Team / Climate Analytics

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+49 (0)30 259 22 95-41

Alex has extensive knowledge in climate modelling and coordinates the Science Team efforts in the context of IPCC and UNFCCC activities. His research revolves around strong climate mitigation pathways and the physical implications of further delaying global decarbonisation efforts. While his core expertise is based on the physical science of climate change, he also works on facilitating the way scientific information is compiled and communicated to stakeholders and policy makers.

Alex studied Geography at Humboldt University in Berlin and Climate Science at University of Bern. For his PhD project at the Australian-German Climate and Energy College in Melbourne, he synthesised knowledge about multi-centennial sea level projections and developed a sea level rise module for the simple climate carbon cycle model MAGICC. As a Melbourne University research fellow, he contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) effort and continues to be involved in the MAGICC development process. Before starting his PhD, he worked at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group I Technical Support Unit during the Fifth Assessment cycle.

Blog posts

Home by the sea: new science shows more sea-level rise impacts on small islands Rosanne Martyr-Koller, Adelle Thomas, Alex Nauels, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, 28 November 2019

Publications

Peer reviewed
The deployment length of solar radiation modification: an interplay of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertainty Susanne Baur, Alexander Nauels, Zebedee Nicholls, Benjamin M. Sanderson, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner (2023)
Uncompensated claims to fair emission space risk putting Paris Agreement goals out of reach Gaurav Ganti, Matthew J Gidden, Christopher J Smith, Claire Fyson, Alexander Nauels, Keywan Riahi and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner (2023)
Responsibility of major emitters for country-level warming and extreme hot years Lea Beusch, Alexander Nauels, Lukas Gudmundsson, Johannes Gütschow, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Sonia I. Seneviratne (2022)
Loss and damage implications of sea-level rise on Small Island Developing States Rosanne Martyr-Koller, Adelle Thomas, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Alexander Nauels, Tabea Lissner (2021)
The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500 Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee R. J. Nicholls, Jared Lewis, Matthew Gidden, Elisabeth Vogel, Mandy Freund, Urs Beyerle, Claudia Gessner, Alexander Nauels, Nico Bauer, Josep G. Canadell, John S. Daniel, Andrew John, Paul B. Krummel, Gunnar Luderer, Nicolai Meinshausen, Stephen A. Montzka, Peter J. Rayner, Stefan Reimann, Steven J. Smith, Marten van den Berg, Guus J. M. Velders, Martin K. Vollmer, and Ray H. J. Wang, Geoscientific Model Development, (2020)

Incremental improvements of 2030 targets insufficient to achieve the Paris Agreement goals Andreas Geiges, Alexander Nauels, Paola Yanguas Parra, Marina Andrijevic, William Hare, Peter Pfleiderer, Michiel Schaeffer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Earth System Dynamics, (2020)
Inconsistencies when applying novel metrics for emissions accounting to the Paris agreement Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Alexander Nauels, Michiel Schaeffer, William Hare, Joeri Rogelj, Environmental Research Letters, (2019)
Attributing long-term sea-level rise to Paris Agreement emission pledges Alexander Nauels, Johannes Gütschow, Matthias Mengel, Malte Meinshausen, Peter U. Clark, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), (2019)
Incremental improvements of 2030 targets insufficient to achieve the Paris Agreement goals Andreas Geiges, Paola Yanguas Parra, Marina Andrijevic, Bill Hare, Alex Nauels, Peter Pfleiderer, Michiel Schaeffer, Carl Schleussner, Earth System Dynamics, (2019)
1.5°C Hotspots: Climate Hazards, Vulnerabilities, and Impacts Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Delphine Deryng, Sarah D'haen, William Hare, Tabea Lissner, Mouhamed Ly, Alexander Nauels, Melinda Noblet, Peter Pfleiderer, Patrick Pringle, Martin Rokitzki, Fahad Saeed, Michiel Schaeffer, Olivia Serdeczny, Adelle Thomas, Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Vol. 43:135-163, doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-102017-025835, (2018)
Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action Matthias Mengel, Alexander Nauels, Joeri Rogelj, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Nature Communications , DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-02985-8, (2018)
Linking sea level rise and socioeconomic indicators under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Alexander Nauels, Joeri Rogelj, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Malte Meinshausen and Matthias Mengel, Environmental Research Letters , Volume 12, Number 11, doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa92b6, (2017)
Synthesizing long-term sea level rise projections - the MAGICC sea level model v2.0 Nauels, A., Meinshausen, M., Mengel, M., Lorbacher, K., and Wigley, T. M. L., Geoscientific Model Development, 10, 2495-2524, doi:10.5194/gmd-10-2495-2017, (2017)
Historical greenhouse gas concentrations for climate modelling (CMIP6) Meinshausen, M., Vogel, E., Nauels, A., Lorbacher, K., Meinshausen, N., Etheridge, D. M., Fraser, P. J., Montzka, S. A., Rayner, P. J., Trudinger, C. M., Krummel, P. B., Beyerle, U., Canadell, J. G., Daniel, J. S., Enting, I. G., Law, R. M., Lunder, C. R., O'Doherty, S., Prinn, R. G., Reimann, S., Rubino, M., Velders, G. J. M., Vollmer, M. K., Wang, R. H. J., and Weiss, R., Geoscientific Model Development, 10, 2057-2116, doi:10.5194/gmd-10-2057-2017, (2017)
Complementing thermosteric sea level rise estimates Lorbacher, K., Nauels, A., and Meinshausen, M., Geoscientific Model Development, 8, 2723-2734, doi:10.5194/gmd-8-2723-2015, (2015)

