How feasible is changing track? Scenario analysis on the implications of changing emission tracks after 2020, from an insufficient global deal on 2020 reductions, to 2°C and 1.5°C pathways

Despite an escalating climate crisis marked by unprecedented wildfires, storms, floods, and droughts, the Climate Action Tracker annual global temperature update shows global warming projections for 2100 are flatlining, with no improvement since 2021. The aggregate effect of current policies set the world on a path toward 2.7°C of warming.

The Climate Action Tracker provides updated 1.5ºC compatible benchmarks for the transport sector for the world as a whole and for seven individual countries; the US, EU, China, India, Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia.

Northern forests are critical in the race to net zero CO₂ by mid-century. Protecting and restoring these forests, alongside steep and rapid reductions in fossil fuel emissions, is essential both to mitigating emissions and to supporting forest ecosystem services and biodiversity.

This technical note describes the State of Climate Action series’ methodology for identifying sectors that must transform, translating these transformations into global mitigation targets primarily for 2030, 2035 and 2050 and selecting indicators with datasets to monitor annual change. It also outlines the report’s approach for assessing progress made toward near-term targets and comparing trends over time.

Based on global energy system modelling sense-checked against key national studies, this report presents new analysis on what a 1.5°C-aligned rollout of wind and solar could look like for key countries. It aims to inform target setting for 2030, 2035 and beyond in third generation NDCs.

This technical guide proposes concrete steps and actions to help African countries develop strong, high-performing Long-Term Low Emission and Climate Resilient Development Strategies that chart a low-emission development path, build resilience, encourage innovation, and create new opportunities for green growth.

The Article 6.4 mechanism, now known as the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism, allows countries to trade reductions in carbon emissions in a manner that goes beyond zero-sum offsetting, to achieve their commitments under the Paris Agreement. This briefing aims to update Small Island Developing States and Least Developed Countries on the standards and procedures that have been adopted by the supervising body (Article 6.4) to inform the design of projects.

This briefing aims to provide some preliminary information on what just transition encompasses in the context of Caribbean Small Island Developing States.