Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics comments on the IEA's World Energy Outlook

“The International Energy Agency shows what we’ve long known: continuing to back fossil fuels will make energy bills more expensive for everyday people. Investing in renewables means cheaper energy bills and is the fastest route to addressing energy poverty and overcoming energy insecurity.

"Backing renewables is a win-win for people’s wallets and the climate – in fact, all the different futures mapped out by the IEA have renewables growing faster than any other energy source.

"Renewables are now unstoppable: solar power and batteries are now so cheap that continuing to invest in fossil fuels is a needless climate and economic risk.

“Trump has pressured the IEA to resurrect a zombie scenario from the past – the Current Policies Scenario, in which the current momentum of the energy transition evaporates. This is an unrealistic assumption when we look at the progress renewables are making around the world. And even if the CPS was realised, it only shows is that Trump’s vision is a disaster for the economy, household bills and the climate.

“With renewables booming and the risks of a fossil entrenchment on the rise, there is no time to lose accelerating the energy transition.

"The IEA’s Net Zero Scenario shows that, although overshoot of 1.5oC is all but inevitable by the early 2030s due to insufficient action to date, it is still possible to bring temperatures back below 1.5°C before the end of this century. These findings are similar to the new Highest Possible Ambition scenario, released last week by Climate Analytics and PIK, though the path to get there differs. In our Highest Possible Ambition scenario global warming peaks around ~1.7°C and falls to ~1.2°C by 2100.

“Both these scenarios reinforce that it is still possible to limit overshoot and to get temperatures well below 1.5°C before 2100, on the path back down to safer levels warming.

The new IEA Net Zero Scenario confirms no need for new long-lead oil and gas projects or coal mines – fossil gas use needs to reduce quickly from current levels to 40% below these levels by 2035.  This report also confirms that a massive glut of LNG supply is developing - with gas use consistent with LNG glut is consistent with the IEA’s Current Policy Scenario which would warm the world by 3°C by 2100.

"At COP30 here in Brazil, we have a choice. We could walk away from this COP entrenching fossil gas and oil, putting warming on a pathway for up to 3°C degrees of warming. Or we could leave COP30 with a renewed commitment to action and a clear path to bring warming back well below 1.5°C by 2100.”