The European Union Council is meeting 10-11 December to revise its 2030 domestic emission reduction target. The Council has an unprecedented opportunity to cement the EU's global leadership on climate change by adopting a target that is fully consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit. Our new briefing shows the domestic emission reductions needed by 2030 for the EU27 and three of its key member states – France, Germany and Poland - to be in line with that limit.

Key Messages

The European Union Council is meeting 10-11 December to revise its 2030 domestic emissions reduction target to bring it into line with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C goal
This briefing shows the domestic emission reductions needed by 2030 for the EU27 and three member states – France, Germany and Poland – based on downscaling of 1.5°C compatible Global mitigation pathways published by the IPCC in the SR1.5.
Paris Agreement compatible 2030 domestic emission reductions for the EU27 are in the range of 58-70% below 1990 levels
- The EU Commission’s proposed 2030 emissions target of a 55% reduction below 1990 levels is not quite compatible with limiting warming to the 1.5°C long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement;
- The EU Parliament’s proposed 60% target lies just within the Paris Agreement compatible band of 2030 emission reductions
- A 65% target would ensure it is firmly within its 1.5°C compatible 2030 emissions range;
If the EU Council adopts a 2030 domestic reduction target well within the Paris Agreement range of 58-70% the EU-27 would join the UK in having fully Paris Agreement compatible domestic emission goals through to mid-century, 2050
In addition to a stronger 2030 domestic reduction target the European Union will need to provide further support to less wealthy nations for emissions reductions abroad to ensure the EU is contributing its fair-share of the global mitigation burden;
2030 targets of major EU countries Germany, France, and Poland all fall short of being 1.5°C compatible.

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Publications

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Evaluating the near and long-term role of carbon dioxide removal in meeting global climate objectives

For 1.5°C pathways with limited overshoot, most of the mitigation between now and 2030 should come from emissions reductions (70%), with reductions from cutting non-CO2 emissions (20%) and land-based carbon dioxide removals such as afforestation and preventing deforestation (10%) making up the remainder.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

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EU 2030 emissions reduction target needs to be brought into line with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit