For selected EU member states (Germany, Finland, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain), the assessment finds that:

All selected member states should cut their greenhouse gas emissions to at least 47% below 1990 levels by 2030 (excluding LULUCF), and in some countries up to 76%. Of the seven member states assessed, none have introduced sufficient policies to align with domestic (national) mitigation pathways derived from globally cost-effective 1.5°C pathways.
In national 1.5°C-consistent pathways, rapid deployment of wind and solar enables the power sector to reach near-zero emissions in the 2030s. In all seven member states, coal is phased out of the power sector by 2030. In the most ambitious pathways, fossil gas is phased out between 2028 and 2040.
Widespread electrification is a central component of decarbonisation. Electricity provides 53-73% of final energy in the seven countries in 2050. Electrification allows renewables to displace fossil fuels in the energy mix, but also strongly reduces final energy demand, due to the greater efficiency of electric technologies.
Member states can achieve strong reductions in final energy demand via electrification, efficiency improvements and societal change. Demand-side policies can help accelerate emissions reductions and reduce supply-side challenges, thereby acting as an ‘enabler’ of the 1.5°C energy-system transformation. In the seven selected countries, final energy demand falls by up to 54% in 2050, relative to 2019 levels.
Renewables provide 33-82% of the countries’ final energy demand in 2030, rising to above 90% by 2050. Residual fossil fuel demand is largely concentrated in aviation and non-energy use, where synthetic fuels and renewable feedstocks represent the main source of competition.

Key milestones in 1 5 compatible power sector transitions

This publication was produced as a deliverable under the project 4i-TRACTION — Innovation, investment, infrastructure and sector integration: TRAnsformative policies for a ClimaTe-neutral European UnION.

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Publications

What good looks like: G7 climate policy 2024 update

This brief outlines seven key policy recommendations for this June’s G7 summit that, if adopted, would demonstrate the ambition and leadership needed to keep the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit in sight.

Tripling renewables by 2030: interpreting the global goal at the regional level

At COP28, governments agreed to triple global renewable capacity by 2030. This report breaks down what a 1.5ºC-aligned renewables rollout would look like at the regional level and calculate the associated investment needs.

Submission to the Australian Treasury consultation on the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax

As the gas industry in Australia has grown exponentially, the profit taxes it pays to the government have proportionally plummeted, presenting an opportunity to change this regime. Here, we respond to the Australian Government Treasury consultation on the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) – anti-avoidance provisions and clarifying treatment of ‘exploration’ and Mining, Quarrying or Prospecting Rights.

COP28 initiatives will only reduce emissions if followed through

Few of the sectoral initiatives announced during COP28 will meaningfully contribute to closing the emissions gap. Many of them lack either the ambition, clarity, coverage or accountability needed to really make a difference.

Unabated: the Carbon Capture and Storage 86 billion tonne carbon bomb aimed at derailing a fossil phase-out

The climate talks at COP28 have centred around the need for a fossil fuel phase-out. Our analysis quantifies the risk posed by restricting a phase-out commitment to only ‘unabated’ fossil fuels.

No change to warming as fossil fuel endgame brings focus onto false solutions

The CAT's annual warming estimate has risen by 0.1˚C to 2.5˚C. The estimate is largely influenced by weak existing targets rather than shifts triggered by updated Nationally Determined Contributions.

Submission on Australia's future gas strategy

The Australian government asked for answers to its questions around the future of its gas strategy. This was our submission.

When will global greenhouse gas emissions peak?

The IPCC says peaking before 2025 is a critical step to keep the 1.5°C limit within reach. With emissions set to rise in 2023, this leaves limited time to act. To assess if we can meet this milestone, we look at when global emissions might peak, as well as what we can do to get there in time.

Wind and solar benchmarks for a 1.5°C world

This report presents a detailed methodology for determining the amount of wind and solar capacity that is required for a country to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal. While the focus of the report is the method, it includes illustrative benchmarks for Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Germany, South Africa.

A 1.5°C future is possible: getting fossil fuels out of the Philippine power sector

The Philippines is also one of the fastest-growing developing countries: poverty is in decline, access to energy is rising and, with that, demand for energy services. However, fossil fuels still dominate the energy system, accounting for 78% of power generation in 2022. This report sets out what the Philippines government needs to do to get the country’s power sector onto a 1.5˚C compatible emissions pathway, replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy.

State of Climate Action 2023

This report finds that global efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C are failing across the board, with recent progress made on every indicator – except electric vehicle sales – lagging behind the pace and scale needed to address the climate crisis.

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Production Gap Report 2023

Governments, in aggregate, still plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The persistence of the global production gap puts a well-managed and equitable energy transition at risk.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

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Transformative change to achieve 1.5°C: an EU member state assessment