The 2013 Warsaw Conference of the Parties (COP19) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited all Parties to initiate or intensify domestic preparations for their intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) in the context of the 2015 agreement. The COP-19 agreed that these contributions should be communicated well in advance of COP-21 in December 2015, preferably by the first quarter of 2015 by Parties ready to do so.
The Least Developed Countries (LDCs) are most vulnerable to climate change and are currently already facing adverse climate effects. The LDCs’ negotiation position is one that calls for strong global climate action, and the group is therefore demanding a binding climate treaty that engages all Parties in ambitious mitigation action and ensures international cooperation on adaptation, finance and other means of implementation to provide effective support to the most vulnerable countries.
While international negotiations make progress toward greater clarity regarding the concept of INDCs, several countries are already engaging in domestic preparations. The LDC Group has stated that it is of utmost importance for all Parties to join the agreement and to make an effort to include mitigation elements in their contributions. The group states that while adaptation and means of implementation are important parts of the 2015 Agreement and should have the same level of political priority, they should be treated separately from mitigation.
Nepal, current Chair of the LDC Group at the UNFCCC climate change negotiations to end of 2014, takes on a forerunner role and has the responsibility to voice concerns of countries in the Group. Nepal can present itself as a model for all other LDCs by outlining what a contribution can mean for the LDCs in the context of the 2015 agreement. Such contributions should not add an extra burden to countries less capable to cope with climate change due to their development status, who already face huge challenges to deal with other problems, such as poverty eradication. Instead, INDCs should provide strong and moral obligations for more capable countries to act.
Unabated: the Carbon Capture and Storage 86 billion tonne carbon bomb aimed at derailing a fossil phase out
The climate talks at COP28 have centred around the need for a fossil fuel phase out. Our analysis quantifies the risk posed by restricting a phase out commitment to only ‘unabated’ fossil fuels.
No change to warming as fossil fuel endgame brings focus onto false solutions
The CAT's annual warming estimate has risen by 0.1˚C to 2.5˚C. The estimate is largely influenced by weak existing targets rather than shifts triggered by updated Nationally Determined Contributions.
When will global greenhouse gas emissions peak?
The IPCC says peaking before 2025 is a critical step to keep the 1.5°C limit within reach. With emissions set to rise in 2023, this leaves limited time to act. To assess if we can meet this milestone, we look at when global emissions might peak, as well as what we can do to get there in time.
Wind and solar benchmarks for a 1.5°C world
This report presents a detailed methodology for determining the amount of wind and solar capacity that is required for a country to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal. While the focus of the report is the method, it includes illustrative benchmarks for Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Germany, South Africa.
A 1.5°C future is possible: getting fossil fuels out of the Philippine power sector
The Philippines is also one of the fastest-growing developing countries: poverty is in decline, access to energy is rising and, with that, demand for energy services. However, fossil fuels still dominate the energy system, accounting for 78% of power generation in 2022. This report sets out what the Philippines government needs to do to get the country’s power sector onto a 1.5˚C compatible emissions pathway, replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy.
Production Gap Report 2023
Governments, in aggregate, still plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The persistence of the global production gap puts a well-managed and equitable energy transition at risk.
Emissions impossible: Unpacking CSIRO GISERA Beetaloo Middle Arm fossil gas emissions estimates
This report provides an independent evaluation of the CSIRO and GISERA assessments of the potential greenhouse gas emissions that would result from the exploitation of the Beetaloo fossil shale gas reserves.
Adjusting 1.5°C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information
This study uses an integrated assessment model to explore how 1.5°C pathways could adjust in light of new adverse information, such as a reduced 1.5°C carbon budget, or slower-than-expected low-carbon technology deployment.
Railway development: lessons for the EU
This paper analyses how EU railway policy for a low-carbon future can be enhanced, drawing insights from Japan and Switzerland.
Ramping up energy storage: lessons for the EU
This paper explores how the EU can enhance its policy for a low-carbon future by learning from successful energy storage approaches in California, South Korea, and Australia.