The current level of near-term emissions reductions governments put forward in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) is not consistent with the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C, and puts the world on track for almost double that limit. If not enhanced, these NDCs would put the 1.5°C limit out of reach. This report looks into what level of change is needed to bring the next round of NDCs, due in 2020, in line with the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal.

Key points

The Paris Agreement requires all parties to bring forward revised and more ambitious NDCs by 2020. What level of change do we need to see by this deadline to bring the NDCs in line with the Paris Agreement’s temperature goal?

Getting NDCs in line with the 1.5°C limit requires a transformational ramping up of ambition for the period to 2030 and beyond. This means collective improvement in ambition that yields a 50% reduction from the 2030 emissions levels implied by current NDCs. This level of ambition would need to be part of long-term strategies to enable sustained emission reductions over the following decades.

All countries need to increase ambition if the 1.5°C temperature goal is to be met. All countries have an important role to play in ramping up ambition, provided that big emitters lead the way.

A 35% reduction from the 2030 emissions levels implied by current NDCs., would bring substantial progress towards closing the global ambition gap but would not meet the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal. Warming would be held just below 2°C (median 1.7°C by 2100).

An incremental increase of ambition – a 20% reduction below the level implied in current 2030 NDC targets – would put the 1.5°C temperature goal out of reach. If incremental increases in ambition were continued beyond 2030, warming would reach over 2°C.

Increased transparency, clarity and integrity in the 2020 updates would make it easier to assess collective progress and identify opportunities for improvement. But increased transparency and integrity cannot be traded for increased ambition in mitigation targets – the two should come hand-in-hand.

Ignoring the need to significantly ramp up efforts now risks locking in fossil fuel-based infrastructure, thus slowing the pace of transformation and making it more costly, with a large risk of stranded assets.

There are multiple examples from around the world, as well as key market trends, show that a substantial ramping up of ambition is not only possible, but is economically beneficial and is already happening in many sectors and countries.

These include the remarkable cost decrease in renewable energy technologies since 2015, when most of the NDCs were prepared and/or submitted. Countries could achieve much higher emission reductions at the same or even lower cost than what was foreseen for their current NDCs. These cost reductions can be the springboard for transformational ambition in NDCs in 2020.

There are considerable benefits for sustainable development associated with increasing mitigation efforts and ambition consistent with the Paris Agreement. For example, shifting to renewable energy and phasing out fossil fuels can reduce air pollution and its associated health impacts, improve energy access in rural areas, and provide employment.

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Publications

What good looks like: G7 climate policy 2024 update

This brief outlines seven key policy recommendations for this June’s G7 summit that, if adopted, would demonstrate the ambition and leadership needed to keep the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit in sight.

Tripling renewables by 2030: interpreting the global goal at the regional level

At COP28, governments agreed to triple global renewable capacity by 2030. This report breaks down what a 1.5ºC-aligned renewables rollout would look like at the regional level and calculate the associated investment needs.

Submission to the Australian Treasury consultation on the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax

As the gas industry in Australia has grown exponentially, the profit taxes it pays to the government have proportionally plummeted, presenting an opportunity to change this regime. Here, we respond to the Australian Government Treasury consultation on the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) – anti-avoidance provisions and clarifying treatment of ‘exploration’ and Mining, Quarrying or Prospecting Rights.

COP28 initiatives will only reduce emissions if followed through

Few of the sectoral initiatives announced during COP28 will meaningfully contribute to closing the emissions gap. Many of them lack either the ambition, clarity, coverage or accountability needed to really make a difference.

Unabated: the Carbon Capture and Storage 86 billion tonne carbon bomb aimed at derailing a fossil phase-out

The climate talks at COP28 have centred around the need for a fossil fuel phase-out. Our analysis quantifies the risk posed by restricting a phase-out commitment to only ‘unabated’ fossil fuels.

No change to warming as fossil fuel endgame brings focus onto false solutions

The CAT's annual warming estimate has risen by 0.1˚C to 2.5˚C. The estimate is largely influenced by weak existing targets rather than shifts triggered by updated Nationally Determined Contributions.

Submission on Australia's future gas strategy

The Australian government asked for answers to its questions around the future of its gas strategy. This was our submission.

When will global greenhouse gas emissions peak?

The IPCC says peaking before 2025 is a critical step to keep the 1.5°C limit within reach. With emissions set to rise in 2023, this leaves limited time to act. To assess if we can meet this milestone, we look at when global emissions might peak, as well as what we can do to get there in time.

Wind and solar benchmarks for a 1.5°C world

This report presents a detailed methodology for determining the amount of wind and solar capacity that is required for a country to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal. While the focus of the report is the method, it includes illustrative benchmarks for Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Germany, South Africa.

A 1.5°C future is possible: getting fossil fuels out of the Philippine power sector

The Philippines is also one of the fastest-growing developing countries: poverty is in decline, access to energy is rising and, with that, demand for energy services. However, fossil fuels still dominate the energy system, accounting for 78% of power generation in 2022. This report sets out what the Philippines government needs to do to get the country’s power sector onto a 1.5˚C compatible emissions pathway, replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy.

State of Climate Action 2023

This report finds that global efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C are failing across the board, with recent progress made on every indicator – except electric vehicle sales – lagging behind the pace and scale needed to address the climate crisis.

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Production Gap Report 2023

Governments, in aggregate, still plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The persistence of the global production gap puts a well-managed and equitable energy transition at risk.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

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How can Paris Agreement commitments be improved now to close the gap to 1.5°C