Asian adoption of CCS could see huge emissions rise - report

Asian countries are considering carbon capture and storage (CCS) to address fossil fuel emissions, which could create a "considerable and unnecessary risk" not only to the Paris Agreement, but also to their own economies, according to a report released today by global science and policy institute Climate Analytics.

If they were to fully embrace this risky technology, this could lead to an extra 25 billion tonnes of emissions by 2050.

The analysis assessed the current pipeline and prospective future deployment of CCS in Asia and some of its largest and/or most influential economies, energy users, and greenhouse gas emitters: China, India, Japan, Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore, as well as a key regional partner, Australia (which has strong integration with Asian fossil fuel trade and CCS plans). Together, these countries make up more than half the world's fossil fuel and greenhouse gas emissions.

While the fossil fuel industry and some governments are promoting CCS as a viable mitigation solution, the technology has so far failed to materialise, both on technical and economic grounds, with ongoing failures, low capture rates and high costs. Fossil fuel energy and industrial installations with CCS are becoming increasingly uncompetitive against more economic, cheaper and more sustainable mitigation options such as renewable energy coupled with storage and electrification.

"We find a strong possibility that Asian countries could increase their support for CCS through to 2050, risking a significant lock-in of unabated fossil fuels and stranded asset costs, let alone risks to the world achieving the Paris Agreement 1.5˚C warming limit," says report lead author, Climate Analytics analyst James Bowen.

Deploying CCS in the power sector is, at the global average, estimated to produce a levelised cost of electricity up to at least twice that of renewables backed by storage. There are viable alternatives to CCS in hard-to-abate industrial sectors without having to resort to CCS, which is still not zero-emissions.

Japan and Korea provide significant financial and regulatory support to CCS at home and abroad, seeking to capture related technology markets. Australia and Southeast Asian countries are positioning themselves as CO2 storage and transit hubs, to sustain fossil fuel production and revenues. China and India have less clear CCS plans, but could potentially significantly pivot towards this technology, despite the lower cost - and significant less risky - renewables

"Asia is at a crossroads: while these countries haven't yet gone down a high CCS route, many have tailored their CCS policies to protect their fossil fuel industry, especially in Japan, South Korea and Australia," said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics.

"This is a very risky strategy, not only to the Paris Agreement, but to these economies themselves," he said.