Climate Policy Analyst
Events UNFCCC summit in Madrid (COP25)
Friday 6 December, South African Pavilion
“The challenges of coal phase out: insights from the G20 and developing countries”
Climate Analytics’ Paola Yanguas Parra took part in this discussion on global coal phase out pathways and coal transition dynamics in developing countries including South Africa, Indonesia and India.
Wednesday 4 December, 14:00 – 16:00, EU Pavilion
Meet the expert session
Climate Analytics experts Inga Menke and Andreas Geiges presented a variety of climate tools, including the Climate Action Tracker and the Lowdown on Coal.
Tuesday 3 December, 13:15-14:45, Room 3
“Bridging the Fossil Fuel Production Gap: a key opportunity for enhanced ambition”
A new Fossil Fuel Production Gap Report highlights the discrepancy between plans for coal, oil, and gas production and levels consistent with Paris goals and provides a resource for closing this gap. The panel including Climate Analytics’ Michiel Schaeffer explored findings, policy opportunities, and leadership in winding down production.
This report sets out sets out the reasons why Australia needs to steeply decrease coal-based electricity generation in the coming years and phase it out entirely by 2030. Coal power generation is responsible for approximately one third of Australia’s total emissions. Ridding its electricity of coal plays a key role in getting Australia on track to meet its national emissions reduction targets and to fulfil its obligations under the Paris Agreement, which sets out to limit global average temperature rise to 1.5°C to avoid the worst of climate impacts.
This report, released for the UN Secretary-General’s Climate Action Summit in New York, shows how fast coal needs to be phased out in order to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement, in light of the latest science from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It also assesses whether the efforts to reduce coal use in electricity generation in the last three years put as any closer to a pathway consistent with the 1.5°C limit in the Paris Agreement.
ONLINE TOOL: The Lowdown on Coal
This interactive tool shows you current and planned coal power around the world, as well as the amount of current and future carbon pollution from these plants.
In easy to understand, downloadable graphs, you find out much coal capacity a given country has at the moment, how much is under construction already, what further additions are planned or announced, how the operating capacity has changed in the last few years, as well as the amount of current and future carbon pollution from these plants
20 June 2019
REPORT: Decarbonising South and Southeast Asia
This report shows how South and South East Asia’s growing economies can shift from their current carbon-intensive pathways to renewable energy to fuel economic growth, boost sustainable development and overcome energy poverty while avoiding life-threatening pollution and environmental degradation. It includes seven country studies – India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines.
South and South East Asia: moving to at least 50% renewables in 2030 and 100% by 2050 to be in line with #1o5C would bring clean affordable electricity to millions, huge benefits for energy independence & #SDGs – report https://t.co/I0Drspc1DW #climate #SB50Bonn pic.twitter.com/PvVLSF28Qw— Climate Analytics (@CA_Latest) 20 June 2019
1-2 April 2019
Global energy transition and future of coal in Indonesia
Two seminars, organised by Climate Transparency and partners, related to the global energy transition and future of coal and prospects on energy transition in Indonesia’s power sector.
Climate Analytics’ Ursula Fuentes Hutfilter at the Climate Transparency event in Jakarta, Indonesia.
27 February 2019
A just coal transition for South Africa
Symposium in Cape Town, South Africa, on a just coal transition, organised by The Energy Research Centre, TIPS, IDDRI and Climate Strategies. Climate Analytics’ Paola Yanguas Parra took part in the discussion and gave a presentation on coal transition scenarios in light of the Paris Agreement, taking Japan as a case study, which can be downloaded here.
13 December 2018
Coal Free Day, UK pavilion at COP24
Panel discussions related to Coal Free Day held at the UK pavilion at COP24 in Katowice.
Participants in the panel discussion on ‘Making a Just Transition away from Coal’, one of the debates related to Coal Free Day held at the UK pavilion at COP24 in Katowice. Climate Analytics’ Paola Yanguas Parra (third from left) took part in the discussion and gave a presentation on ‘Coal power generation scenarios in light of the Paris Agreement’.
