20 November, 2013

Analysis of current greenhouse gas emission trends


Hanna Fekete, Marion Vieweg, Marcia Rocha, Nadine Braun, Marie Lindberg, Johannes Gütschow, Louise Jefferey, Niklas Höhne, Bill Hare, Michiel Schaeffer, Kirsten Macey, Julia Larkin

Policy activity has to increase significantly in order to limit global average temperature increase to 2°C above the pre-industrial level. With currently implemented government policies, greenhouse gas emissions are projected to lead to a warming of 3.7°C by the end of this century, about 0.6°C higher than that under the Copenhagen pledges. Under current policies there is about a one in three chance of exceeding 4°C by 2100.

The current trend analysis of national policies and measures shows a very diverse picture. Most countries are not on track to meet their pledges, and only a few countries are on track to meet their (often inadequate) pledges. Some countries may over-achieve their (often inadequate) targets.