The current level of near-term emissions reductions governments put forward in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) is not consistent with the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C, and puts the world on track for almost double that limit. If not enhanced, these NDCs would put the 1.5°C limit out of reach. This report looks into what level of change is needed to bring the next round of NDCs, due in 2020, in line with the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal.

Key points

The Paris Agreement requires all parties to bring forward revised and more ambitious NDCs by 2020. What level of change do we need to see by this deadline to bring the NDCs in line with the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal?

Getting NDCs in line with the 1.5°C limit requires a transformational ramping up of ambition for the period to 2030 and beyond. This means collective improvement in ambition that yields a 50% reduction from the 2030 emissions levels implied by current NDCs. This level of ambition would need to be part of long-term strategies to enable sustained emission reductions over the following decades.

All countries need to increase ambition if the 1.5°C temperature goal is to be met. All countries have an important role to play in ramping up ambition, provided that big emitters lead the way.

A 35% reduction from the 2030 emissions levels implied by current NDCs., would bring substantial progress towards closing the global ambition gap but would not meet the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal. Warming would be held just below 2°C (median 1.7°C by 2100).

An incremental increase of ambition – a 20% reduction below the level implied in current 2030 NDC targets – would put the 1.5°C temperature goal out of reach. If incremental increases in ambition were continued beyond 2030, warming would reach over 2°C.

Increased transparency, clarity and integrity in the 2020 updates would make it easier to assess collective progress and identify opportunities for improvement. But increased transparency and integrity cannot be traded for increased ambition in mitigation targets – the two should come hand-in-hand.

Ignoring the need to significantly ramp up efforts now risks locking in fossil fuel-based infrastructure, thus slowing the pace of transformation and making it more costly, with a large risk of stranded assets.

There are multiple examples from around the world, as well as key market trends, show that a substantial ramping up of ambition is not only possible, but is economically beneficial and is already happening in many sectors and countries.

These include the remarkable cost decrease in renewable energy technologies since 2015, when most of the NDCs were prepared and/or submitted. Countries could achieve much higher emission reductions at the same or even lower cost than what was foreseen for their current NDCs. These cost reductions can be the springboard for transformational ambition in NDCs in 2020.

There are considerable benefits for sustainable development associated with increasing mitigation efforts and ambition consistent with the Paris Agreement. For example, shifting to renewable energy and phasing out fossil fuels can reduce air pollution and its associated health impacts, improve energy access in rural areas, and provide employment.

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Publications

Climate Action Tracker: 2024 warming projection update

Despite an escalating climate crisis marked by unprecedented wildfires, storms, floods, and droughts, the Climate Action Tracker annual global temperature update shows global warming projections for 2100 are flatlining, with no improvement since 2021. The aggregate effect of current policies set the world on a path toward 2.7°C of warming.

Decarbonising light-duty vehicle road transport

The Climate Action Tracker provides updated 1.5ºC compatible benchmarks for the transport sector for the world as a whole and for seven individual countries; the US, EU, China, India, Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia.

Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please!

The 2024 edition of UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report shows how much higher nations must aim. To get on a least-cost pathway for 1.5°C, emissions must fall 42 per cent by 2030, compared to 2019 levels. G20 nations, particularly the largest-emitting members, would need to do the heavy lifting.

The role of northern forests in limiting warming to 1.5°C

Northern forests are critical in the race to net zero CO₂ by mid-century. Protecting and restoring these forests, alongside steep and rapid reductions in fossil fuel emissions, is essential both to mitigating emissions and to supporting forest ecosystem services and biodiversity.

Methodology underpinning the State of Climate Action series: 2024 update

This technical note describes the State of Climate Action series’ methodology for identifying sectors that must transform, translating these transformations into global mitigation targets primarily for 2030, 2035 and 2050 and selecting indicators with datasets to monitor annual change. It also outlines the report’s approach for assessing progress made toward near-term targets and comparing trends over time.

LNG shipbuilding industry heading to huge oversupply

The LNG shipbuilding industry appears to be doubling down on building new carriers, ignoring the global shift to a low carbon economy and putting itself into an even worse oversupply situation than a year ago, we find in our updated report.

Setting 1.5°C compatible wind and solar targets

Based on global energy system modelling sense-checked against key national studies, this report presents new analysis on what a 1.5°C-aligned rollout of wind and solar could look like for key countries. It aims to inform target setting for 2030, 2035 and beyond in third generation NDCs.

Technical guide for the development of long-term low emission development strategies in Africa

This technical guide proposes concrete steps and actions to help African countries develop strong, high-performing Long-Term Low Emission and Climate Resilient Development Strategies that chart a low-emission development path, build resilience, encourage innovation, and create new opportunities for green growth.

Evaluating the near and long-term role of carbon dioxide removal in meeting global climate objectives

For 1.5°C pathways with limited overshoot, most of the mitigation between now and 2030 should come from emissions reductions (70%), with reductions from cutting non-CO2 emissions (20%) and land-based carbon dioxide removals such as afforestation and preventing deforestation (10%) making up the remainder.

What good looks like: G7 climate policy 2024 update

This brief outlines seven key policy recommendations for this June’s G7 summit that, if adopted, would demonstrate the ambition and leadership needed to keep the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit in sight.

Tripling renewables by 2030: interpreting the global goal at the regional level

At COP28, governments agreed to triple global renewable capacity by 2030. This report breaks down what a 1.5ºC-aligned renewables rollout would look like at the regional level and calculate the associated investment needs.

Submission to the Australian Treasury consultation on the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax

As the gas industry in Australia has grown exponentially, the profit taxes it pays to the government have proportionally plummeted, presenting an opportunity to change this regime. Here, we respond to the Australian Government Treasury consultation on the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) – anti-avoidance provisions and clarifying treatment of ‘exploration’ and Mining, Quarrying or Prospecting Rights.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

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