Japan stands at a crossroads ahead of its Presidency of the G20 in 2019. Its potential role as a leader of climate ambition and clean technology depends on it making the right decisions to establish a sunset for coal power generation. This shift must include both its domestic energy policy and its finance for coal technology overseas – a joint briefing by Matthew Webb (E3G) and Paola Yanguas Parra.
29 May 2018
Symposium to launch discussion on phase out of coal-fired power in Japan, Tokyo, Japan
The launch our report Science based coal phase-out timeline for Japan – Implications for policymakers and investors, produced in collaboration with the Renewable Energy Institute of Japan, provided an excellent platform for a discussion with policymakers and finance sector representatives about why Japan is lagging behind in the energy transition and what policies would help to change this. The event, attended by around 300 people, included presentations from from the Canadian Embassy and E3G about the Powering Past Coal Alliance.
Yuko Nishida, Teruyuki Ohno, and Yuri Okubo from the Renewable Energy Institute of Japan with Climate Analytics’ Dr Ursula Fuentes and Paola Yanguas Parra
16-17 March 2018
10th Energy Day Brasov, Romania
As part of the 10th Energy Day in Brasov, one of the major renewable energy related conferences in Romania, Climate Analytics policy analyst Paola Yanguas Parra (centre) was invited to talk about coal phase-out in the European Union in the context of the emission reductions required under the Paris Agreement, and what it means for Romania’s coal-based power generation.
Her presentation can be downloaded here.
Blogs and opinion
16 May 2019, Rzeczpospolita
Polska i tak odejdzie od węgla
In this opinion editorial (in Polish), Climate Analytics’ Dr Andrzej Ancygier says that ultimately Poland will have to exit coal but faces two choices: either do it later, driven by market forces as renewables outcompete coal, leaving coalminers stranded and lacking alternatives, or earlier, proactively developing new jobs in green industry.
Climate Analytics analysis arguing that the German Coal Commission must revise its phase-out plan already by 2020 to keep Germany in line with the Paris Agreement.
Climate Analytics analysis showing that Germany’s coal commission proposal, in which the country would continue to burn coal for electricity until 2038, is incompatible with the Paris Agreement.
30 March 2017, The Conversation
In China and Pakistan’s coal romance – where is the love for the climate?
In this opinion editorial, Climate Analytics’ Dr Fahad Saeed writes about Pakistan’s plans to massively expand its coal capacity, and the political and financial dynamics behind this development.
In the news
World’s coal emissions ‘must peak in 2020 to keep climate change in check’, Energy Live News, 23 September 2019
Asian coal expansion threatens Paris goals — report, E&E News, 26 June 2019
Southern Asia urged to wind down coal to keep warming in check, Reuters, 20 June 2019
Reicht das, Deutschland?, Spiegel Online, 29 January 2019
German government stands ready to move on coal exit proposal, Clean Energy Wire, 28 January 2019
Germany Plans to Quit Coal by 2038 ‘But There’s a Problem’, Ecowatch, 28 January 2019
Kein Knaller fürs Klima, Die Tageszeitung, 27 January 2019
Kohle für die Zukunft, Die Tageszeitung, 25 October 2018
Coal commission calls for surge in investment to offset coal phaseout, Handelsblatt, 25 October 2018
Forscher fordern kompletten Kohleausstieg bis 2030, Spiegel Online, 24 October 2018
Raus aus der Kohle bis 2030!, Die Tageszeitung, 24 October 2018
Climat: Un rapport préconise à l’Allemagne de sortir du charbon d’ici 2030, RTL, 24 October 2018
Was 1,5 Grad bedeutet, Klimareporter, 24 October 2018
Germany must exit coal by 2030 to meet 1.5C goal – study, Montel News, 24 October 2018
L’Allemagne invitée à sortir du charbon d’ici 2030, 7sur7, 24 October 2018
Coal phase-out – global and regional perspective
Phasing out coal from the electricity sector is the single most important step to get in line with 1.5°C. How fast does coal need to be phased out in order to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement, in light of the latest science from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)?
- Global coal emissions should peak in 2020;
- Global coal use in electricity generation must fall by 80% below 2010 levels by 2030;
- OECD nations should end coal use entirely by 2030;
- All coal-fired power stations must be shut by 2040 at the latest.
Details in our September 2019 report Global and regional coal phase-out requirements of the Paris Agreement: Insights from the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C. This report is an update of our 2016 analysis Implications of the Paris Agreement for coal use in the power sector.
Spotlight on Germany
In our latest report, we show that Germany needs to phase coal out of its electricity sector by 2030 to meet its obligations under the Paris Agreement. This is earlier than the dates discussed so far by the Coal Commission, a body established to come up with a coal exit plan by the end of 2018.
If Germany follows the Paris Agreement compatible pathway we propose here, it can also make significant steps towards meeting its 2020 emission reduction targets – something seen as impossible at the moment.
Under a planned and structured coal phase out, energy security and reliability of electricity supply is not expected to be a major concern and will be manageable. As well as reduced health impacts, a coal exit from electricity generation by 2030 in Germany will bring added benefits in job creation, helping to smooth the transition to a zero-carbon energy system.
Spotlight on the EU
The EU has over 300 power plants with 738 separate generating units (as of July 2016). These are not evenly distributed across the individual member states and those most reliant on coal are Poland, Germany, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Romania. Germany and Poland alone are jointly responsible for 51% of the EU’s installed coal capacity and 54% of emissions from coal.
This map was made using data from the EU coal-fired power plants database hosted and coordinated by Climate Action Network (CAN) Europe. To view a full page version of the map click the chain icon in the bottom right hand corner or click here.
According to our modelling, the EU will exceed its Paris Agreement-compatible emissions budget for coal based electricity generation by 85% in 2050 if all existing coal-fired power plants continue operating to the end of their full life span. If currently announced and planned plants are built in the coming years, this number will rise to almost 100%.
For the EU to remain within its carbon budget, member states must first shelve plans for any additional coal-fired generating capacity and secondly, must start actively shutting down currently operating units at an increased rate. Analysis suggests 25% of currently operating coal-fired power units need to be shut down by 2020, rising to 72% by 2025, before a complete shutdown by 2030.
The critical question is which criteria should determine when individual units are switched off? In our report A stress test for coal in Europe under the Paris Agreement we outline two possible strategies for how the EU could achieve a complete phase out of coal use in electricity generation, proposing a shutdown date for each coal-fired power generating unit.
Both methods evaluate units on emissions performance and profit generation potential. The first approach, the Regulator Perspective, prioritises shutting down the most carbon intensive plants first, where as the second approach, the Market Perspective, prioritises shutting down the least valuable plants in terms of revenue generation potential.
EU coal vs air pollution regulation
Apart from being the largest source of CO2 emissions, coal combustion is also a major threat to public health globally. Pollution from coal plants is responsible for about 23,000 premature death in the EU every year. About 82% of EU, 80% German and virtually all Polish coal power plants do not comply with a new EU regulation on industry air pollution emissions standards that they need to meet by 2021. Read more
Spotlight on Japan
In Japan, the world’s sixth largest emitter, more than half of electricity emissions in 2016 came from coal – around 20% of its total greenhouse gas emissions – from around 45GW of coal-fired power generation capacity. Yet it is planning to add a further 18 GW of new and additional coal power plants to its existing 45GW, of which 5GW are already under construction, prioritising it over renewable energy.
If Japan builds the coal-fired generation it is planning, it will exceed its Paris Agreement emissions budget (2018-2050) by nearly 300 percent.
Investing in new coal capacity in Japan could leave investors with stranded assets, as the world moves away from coal. Many big Japanese companies have international commitments such as R100 and Science Based Targets (SBT), which could be undermined by coal. They risk losing competitiveness in the global markets as Japan invests in coal rather than the global trend towards renewable energy.
Read more in our report ‘Science based coal phase-out timeline for Japan – Implications for policymakers and investors’, produced in collaboration with the Renewable Energy Institute of Japan (report also available in Japanese).
Focus on South and South East Asia
South and South East Asia’s growing economies can shift from their current carbon-intensive pathways to renewable energy to fuel economic growth, boost sustainable development and overcome energy poverty while avoiding life-threatening pollution and environmental degradation, according to a report by Climate Analytics presented at the Bonn climate talks on June 2019.
