New research from Climate Analytics shows that major emitting sectors can fully eliminate fossil fuel use and reach real zero on tight timelines. EU road freight could reach real zero by 2040 with other regions not far behind, while, global steel and shipping could reach real zero by 2050.

“Real zero” means completely eliminating fossil fuels by replacing them with zero-carbon alternatives, rather than compensating for them with offsets, carbon dioxide removal or carbon capture and storage.

“Net zero is not the same as zero. To keep 1.5°C in reach, we must drive as many sectors as possible to real zero before mid-century,” said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics. “That reduces over-reliance on negative emissions and delivers durable decarbonisation.”

“We need to ensure removals are used to bring temperatures back down, not compensate for continued fossil fuel use,” he said.

The report, Real zero: delivering a fossil free future, explores the technical feasibility of real zero in key sectors of the economy – trucks, steel, shipping, power and light-duty vehicles – and assesses when each sector could fully eliminate fossil fuels, and the key technologies and measures needed to do so.

“The transition to real zero is not a distant aspiration, but an immediate and tangible possibility. The viability of real zero is only growing over time as zero-carbon technologies rapidly advance and mature, and their costs fall,” said Michael Petroni, author and Climate and Energy Policy Analyst at Climate Analytics.

“Trucking stands out as a sector that can act fast. Europe’s road freight sector could reach real zero as early as 2040. Battery electric trucks in Europe should meet cost parity on total cost of ownership with diesel trucks next year, and by 2030 will be 15-20% cheaper. Beyond 2030, the EU’s new emissions trading system (ETS2) will make a business-as-usual approach 20% more expensive than electrifying early,” Petroni said.

A further report, Real zero: an opportunity, not a cost, uses three case studies to examine the economic feasibility of real zero. The report looks in-depth at the transition to battery electric trucks in Europe, green steel in Japan and green fertiliser in India, and compares it to alternatives such as business-as-usual, or approaches which rely heavily on carbon capture and storage or carbon dioxide removal to enable continued fossil fuel usage.

The report finds companies that embrace real zero will position themselves at the forefront of the emerging green economy. Meanwhile, those that continue to rely on carbon dioxide removal or carbon capture and storage risk being competitively disadvantaged as zero-carbon alternatives become increasingly cost-effective.

“Real zero steelmaking in Japan in the 2030s is a viable, realistic option that directly reduces emissions and doesn’t require offsetting. Our analysis shows secondary steel made from renewables-powered electric arc furnaces is already cost-competitive compared to fossil fuel powered options, and primary steel isn’t that far behind,” says author Danial Riaz, Senior Energy and Climate Policy Analyst at Climate Analytics.

“Similarly, greening the production of fertiliser in India by switching out ammonia made from LNG to ammonia made from green hydrogen cuts emissions at source, decouples risks from global gas prices, reduces import dependence – all with negligible pass-through to food prices,” Riaz said.

Read the reports

Press Releases

World can still rescue 1.5°C, says new analysis mapping the highest-ambition path

A new Climate Analytics study shows that, even after years of insufficient action, the world can still return to well below 1.5°C of warming this century if countries pursue the “highest possible ambition” in climate action.

Fossil fuel giants should pay their share to scale up carbon removal technology, study finds

The world’s largest fossil fuel and cement companies should shoulder a major share of the investment needed to develop carbon removal technologies, according to a new peer-reviewed study in Climate Policy.

No sector on track to meet global climate goals, State of Climate Action 2025 finds

A major new assessment finds that the world is stalling on progress to limit warming to 1.5°C, with none of the 45 indicators of climate action on track for 2030.

Report: Hard-to-abate: justified - or an excuse for inaction?

This report looks at decarbonisation options for both the so-called "hard-to-abate" iron & steel - and cement - sectors, along with the lack of progress on CCS, and finds the claims they are hard-to-abate difficult to reconcile with reality.

Asian adoption of CCS could see huge emissions rise - report

Asian countries are considering CCS to address fossil fuel emissions, which could create a "considerable and unnecessary risk" not only to the Paris Agreement, but also to their own economies.

Governments’ fossil fuel production plans continue to steer world further from Paris Agreement warming limits, 2025 Production Gap Report finds

Production Gap Report 2025 launches

Australia's insufficient target "baffling" in light of its climate risk assessment

Climate Analytics Australia responds to new 2035 climate target

Australian government gaslights the nation as it puts Woodside ahead of the World and the Pacific

Climate Analytics responds to the Australian government's approval of Woodside Energy's gas production project out to 2070

Pakistan’s third major flooding event this summer highlights the escalating risks of climate change

Climate change is driving increasingly extreme rainfall and multiple types of flooding in Pakistan - one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable but lowest-emitting countries

1.5˚C aligned targets for Australia

Australia's 2035 target and net zero plan must be "ambitious, fair, credible and transparent". Climate Analytics released its target recommendations for the potential host of COP31.

ICJ: 1.5°C is ‘primary goal’ under the Paris Agreement and countries must act on climate with 'highest ambition' to meet this

The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has issued a fundamental set of findings that reinforces the centrality of the Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement, and the duty on all states to meet their corresponding goals and obligations.

Comment on UNSG's 22 July special climate address

The new UN report backed by IEA, the IMF, IRENA, the OECD and the World Bank has one clear message – there’s no stopping renewables now, despite the concerted efforts of fossil fuel lobbyists thinking they can hold back the tide.

About us

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Comment

Real zero is within reach: EU road freight can eliminate fossil fuels by 2040; global steel and shipping by 2050