Santa Marta opens a new front for fossil fuel phase out
Claudio Forner, Dr Neil Grant, Bill Hare
A willing coalition has begun to test how countries can move faster
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The first Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels in Santa Marta has just concluded. As the fallout from yet another fossil fuel price crisis underlines the extreme fragility of the current fossil energy system, Santa Marta created a space for countries that want to move faster and to talk seriously about how to leave coal, oil and gas behind.
This space was important. The countries gathered in Santa Marta did not include all the world’s major emitters / fossil fuel producers, but this was a feature, not a bug. With some countries acting as blockers of climate action in the UNFCCC, creating space to discuss fossil fuel phase-out within a group of the willing can actually help build momentum that drives action, moving beyond constraints that have stalled elsewhere.
But the Santa Marta participants still account for a meaningful share of the global fossil fuel economy, including major importers and exporters. They represent large shares of fossil fuel trade: 48% of gas imports, 34% of oil imports, 20% of coal imports, 39% of coal exports, 32% of gas exports and 22% of oil exports. What these countries do now – particularly as buyers – could shape investment signals, trade relationships, and the expectations placed on producers, to help shift the political economy of fossil fuels.
The road to Santa Marta
The Santa Marta conference has emerged in response to multiple different elements of global climate diplomacy. However, key to understanding Santa Marta is the Global Stocktake (GST). The first GST, concluded in Dubai in 2023, included an agreement across all countries to “accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels”, as part of the COP28 energy package. It is this commitment that Santa Marta was focused on.
The CAT has shown that implementing the transition away from fossil fuels, alongside action to cut methane emissions, could dramatically slow down warming almost immediately and cut 2100 warming by 0.9ºC, and would represent the biggest step forwards in climate action since the signing of Paris Agreement. Implementing the Global Stocktake is crucial for a liveable planet. We have the technical solutions – what is missing is the political will to drive implementation at the scale and pace needed.
If the process initiated at Santa Marta can catalyse greater political momentum to implement the GST energy package, it would truly represent the historic breakthrough that we need.
The Santa Marta workstreams
Participating countries have agreed to continue the conversation, including via a second conference in 2027, hosted by Ireland and Tuvalu. They also set up three key workstreams going forwards – around roadmaps, finance, and dialogue between fossil fuel importers and exporters.
New TAFF roadmaps represent a clear opportunity to turn political energy into national implementation, including by informing the next generation of NDCs and strengthening alignment with LT-LEDS as the backbone of long-term transition planning. These roadmaps need to align with the latest science around limiting overshoot of 1.5ºC, reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions and getting temperature back below 1.5ºC well before 2100, to reduce the risk of severe and irreversible impacts. This means cutting production and use this decade, avoiding new fossil fuel lock-in, and sequencing the transition in ways that are socially and financially credible.
New roadmaps also need to tackle all fossil fuels, not just some. Further lock-in to gas remains a risk in many countries. Roadmaps also need to go beyond just phase-out dates, and address the myriad political, social, financial and institutional barriers to a rapid phase-out. Santa Marta saw the first new TAFF roadmap launched by France – more will follow. Divisions still remain within the Santa Marta attendees about how fast fossil fuels need to exit the system. With notable fossil fuel exporters like Australia, Canada and Norway among the attendees, how willing these countries really are to produce TAFF roadmaps that align with the science remains to be seen, especially given their plans to continue and even expand fossil fuel production.
Climate Analytics helped coordinate a workstream on roadmap architecture at the academic pre-conference, and will work with partners to support the development of science-aligned, ambitious and fair TAFF roadmaps.
Meanwhile, economic diversification remains an unavoidable issue. Many developing countries face high debt burdens, limited fiscal space and real dependence on fossil fuel revenues for public budgets and debt payments. The transition cannot be framed as a simple choice between ambition and delay when some countries are financially locked into fossil fuel production. There can be no transition without revenue replacement. Debt relief, concessional finance, diversification support and targeted partnerships for highly dependent countries must be part of any serious pathway forward.
Finally, Santa Marta highlighted the practical value of producer-consumer cooperation. One promising idea was coordination among major fossil fuel importers: a buyers’ coalition that sends a clear signal that future trade relationships must align with fossil fuel phase-out, economic diversification and clean energy investment. The outlines of such producer-consumer alignment remain unclear, and such cooperation would face real design challenges, including trade rules and equity concerns. But it could help shift the politics from abstract ambition to concrete incentives. Importing countries have leverage, and using that leverage responsibly could help drive a just and orderly transition. The recently agreed just transition mechanism and finance and trade discussions to be launched this year may all have a role to play in progressing this cooperation.
The role of science in guiding a fossil phase-out
Science has always been central to climate action, and Santa Marta was no different. Participants stressed that climate action must be supported by the best scientific information. Its importance was recognised by the establishment of a scientific panel on the global energy transition (SPGET), which will generate scientific evidence to support the advance of the different workstreams.
Beyond this, there was an explosion of scientific activity around the conference, including an academic pre-conference organised by scientists that aimed to inform the outcomes of the conference through a set of “12 actionable insights” on how to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels.
It is vital that the global energy transition away from fossil fuels occurs at a rate and scale fast enough to limit peak warming to as close to 1.5ºC as possible, and enable us to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions in the 2nd half of the century. Climate Analytics’ Highest Possible Ambition scenario demonstrates the pace of change we need – coal phased out by 2050, gas around 2060 and oil by 2070.
Top-down global insights are important, but can only get you so far. They need to be complemented with bottom-up processes that foreground country ownership and co-creation with national stakeholders.The scientific community can help provide this finer level of resolution to complement the more top-down such as the SPGET.
The workstream on roadmap architecture that Climate Analytics co-convened brought together experts from across energy systems, economics, policy and diplomacy. This holistic expertise will be key in providing actionable insights to countries seeking to develop TAFF roadmaps, and we will work to ensure this expertise is available to those who need it.
Where next for multilateralism?
There was also a wider political signal. A willing coalition showed that blockages in broader climate negotiations need not define the whole agenda. Countries with different interests - importers, exporters, small island states, developing economies and industrialised countries - began identifying where cooperation may be possible.
The question remains of how cooperation will move forward in the themes described above, where options range from a light touch space for sharing experiences to more active cooperation on policy coordination or establishing action-oriented alliances around technical and financial support.
In all of this, the connection to the Paris Agreement and the GST - and how this process feeds back into and strengthens countries’ NDCs - is key. While frustrations with the UNFCCC exist, the GST has delivered the crucial commitment on transitioning away from fossil fuels. What is missing is determined implementation of the GST at pace and scale. If Santa Marta can help drive the implementation of the GST, it will address some of the main concerns around the UNFCCC process, and could help restore faith in multilateralism. If instead, Santa Marta initiates yet another talking shop that repackages existing (inadequate) policies and fails to drive new action, it could further undermine trust in the multilateral systems’ ability to address the climate crisis.
The test is whether cautious optimism now turns into action and whether, absent the so-called blockers, this group can bridge political differences and galvanise action around leaving all fossil fuels behind.