The report is the first to apply the insights from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on the 1.5˚C global warming limit to these regions, and shows how Asia’s energy systems can transition to zero carbon, in line with the Paris Agreement. The report also includes seven country studies – India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines.
Read more in our report, ‘Decarbonising South and South East Asia’.
Spotlight on South Korea
South Korea is one of the world’s top greenhouse gas emitters and currently home to 60 coal power plant units, with seven new coal power units accounting for 7.27 GW under construction. The country is also one of the world’s largest importers of coal, next to China, India, and Japan, with Australia and Indonesia as its biggest exporters.
According to our analysis, without a change in policy, Korea’s coal power generation would exceeded power sector carbon budgets for coal in line with the Paris Agreement by 2.5 times. If the seven new coal power units currently under construction go online, then the country will exceed this carbon budget by 3.17 times.
Read more in our report ‘Transitioning towards a coal-free society: science based coal phase-out pathway for South Korea under the Paris Agreement’, produced in collaboration with Solutions For Our Climate (SFOC).
Spotlight on Australia
Ending its dependence on coal for electricity generation by 2030 is the single most important element of Australia’s domestic contribution to global efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C and prevent the worst of climate change.
Using the latest science from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), this report on phasing out coal in Australia finds that to fulfil its obligations under the Paris Agreement, the country, like all OECD nations, needs to phase out coal from its electricity sector by 2030.
Coal, the most climate-damaging fossil fuel, still supplies about 60 per cent of Australia’s electricity, making its grid one of the most polluting in the world and among developed economies, the report shows.
Read more in our report ‘For Climate’s Sake: Coal-free by 2030’.
Implications of the Paris Agreement for Coal Use in the Power Sector
This report looks into the implications of the Paris Agreement for coal fired electric generation. It shows that the Paris Agreement 1.5°C temperature limit requires a quick phase-out of coal used for electric power generation.
Impact of our work
Our coal reports underpin the global coal phase-out movement by providing science-based benchmarks to establish target coal phase-out dates that are consistent with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit.
The Powering Past Coal Alliance, launched at COP23, in its declaration refers directly to the benchmarks provided in our global coal report, to stress that the Paris Agreement requires coal phase-out by 2030 in the OECD countries and by 2050 in the rest of the world. This alliance, in which national and sub-national partners commit to phasing out existing coal power in their jurisdictions, and to introducing a moratorium on any new traditional coal power stations, aims to increase its membership to 50 by 2018.
In Europe, a number of countries and sub-national authorities have established phase-out dates consistent with the 2030 benchmark provided in our reports. The recently launched BeyondCoal European campaign, is aiming at establishing similar commitments in the remaining member states to achieve a coal phase-out in the European Union by 2030.
Expanding our work
Coal is still cheap because it does not factor in the costs of environmental and health impacts, so there is no strong market signal to phase out. Many developing countries look to coal to meet their rapidly growing energy demand due to its low price, the availability of this technology and blueprints for coal deployment, as well as financing. However, renewable energy is a low cost alternative and many countries are already well on the way in its deployment at scale, while others have a very high potential for its deployment.
We’re in the process of expanding our work on science-based coal phase out strategies into the Asia-Pacific region. A number of countries in this region are planning to significantly increase their coal capacities. Phasing out coal is a complex problem; solving it must involve many actors and it must occur on parallel with a phase-in of renewables and integration. We work with partner institutions to develop an analytical framework that encompasses not just coal phase-out but also renewables phase-in and integration, aiming to inform policymakers in developing countries.
Investors vs. the Paris Agreement
This briefing paper summarises research Urgewald and its partners commissioned to determine which institutional investors are backing the world’s top 120 coal plant developers.
Coal Exit List
A global list by Urgewald of coal companies and subsidiaries.
Global Coal Finance Tracker
Project tracking the financial support for coal plant projects globally. Currently include only foreign financing flows from public finance institutions such as export credit agencies and development banks.
The Global Plant Tracker
Provides information on all existing coal plants of 30 MW or larger, as well as every plant proposed since January 1, 2010.
Campaign which provides data on coal in the United States.
Europe Beyond Coal
Campaign which provides data on coal in the European Union.