Australia's 2030 emissions: states lead the way

It is widely anticipated the Australian Federal Government will soon announce an increase in projected emissions cuts by 2030 under a business-as-usual scenario. This new Climate Analytics report, commissioned by the Australian Conservation Foundation, can reveal virtually none of the gains are a result of the Federal Government’s own policy. The anticipated emissions reductions are largely due to climate action implemented by state governments and a shift in international markets by countries adhering to the Paris Agreement.

Summary

In December 2020, the Federal Government projected Australia’s emissions would reach roughly 22% below 2005 levels by 2030 which falls short of its 26-28% Paris Agreement target.

We anticipate the Federal Government will soon announce an increase in projected emissions reductions for 2030 under a business-as-usual scenario.

This report reveals virtually none of the likely reductions are a result of the Federal Government’s own policy.

The anticipated emissions reductions are largely due to climate action implemented by state governments in the power sector and electric vehicles, earlier retirement of coal, trends in the land sector, market pressure on gas companies – and a shift in international markets for coal and LNG expected in countries adhering to the Paris Agreement.

Considering those factors, this analysis shows that emissions are due to be reduced by 30-38% by 2030, exceeding the Federal Government’s current 2030 Paris target, but not due to its own climate action.

The States are leading the way by increasing renewable energy, rolling out strong electric vehicles policies and dealing with land clearance issues.

The early closure of coal plant: Victoria’s brown coal plant in Yallourn, Latrobe Valley, and units at the NSW black coal Eraring plant, will also assist in bringing down emissions.

The Federal Government’s claim that it is “meeting and beating” its targets is a falsehood because it is doing little but claiming credit from the hard work of Australia’s states and territories.

This report makes it clear that to increase ambition, the Federal Government will need to commit to a target well beyond the anticipated 2030 reduction of 30-38% by 2030.

This report provides three clear scenarios that show the Federal Government can easily raise the ambition of its 2030 target to reach 50-60% below 2005 levels.

Australia needs a Federal Government that leads the way.