1 June, 2014

Below 2°C or 1.5°C depends on rapid action from both Annex I and non-Annex I countries

Authors

Bill Hare, Michiel Schaeffer, Marie Lindberg, Niklas Höhne, Hanna Fekete, Louise Jeffery, Johannes Gütschow, Fabio Sferra, Marcia Rocha

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All governments will have to significantly increase their action on climate change – both before 2020 and after, reducing total global greenhouse gas emissions to zero between 2060 and 2080, to keep warming to 2°C.

To achieve this, Governments will need to move even faster on C02 emissions from the energy and industry sectors, according to new analysis by the Climate Action Tracker.

The Climate Action Tracker, an analysis by research organisations Climate Analytics, Ecofys and the Pik Potsdam Institute, has examined the new scenarios in the IPCC AR5 database and calculated the required cuts to emissions needed at global and regional levels – in 2020, 2025 and 2030 – to keep global warming below 2°C with a high probability (and to return to 1.5°C by 2100).

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Spatially resolved emulated annual temperature projections for overshoot pathways

This study presents a new dataset of annual temperature projections for different overshoot pathways (when the 1.5 °C of global warming limit is exceeded). The data offers a unique opportunity to study local and regional climate change impacts of a range of overshoot scenarios, including when temperature thresholds might be exceeded, and by how much.

Climate Action Tracker: 2024 warming projection update

Despite an escalating climate crisis marked by unprecedented wildfires, storms, floods, and droughts, the Climate Action Tracker annual global temperature update shows global warming projections for 2100 are flatlining, with no improvement since 2021. The aggregate effect of current policies set the world on a path toward 2.7°C of warming.

Decarbonising light-duty vehicle road transport

The Climate Action Tracker provides updated 1.5ºC compatible benchmarks for the transport sector for the world as a whole and for seven individual countries; the US, EU, China, India, Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia.

Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please!

The 2024 edition of UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report shows how much higher nations must aim. To get on a least-cost pathway for 1.5°C, emissions must fall 42 per cent by 2030, compared to 2019 levels. G20 nations, particularly the largest-emitting members, would need to do the heavy lifting.

The role of northern forests in limiting warming to 1.5°C

Northern forests are critical in the race to net zero CO₂ by mid-century. Protecting and restoring these forests, alongside steep and rapid reductions in fossil fuel emissions, is essential both to mitigating emissions and to supporting forest ecosystem services and biodiversity.

Methodology underpinning the State of Climate Action series: 2024 update

This technical note describes the State of Climate Action series’ methodology for identifying sectors that must transform, translating these transformations into global mitigation targets primarily for 2030, 2035 and 2050 and selecting indicators with datasets to monitor annual change. It also outlines the report’s approach for assessing progress made toward near-term targets and comparing trends over time.

LNG shipbuilding industry heading to huge oversupply

The LNG shipbuilding industry appears to be doubling down on building new carriers, ignoring the global shift to a low carbon economy and putting itself into an even worse oversupply situation than a year ago, we find in our updated report.

Fracking the Kimberley: the Canning Basin development plans

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Setting 1.5°C compatible wind and solar targets

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Technical guide for the development of long-term low emission development strategies in Africa

This technical guide proposes concrete steps and actions to help African countries develop strong, high-performing Long-Term Low Emission and Climate Resilient Development Strategies that chart a low-emission development path, build resilience, encourage innovation, and create new opportunities for green growth.

Australia's global fossil fuel carbon footprint

This report unpacks the global carbon footprint from Australia's exported fossil fuels, especially coal and gas; exports that are set to continue at the same level through to 2035, threatening the 1.5˚C warming limit.
Australia has a global carbon footprint that far exceeds its economic size and population - and is responsible for around 4.5% of global fossil carbon dioxide emissions, with 80% of those emissions coming from its fossil fuel exports.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

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