This report looks into the application of CLIMADA (CLIMate ADAptation), a natural catastrophe model that calculates climate risk and potential of adaptation in the Caribbean. The study marks a starting point to determine economic losses and damages as well as adaptation measures for the region which is commonly exposed to natural disasters.

Summary

Across the globe impacts from climate-related events are increasing, particularly in ocean and coastal zones. According to the IPCC’s Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, limits to adaptation will be reached at small island states and low-lying coastal zones by the end of this century – including under low-emission scenarios.

Despite ongoing emission reduction efforts and the increased adaptation actions, there is a need to better understand impacts and further develop climate risk management strategies.

Identifying adequate measures is a key element of a climate risk management. To implement the most effective mix of measures, the selection process must be aligned with the context, requirements and capacities of a location.

This study looks into the application of CLIMADA (CLIMate ADAptation), an open-source natural catastrophe model that is being used to calculate climate risk and the potential of adaptation measures, in the Caribbean, a region that is extensively exposed to disasters caused by natural events.

Key findings

There is a substantial increase in the risk posed by tropical cyclones in 2100 at 3°C of warming when compared to warming of 1.5°C – the temperature goal identified by the Paris Agreement.

Expected accumulated damages from tropical cyclones could increase by up to 5% in 2030 and 150% in 2100 relative to 2020, due to increased cyclone intensity as a result of climate change.

This risk is reduced if global climate action limits warming to below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, but still represents a sizeable increase in projected damages.

For some islands, a mix of adaptation measures, including grey infrastructure, nature-based solutions, improved infrastructure, and risk insurance, have the potential to avert economic damages from tropical cyclones.

The preservation of mangroves and corals, classified as nature-based solutions, are found to provide cost-efficient coastal protection measures.

This study marks a starting point not only to determine economic losses and damages, but beyond that impacts of adaptation measures. Our work clearly indicates that trends of avoided or minimised economic losses and damages can be calculated, where data is available.

This approach could support decision-making processes by countries, allow for the analysis of adaptation potentials and support the selection processes of an effective mix of measures for climate risk management. Since an adaptation gap may still be incurred for countries, leading to losses and damages, we recommend that this approach be applied and further developed.

Published by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)

Developed co-jointly by Climate Analytics and GIZ Global Programme on Risk Assessment and Management for Adaptation to Climate Change (Loss and Damage)

The 1.5°C limit and risks of overshoot

This briefing looks at what the 1.5°C limit means in terms of adaptation and loss and damage for the most vulnerable countries and regions. It finds that slowing down warming is critical to buy us time to adapt and also to avoid irreversible loss and damage. Even if warming rises above 1.5°C (overshoot) we can bring it down again with ambitious emissions reductions.

Le seuil de +1,5°C et le risque de dépassement de ce seuil

Ce rapport examine ce que la limite de 1,5 °C signifie en termes d'adaptation et de pertes et dommages pour les pays et régions les plus vulnérables. Il constate qu'il est essentiel de ralentir le réchauffement pour nous donner le temps de nous adapter et pour éviter des pertes et des dommages irréversibles. Même si le réchauffement dépasse 1,5 °C, nous pouvons le faire baisser à nouveau en réduisant les émissions de manière ambitieuse.

Effects of idealised land cover and land management changes on the atmospheric water cycle

This study investigates how land cover and land management affects atmospheric moisture transport using global climate models. It finds that cropland expansion is generally causing a drying and reduced local moisture recycling, while afforestation and irrigation expansion generally cause wetting and increased local moisture recycling.

Effectiveness of water-related adaptation decreases with increasing warming

When it comes to water, adaptation to climate change becomes less effective when warming is above 1.5°C, according to a new study looking at water-related climate risk at 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C of warming. The study finds adaptation needs to go hand-in-hand with ambitious emissions reductions and decarbonisation.

About us

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Comment

Assessment of adaptation potentials in the context of climate change: the case of tropical cyclones in the Caribbean

Summary

Key findings

Factsheet: Assessment of adaptation potentials in the context of climate change

Publications

The impacts of multiple tropical cyclone events and associated precipitation on household income and expenditures

Mapping the climate risk to urban forests at city scale

The 1.5°C limit and risks of overshoot

Hydrologic interpretation of machine learning models for 10-daily streamflow simulation in climate sensitive upper Indus catchments

Le seuil de +1,5°C et le risque de dépassement de ce seuil

Representing natural climate variability in an event attribution context: Indo-Pakistani heatwave of 2022

Extreme terrestrial heat in 2023

Climate impacts in northern forests

Effects of idealised land cover and land management changes on the atmospheric water cycle

Effectiveness of water-related adaptation decreases with increasing warming

Climate justice and loss and damage: perspectives from the global south

A better integration of health and economic impact assessments of climate change