Unlike most developed countries, Japan plans to increase its coal-fired power capacity, and its banks are financing coal developments in other countries, especially in South East Asia, in contradiction of the deep emissions reductions required to curb climate change. Japan already has 45 Gigawatts of operating coal-fired generation capacity and plans to add about 18GW of new coal, of which 5GW are already under construction.

The report evaluates whether Japan’s energy policies and long-term targets are compatible with meeting the objectives of the Paris Agreement, and what this means for policymaking and investors.

In Japan – the sixth largest global greenhouse gas emitter – electricity generation is responsible for around 40% of its GHG emissions. In 2016, more than half of these came from coal (about 20% of total emissions), making it a major contributor to climate change.

“To be in line with the Paris Agreement, developed countries need to phase out coal from their energy systems by 2030, yet Japan appears to be going in the opposite direction,” says lead author Paola Yanguas Parra from Climate Analytics.

“If Japan’s emissions trajectory from its current energy and investment plans for coal were to continue, it would overshoot its Paris Agreement emissions budget for coal in the electricity sector by 292% by 2050. It’s clear from our analysis that Japan’s primary focus for achieving its national commitments – and the Paris Agreement goals – should be to urgently address emissions from coal.”

Japan’s Paris pledge is inadequate in meeting the Paris Agreement goals, foreseeing a 26% share of coal but only a 22-24% share of renewables by 2030. It also includes a 20-22% share of nuclear, which has been challenged by other studies that suggest a more realistic share is a maximum of 10%.

“The Fukushima disaster revealed that Japan’s climate policy to rely on nuclear power was a failure – nor will efficiency standards for coal bring the necessary emissions reductions. Japan needs a much higher renewable energy target, and increasing numbers of companies are demanding renewable energy,” said Yuri Okubo, of the Renewable Energy Institute.

“Policymakers need to revise national targets and policies to be consistent with international and national commitments, and introduce measures – such as carbon pricing – to offer the right incentives to choose renewables over new coal, and phasing out operating coal plants,” co-author Dr Ursula Fuentes Hutfilter from Climate Analytics.

Recent cases of investors withdrawing from coal projects in Japan highlight the risks of stranded assets and difficulty in recouping investments. Many Japanese businesses and investors also face financial risks as the world’s major insurance companies, like AXA and Allianz, begin to divest from companies with coal interests. As international companies, like Apple, commit to 100% renewable targets, suppliers are increasingly coming under pressure to procure renewable energy and reduce emissions.

“Prices of renewables are dropping quickly and will reach parity with coal between 2020-2030, and solar photovoltaics will be cheaper than gas in less than five years in Japan, even before considering a carbon price,” says Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics.
“A clear policy signal and a structured phase-out plan will benefit Japan and ensure that coal-related businesses, workers, owners and investors make a sound transition to a low-carbon future.”

Contacts for interviews:

Paola Yanguas Parra, Policy Analyst, Climate Analytics (Berlin, Germany – in Tokyo from Tuesday 29th) +49 157 828 75 700 Paola.parra@climateanalytics.org

Dr Ursula Fuentes Hutfilter, Senior Policy Analyst, Climate Analytics (Perth, Australia – in Tokyo from Monday evening) + 61 403 616 302 Ursula.fuentes@climateanalytics.org

Yuri Okubo, Senior Researcher, Renewable Energy Institute of Japan +81 (0)80 4415 6097
y.okubo@renewable-ei.org

Bill Hare, CEO, Climate Analytics (Perth, Australia): +61 468 372 179
bill.hare@climateanalytics.org

Resources:

Graphic in press release above (high res version here)

Links to high resolution versions of main graphs in report Figures: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |

Download the report

Download the executive summary

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Press Releases

LNG shipbuilding industry heading to huge oversupply

In our updated report on the future of the LNG carrier shipbuilding industry, we find there's an even smaller need for these carriers to be built in the future, but that the industry continues to add capacity that simply won't be needed.

Scientists caution no guarantees when it comes to overshooting 1.5°C

New paper published in Nature analyses future scenarios in which we temporarily exceed 1.5°C and bring temperatures back down in the long run. It finds overshoot comes with irreversible consequences and rapid near-term emissions reductions are essential to reducing climate risks.

Picking up the pace: 1.5°C wind and solar targets for 2030 and 2035 in key countries

1.5°C aligned wind and solar benchmarks for China, India, USA, South Africa, Germany, Indonesia, Australia, Brazil, Mexico, Türkiye and Nigeria.

Expert reviewers comment on new UN report on sea level rise referenced today by the Secretary General in his speech to the Pacific Islands Forum in Tonga

New UN report launched by the Secretary General at the Pacific Islands Forum in Tonga speaks to the serious risks to the region from sea level rise if we are not able to limit warming to 1.5°C.

Australia's massive global carbon footprint set to continue with fossil fuel exports

Australia has a global carbon footprint that far exceeds its economic size and population - and is responsible for around 4.5% of global fossil carbon dioxide emissions, with 80% of those emissions coming from its fossil fuel exports.

Extreme heat in Phoenix could make outdoor work ‘impossible’ for nearly half the year – new data

New data shows that if we don’t take more action to limit the effects of global warming, by the year 2100 temperatures in Phoenix will get so high that 1297 hours every year will be considered unsafe for work outdoors.

Climate Risk Dashboard update: glacier retreat, biodiversity loss and impacts of heat stress on cities

Explore a wider range of impacts from climate change – including the impacts of heat stress on people – to learn how the climate crisis might affect you.

Bonn climate talks disappoint and up the stakes for Baku

As the climate negotiations wrap up in Bonn, Bill Hare, CEO and Senior Scientist, Climate Analytics comments.

Landmark report reveals larger extent of loss and damage in Caribbean

At the Bonn Climate Conference, Climate Analytics Caribbean launched the first comprehensive analysis of how regional governments are assessing and reporting on loss and damage impacts in the Caribbean.

Pre-monsoon heatwave in South Asia breaking records due to climate change

South and Southeast Asia are experiencing another record heatwave, with forecasts anticipating that the heatwave will continue in certain parts of the region before rain or cool winds bring a respite.

Proposed 2035 coal phase out date for the G7 too late to limit warming to 1.5°C

G7 Ministers have trailed a new commitment to phase out unabated coal in the first half of the 2030s. The proposed 2035 coal phase out date is too late to limit warming to 1.5°C, says Jane Ellis, Head of Climate Policy at Climate Analytics.

Climate change-fueled tropical cyclones have already reduced Filipino household incomes by 7%

Household incomes have dropped by 7% on average across the Philippines due to climate-driven tropical cyclones, according to a new peer-reviewed study. In some provinces such as Surigao del Norte, Maguindanao, Batangas and Cavite, tropical cyclones reduced household income by more than 20%.

About us

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Comment

Japan’s coal renaissance poses serious risks to businesses and investors