Briefing papers
Solar radiation modification: a dangerous distraction from required emissions reductions Dalia Kellou, Alexander Nauels, Uta Klönne, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Bill Hare (2023)
Only halving emissions by 2030 can minimize risks of crossing cryosphere thresholds Uta Klönne, Alexander Nauels, Dr. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Pam Pearson, Robert M. DeConto, Helen S. Findlay, Gustaf Hugelius, Alexander Robinson, Joeri Rogelj, Edward A. G. Schuur and Julienne Stroeve. , Nature Climate Change, (2022)
1.5°C is still in reach to reduce the worst climate risks – but only with immediate mitigation action and shifting finance Uta Klönne, Alexander Nauels, Claire Fyson, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Bill Hare (2022)
No time for complacency: without closing the 2030 gap, net zero targets cannot prevent severe climate impacts Sarah Schöngart, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Uta Klönne, Alexander Nauels (2022)
Methane reductions, ‘climate neutrality’, and choosing the adequate metric for emissions accounting under the Paris Agreement Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Alexander Nauels, Uta Klönne (2021)

New models, old message: deep emission cuts in next decade are key Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Susanne Baur, Alexander Nauels (2020)
Pre-2020 commitments and the need for more ambitious NDCs Paola Yanguas Parra, Michiel Schaeffer, Andreas Geiges, Claire Stockwell, Alex Nauels, Matt Gidden (2019)
A reminder for the 'Blue COP' - limiting warming to 1.5°C crucial for protecting oceans and ocean services Alexander Nauels, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner (2019)
HAPPI DE 1.5C Project Carl-Friedrich Schleußner, Fahad Saeed, Alexander Nauels, Tim Trautmann, Kevin Sieck, Juliane Petersen, Stephanie Legutke (2018)
New Zealand’s Zero Carbon Bill – getting the Paris Agreement right Bill Hare, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michiel Schaeffer, Alexander Nauels (2018)

Reports
ZERO IN on the critical decade Uta Klönne, Alexander Nauels, Debbie Rosen, Christine McKenna, Sarah Schöngart, Robin Lamboll, Joeri Rogelj, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Piers Forster (2022)
ZERO IN on near-term warming and our changes of staying within 1.5°C Alexander Nauels, Zebedee Nicholls, Chris Smith, Debbie Rosen, Uta Klönne, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Joeri Rogelj, Piers Forster (2021)
The science of temperature overshoots: impacts, uncertainties and implications for near-term emissions reductions Susanne Baur, Alexander Nauels, Uta Klönne, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner (2021)
1.5°C to survive: evidence from the IPCC Special Reports Susanne Baur, Alexander Nauels, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner (2021)
Overview briefing on the IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Land Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Alexandrine Lanson, Susanne Baur, Claire Fyson, Thessa Beck, Corinne Kowalski, Alexander Nauels (2021)

Overview briefing on the IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Alexandrine Lanson, Susanne Baur, Claire Fyson, Thessa Beck, Corinne Kowalski, Alexander Nauels (2021)
ZERO IN on the remaining carbon budget and decadal warming rates Alexander Nauels (Climate Analytics), Debbie Rosen (University of Leeds), Thorsten Mauritsen (Stockholm University), Amanda Maycock (University of Leeds), Christine McKenna (University of Leeds), Joeri Rogelj (Imperial College London), Carl-Friedrich Schleussner (Climate Analytics), Ela Smith (Climate Analytics), Chris Smith (University of Leeds), Piers Forster (University of Leeds) (2019)
For climate's sake: coal-free by 2030 Paola Yanguas Parra, Ursula Fuentes Hutfilter, Tina Aboumahboub, Fabio Sferra, Michiel Schaeffer, Bill Hare, Alexander Nauels, GauravGanti (2019)