035 greenhouse gas emission reduction milestones for each jurisdiction to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal – both including and excluding land use, land-use change and forestry.

Climate Action Tracker: 2024 warming projection update

Despite an escalating climate crisis marked by unprecedented wildfires, storms, floods, and droughts, the Climate Action Tracker annual global temperature update shows global warming projections for 2100 are flatlining, with no improvement since 2021. The aggregate effect of current policies set the world on a path toward 2.7°C of warming.

Decarbonising light-duty vehicle road transport

The Climate Action Tracker provides updated 1.5ºC compatible benchmarks for the transport sector for the world as a whole and for seven individual countries; the US, EU, China, India, Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia.

Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please!

The 2024 edition of UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report shows how much higher nations must aim. To get on a least-cost pathway for 1.5°C, emissions must fall 42 per cent by 2030, compared to 2019 levels. G20 nations, particularly the largest-emitting members, would need to do the heavy lifting.

The role of northern forests in limiting warming to 1.5°C

Northern forests are critical in the race to net zero CO₂ by mid-century. Protecting and restoring these forests, alongside steep and rapid reductions in fossil fuel emissions, is essential both to mitigating emissions and to supporting forest ecosystem services and biodiversity.

Methodology underpinning the State of Climate Action series: 2024 update

This technical note describes the State of Climate Action series’ methodology for identifying sectors that must transform, translating these transformations into global mitigation targets primarily for 2030, 2035 and 2050 and selecting indicators with datasets to monitor annual change. It also outlines the report’s approach for assessing progress made toward near-term targets and comparing trends over time.

LNG shipbuilding industry heading to huge oversupply

The LNG shipbuilding industry appears to be doubling down on building new carriers, ignoring the global shift to a low carbon economy and putting itself into an even worse oversupply situation than a year ago, we find in our updated report.

Setting 1.5°C compatible wind and solar targets

Based on global energy system modelling sense-checked against key national studies, this report presents new analysis on what a 1.5°C-aligned rollout of wind and solar could look like for key countries. It aims to inform target setting for 2030, 2035 and beyond in third generation NDCs.

Technical guide for the development of long-term low emission development strategies in Africa

This technical guide proposes concrete steps and actions to help African countries develop strong, high-performing Long-Term Low Emission and Climate Resilient Development Strategies that chart a low-emission development path, build resilience, encourage innovation, and create new opportunities for green growth.

Evaluating the near and long-term role of carbon dioxide removal in meeting global climate objectives

For 1.5°C pathways with limited overshoot, most of the mitigation between now and 2030 should come from emissions reductions (70%), with reductions from cutting non-CO2 emissions (20%) and land-based carbon dioxide removals such as afforestation and preventing deforestation (10%) making up the remainder.

What good looks like: G7 climate policy 2024 update

This brief outlines seven key policy recommendations for this June’s G7 summit that, if adopted, would demonstrate the ambition and leadership needed to keep the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit in sight.

Tripling renewables by 2030: interpreting the global goal at the regional level

At COP28, governments agreed to triple global renewable capacity by 2030. This report breaks down what a 1.5ºC-aligned renewables rollout would look like at the regional level and calculate the associated investment needs.

About us

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Comment