For selected EU member states (Germany, Finland, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain), the assessment finds that:

All selected member states should cut their greenhouse gas emissions to at least 47% below 1990 levels by 2030 (excluding LULUCF), and in some countries up to 76%. Of the seven member states assessed, none have introduced sufficient policies to align with domestic (national) mitigation pathways derived from globally cost-effective 1.5°C pathways.
In national 1.5°C-consistent pathways, rapid deployment of wind and solar enables the power sector to reach near-zero emissions in the 2030s. In all seven member states, coal is phased out of the power sector by 2030. In the most ambitious pathways, fossil gas is phased out between 2028 and 2040.
Widespread electrification is a central component of decarbonisation. Electricity provides 53-73% of final energy in the seven countries in 2050. Electrification allows renewables to displace fossil fuels in the energy mix, but also strongly reduces final energy demand, due to the greater efficiency of electric technologies.
Member states can achieve strong reductions in final energy demand via electrification, efficiency improvements and societal change. Demand-side policies can help accelerate emissions reductions and reduce supply-side challenges, thereby acting as an ‘enabler’ of the 1.5°C energy-system transformation. In the seven selected countries, final energy demand falls by up to 54% in 2050, relative to 2019 levels.
Renewables provide 33-82% of the countries’ final energy demand in 2030, rising to above 90% by 2050. Residual fossil fuel demand is largely concentrated in aviation and non-energy use, where synthetic fuels and renewable feedstocks represent the main source of competition.

Key milestones in 1 5 compatible power sector transitions

This publication was produced as a deliverable under the project 4i-TRACTION — Innovation, investment, infrastructure and sector integration: TRAnsformative policies for a ClimaTe-neutral European UnION.

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Publications

Climate Action Tracker: 2024 warming projection update

Despite an escalating climate crisis marked by unprecedented wildfires, storms, floods, and droughts, the Climate Action Tracker annual global temperature update shows global warming projections for 2100 are flatlining, with no improvement since 2021. The aggregate effect of current policies set the world on a path toward 2.7°C of warming.

Decarbonising light-duty vehicle road transport

The Climate Action Tracker provides updated 1.5ºC compatible benchmarks for the transport sector for the world as a whole and for seven individual countries; the US, EU, China, India, Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia.

Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please!

The 2024 edition of UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report shows how much higher nations must aim. To get on a least-cost pathway for 1.5°C, emissions must fall 42 per cent by 2030, compared to 2019 levels. G20 nations, particularly the largest-emitting members, would need to do the heavy lifting.

The role of northern forests in limiting warming to 1.5°C

Northern forests are critical in the race to net zero CO₂ by mid-century. Protecting and restoring these forests, alongside steep and rapid reductions in fossil fuel emissions, is essential both to mitigating emissions and to supporting forest ecosystem services and biodiversity.

Methodology underpinning the State of Climate Action series: 2024 update

This technical note describes the State of Climate Action series’ methodology for identifying sectors that must transform, translating these transformations into global mitigation targets primarily for 2030, 2035 and 2050 and selecting indicators with datasets to monitor annual change. It also outlines the report’s approach for assessing progress made toward near-term targets and comparing trends over time.

LNG shipbuilding industry heading to huge oversupply

The LNG shipbuilding industry appears to be doubling down on building new carriers, ignoring the global shift to a low carbon economy and putting itself into an even worse oversupply situation than a year ago, we find in our updated report.

Setting 1.5°C compatible wind and solar targets

Based on global energy system modelling sense-checked against key national studies, this report presents new analysis on what a 1.5°C-aligned rollout of wind and solar could look like for key countries. It aims to inform target setting for 2030, 2035 and beyond in third generation NDCs.

Technical guide for the development of long-term low emission development strategies in Africa

This technical guide proposes concrete steps and actions to help African countries develop strong, high-performing Long-Term Low Emission and Climate Resilient Development Strategies that chart a low-emission development path, build resilience, encourage innovation, and create new opportunities for green growth.

Evaluating the near and long-term role of carbon dioxide removal in meeting global climate objectives

For 1.5°C pathways with limited overshoot, most of the mitigation between now and 2030 should come from emissions reductions (70%), with reductions from cutting non-CO2 emissions (20%) and land-based carbon dioxide removals such as afforestation and preventing deforestation (10%) making up the remainder.

What good looks like: G7 climate policy 2024 update

This brief outlines seven key policy recommendations for this June’s G7 summit that, if adopted, would demonstrate the ambition and leadership needed to keep the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit in sight.

Tripling renewables by 2030: interpreting the global goal at the regional level

At COP28, governments agreed to triple global renewable capacity by 2030. This report breaks down what a 1.5ºC-aligned renewables rollout would look like at the regional level and calculate the associated investment needs.

Submission to the Australian Treasury consultation on the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax

As the gas industry in Australia has grown exponentially, the profit taxes it pays to the government have proportionally plummeted, presenting an opportunity to change this regime. Here, we respond to the Australian Government Treasury consultation on the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) – anti-avoidance provisions and clarifying treatment of ‘exploration’ and Mining, Quarrying or Prospecting Rights.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

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Transformative change to achieve 1.5°C: an EU member state assessment