Countries are called to communicate enhanced “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs) to work towards the Paris Agreement goals. The revised draft NDC for Antigua and Barbuda establishes a number of targets and sub-targets primarily within the electricity and transport sectors. For electricity, by 2030, 86% of electricity demand is to be met through renewable energy sources. In the transport sector, the use of internal combustion engines is to be phased out by 2040.

Moreover, a Just Transition of the workforce by 2030 is envisioned. This study aims at analysing the employment implications of Antigua and Barbuda transitioning to a low carbon economy and discussing the various social dimensions of a ‘Just Transition’, with a focus on electricity and road transport. This report assesses the employment impacts for a scenario derived based on the current draft NDC targets compared to a Business-as-Usual Scenario, with a focus on road transport and the electricity sector.

The quantitative part of this analysis focuses on direct jobs in the electricity and transport sectors using an employment factor approach, for which multipliers specific to Antigua and Barbuda are derived engaging stakeholders and local experts. This is complemented with a qualitative assessment of the context and wider implications informed by expert and stakeholder interviews. Key recommendations for a policy framework for a Just Transition were developed based on the baseline analysis.

Figure ES1: Total employment impacts – electricity sector and road transport sector combined for BAU and NDC scenario. The shading illustrates that uncertainty around the estimates increases going more into the future

The aggregated direct employment estimates from this analysis (see Figure ES1) suggest that the energy transition and transport electrification would create substantial employment benefits compared to the fossil-fuel dominated Business-as-Usual Scenario.

In particular, the build-up of new infrastructure – with substantial amounts of renewable energy and battery storage installations as well as electric vehicle charging infrastructure to be installed – is expected to create new and ‘greener’ jobs as compared to the Business-as-Usual case, replacing fossil-related jobs.

In the longer term, when the new infrastructure is already mostly built, jobs in typically less labour-intensive operations and maintenance would dominate. At the same time, learning effects would also increase productivity over time and the employment impacts may settle at a more moderate level similar to the employment in the BAU. The employment impacts have been estimated based on available data for current employment and expected trends in the electricity generation sector and road transport sector.

Consultation with local experts and stakeholders provided input and feedback on underlying assumptions.

Publications

1.5°C-aligned 2030 and 2035 GHG emissions targets

We have produced factsheets for Australia, China, the EU, India, Indonesia and USA showing 2030 and 2035 greenhouse gas emission reduction milestones for each jurisdiction to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal – both including and excluding land use, land-use change and forestry.

Climate Action Tracker: 2024 warming projection update

Despite an escalating climate crisis marked by unprecedented wildfires, storms, floods, and droughts, the Climate Action Tracker annual global temperature update shows global warming projections for 2100 are flatlining, with no improvement since 2021. The aggregate effect of current policies set the world on a path toward 2.7°C of warming.

Decarbonising light-duty vehicle road transport

The Climate Action Tracker provides updated 1.5ºC compatible benchmarks for the transport sector for the world as a whole and for seven individual countries; the US, EU, China, India, Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia.

Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please!

The 2024 edition of UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report shows how much higher nations must aim. To get on a least-cost pathway for 1.5°C, emissions must fall 42 per cent by 2030, compared to 2019 levels. G20 nations, particularly the largest-emitting members, would need to do the heavy lifting.

The role of northern forests in limiting warming to 1.5°C

Northern forests are critical in the race to net zero CO₂ by mid-century. Protecting and restoring these forests, alongside steep and rapid reductions in fossil fuel emissions, is essential both to mitigating emissions and to supporting forest ecosystem services and biodiversity.

Methodology underpinning the State of Climate Action series: 2024 update

This technical note describes the State of Climate Action series’ methodology for identifying sectors that must transform, translating these transformations into global mitigation targets primarily for 2030, 2035 and 2050 and selecting indicators with datasets to monitor annual change. It also outlines the report’s approach for assessing progress made toward near-term targets and comparing trends over time.

LNG shipbuilding industry heading to huge oversupply

The LNG shipbuilding industry appears to be doubling down on building new carriers, ignoring the global shift to a low carbon economy and putting itself into an even worse oversupply situation than a year ago, we find in our updated report.

Setting 1.5°C compatible wind and solar targets

Based on global energy system modelling sense-checked against key national studies, this report presents new analysis on what a 1.5°C-aligned rollout of wind and solar could look like for key countries. It aims to inform target setting for 2030, 2035 and beyond in third generation NDCs.

Technical guide for the development of long-term low emission development strategies in Africa

This technical guide proposes concrete steps and actions to help African countries develop strong, high-performing Long-Term Low Emission and Climate Resilient Development Strategies that chart a low-emission development path, build resilience, encourage innovation, and create new opportunities for green growth.

Evaluating the near and long-term role of carbon dioxide removal in meeting global climate objectives

For 1.5°C pathways with limited overshoot, most of the mitigation between now and 2030 should come from emissions reductions (70%), with reductions from cutting non-CO2 emissions (20%) and land-based carbon dioxide removals such as afforestation and preventing deforestation (10%) making up the remainder.

Article 6.4 progress update: work of the Supervisory Body on the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism

The Article 6.4 mechanism, now known as the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism, allows countries to trade reductions in carbon emissions in a manner that goes beyond zero-sum offsetting, to achieve their commitments under the Paris Agreement. This briefing aims to update Small Island Developing States and Least Developed Countries on the standards and procedures that have been adopted by the supervising body (Article 6.4) to inform the design of projects.

What does a just transition look like for Caribbean Small Island Developing States?

This briefing aims to provide some preliminary information on what just transition encompasses in the context of Caribbean Small Island Developing States.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

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Towards a just transition of the workplace: Baseline Analysis for the Electricity and Road Transport Sectors in Antigua and Barbuda