To inform Antigua and Barbuda’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), Antigua and Barbuda’s Department of Environment, within the Ministry of Health, Wellness and the Environment, requested technical support through the NDC Partnership’s Climate Action Enhancement Package (CAEP).
This report – Antigua and Barbuda’s National Greenhouse Gas Reduction Report – supported by Climate Analytics, assesses the greenhouse gas emissions in the energy and transport sector, and undertakes a technical analysis of renewable energy needs under different pathways to reach the mitigation targets for possible inclusion in the updated NDC.
Antigua and Barbuda’s Department of Environment requested technical assistance to inform their deliberations around the two main areas of
focus for mitigation action for the revised NDC to be submitted in 2020:
- to phase-out the use of fossil fuels in the power sector by 2030; and
- to phase-out the use of internal combustion
vehicles by 2040.
Climate Analytics has undertaken a technical analysis of renewable energy needs under different pathways to reach these mitigation targets for possible inclusion in the NDC for 2020. This initial analysis, including through the use of the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) modelling framework, is based on existing data provided through DOE and laid out in this report in four overlapping and interlinked stages:
- 2020-2025 – replacement of two power plants; ramp up of renewables;
- 2020-2030 – increase in electrification of transport; phase-out of ICE Vehicle sales;
- 2025-2030 – completion of power sector fossil fuel phase-out and implementation of grid + transport integration; and
- Beyond 2030 – fossil phase-out in power sector, continued increase in storage capacity, possible need for dispatchable renewable electricity generation, integration of transport in power sector as ICEVs are phased out.
Unabated: the Carbon Capture and Storage 86 billion tonne carbon bomb aimed at derailing a fossil phase out
The climate talks at COP28 have centred around the need for a fossil fuel phase out. Our analysis quantifies the risk posed by restricting a phase out commitment to only ‘unabated’ fossil fuels.
No change to warming as fossil fuel endgame brings focus onto false solutions
The CAT's annual warming estimate has risen by 0.1˚C to 2.5˚C. The estimate is largely influenced by weak existing targets rather than shifts triggered by updated Nationally Determined Contributions.
When will global greenhouse gas emissions peak?
The IPCC says peaking before 2025 is a critical step to keep the 1.5°C limit within reach. With emissions set to rise in 2023, this leaves limited time to act. To assess if we can meet this milestone, we look at when global emissions might peak, as well as what we can do to get there in time.
Wind and solar benchmarks for a 1.5°C world
This report presents a detailed methodology for determining the amount of wind and solar capacity that is required for a country to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal. While the focus of the report is the method, it includes illustrative benchmarks for Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Germany, South Africa.
A 1.5°C future is possible: getting fossil fuels out of the Philippine power sector
The Philippines is also one of the fastest-growing developing countries: poverty is in decline, access to energy is rising and, with that, demand for energy services. However, fossil fuels still dominate the energy system, accounting for 78% of power generation in 2022. This report sets out what the Philippines government needs to do to get the country’s power sector onto a 1.5˚C compatible emissions pathway, replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy.
Production Gap Report 2023
Governments, in aggregate, still plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The persistence of the global production gap puts a well-managed and equitable energy transition at risk.
Emissions impossible: Unpacking CSIRO GISERA Beetaloo Middle Arm fossil gas emissions estimates
This report provides an independent evaluation of the CSIRO and GISERA assessments of the potential greenhouse gas emissions that would result from the exploitation of the Beetaloo fossil shale gas reserves.
Adjusting 1.5°C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information
This study uses an integrated assessment model to explore how 1.5°C pathways could adjust in light of new adverse information, such as a reduced 1.5°C carbon budget, or slower-than-expected low-carbon technology deployment.
Railway development: lessons for the EU
This paper analyses how EU railway policy for a low-carbon future can be enhanced, drawing insights from Japan and Switzerland.
Ramping up energy storage: lessons for the EU
This paper explores how the EU can enhance its policy for a low-carbon future by learning from successful energy storage approaches in California, South Korea, and Australia.