The European Union Council is meeting 10-11 December to revise its 2030 domestic emission reduction target. The Council has an unprecedented opportunity to cement the EU's global leadership on climate change by adopting a target that is fully consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit. Our new briefing shows the domestic emission reductions needed by 2030 for the EU27 and three of its key member states – France, Germany and Poland - to be in line with that limit.

Key Messages

The European Union Council is meeting 10-11 December to revise its 2030 domestic emissions reduction target to bring it into line with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C goal
This briefing shows the domestic emission reductions needed by 2030 for the EU27 and three member states – France, Germany and Poland – based on downscaling of 1.5°C compatible Global mitigation pathways published by the IPCC in the SR1.5.
Paris Agreement compatible 2030 domestic emission reductions for the EU27 are in the range of 58-70% below 1990 levels
- The EU Commission’s proposed 2030 emissions target of a 55% reduction below 1990 levels is not quite compatible with limiting warming to the 1.5°C long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement;
- The EU Parliament’s proposed 60% target lies just within the Paris Agreement compatible band of 2030 emission reductions
- A 65% target would ensure it is firmly within its 1.5°C compatible 2030 emissions range;
If the EU Council adopts a 2030 domestic reduction target well within the Paris Agreement range of 58-70% the EU-27 would join the UK in having fully Paris Agreement compatible domestic emission goals through to mid-century, 2050
In addition to a stronger 2030 domestic reduction target the European Union will need to provide further support to less wealthy nations for emissions reductions abroad to ensure the EU is contributing its fair-share of the global mitigation burden;
2030 targets of major EU countries Germany, France, and Poland all fall short of being 1.5°C compatible.

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Publications

1.5°C-aligned 2030 and 2035 GHG emissions targets

We have produced factsheets for Australia, China, the EU, India, Indonesia and USA showing 2030 and 2035 greenhouse gas emission reduction milestones for each jurisdiction to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal – both including and excluding land use, land-use change and forestry.

Climate Action Tracker: 2024 warming projection update

Despite an escalating climate crisis marked by unprecedented wildfires, storms, floods, and droughts, the Climate Action Tracker annual global temperature update shows global warming projections for 2100 are flatlining, with no improvement since 2021. The aggregate effect of current policies set the world on a path toward 2.7°C of warming.

Decarbonising light-duty vehicle road transport

The Climate Action Tracker provides updated 1.5ºC compatible benchmarks for the transport sector for the world as a whole and for seven individual countries; the US, EU, China, India, Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia.

Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please!

The 2024 edition of UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report shows how much higher nations must aim. To get on a least-cost pathway for 1.5°C, emissions must fall 42 per cent by 2030, compared to 2019 levels. G20 nations, particularly the largest-emitting members, would need to do the heavy lifting.

The role of northern forests in limiting warming to 1.5°C

Northern forests are critical in the race to net zero CO₂ by mid-century. Protecting and restoring these forests, alongside steep and rapid reductions in fossil fuel emissions, is essential both to mitigating emissions and to supporting forest ecosystem services and biodiversity.

Methodology underpinning the State of Climate Action series: 2024 update

This technical note describes the State of Climate Action series’ methodology for identifying sectors that must transform, translating these transformations into global mitigation targets primarily for 2030, 2035 and 2050 and selecting indicators with datasets to monitor annual change. It also outlines the report’s approach for assessing progress made toward near-term targets and comparing trends over time.

LNG shipbuilding industry heading to huge oversupply

The LNG shipbuilding industry appears to be doubling down on building new carriers, ignoring the global shift to a low carbon economy and putting itself into an even worse oversupply situation than a year ago, we find in our updated report.

Setting 1.5°C compatible wind and solar targets

Based on global energy system modelling sense-checked against key national studies, this report presents new analysis on what a 1.5°C-aligned rollout of wind and solar could look like for key countries. It aims to inform target setting for 2030, 2035 and beyond in third generation NDCs.

Technical guide for the development of long-term low emission development strategies in Africa

This technical guide proposes concrete steps and actions to help African countries develop strong, high-performing Long-Term Low Emission and Climate Resilient Development Strategies that chart a low-emission development path, build resilience, encourage innovation, and create new opportunities for green growth.

Evaluating the near and long-term role of carbon dioxide removal in meeting global climate objectives

For 1.5°C pathways with limited overshoot, most of the mitigation between now and 2030 should come from emissions reductions (70%), with reductions from cutting non-CO2 emissions (20%) and land-based carbon dioxide removals such as afforestation and preventing deforestation (10%) making up the remainder.

What good looks like: G7 climate policy 2024 update

This brief outlines seven key policy recommendations for this June’s G7 summit that, if adopted, would demonstrate the ambition and leadership needed to keep the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit in sight.

Tripling renewables by 2030: interpreting the global goal at the regional level

At COP28, governments agreed to triple global renewable capacity by 2030. This report breaks down what a 1.5ºC-aligned renewables rollout would look like at the regional level and calculate the associated investment needs.

About us

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Comment

EU 2030 emissions reduction target needs to be brought into line with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit