Differences between carbon budget estimates unravelled

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Date Published 2016, February 24

Authors Joeri Rogelj, Michiel Schaeffer, Pierre Friedlingstein, Nathan P. Gillett, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Myles Allen & Reto Knutti

Institution Nature Climate Change 6, 245–252 (2016) doi:10.1038/nclimate2868

Journal Nature Climate Change
6, 245–252, doi:10.1038/nclimate2868

Accepted estimates of how much carbon we can still burn by the end of this century and keep temperature rise to below 2°C range from 590 to 2390 billion tons of carbon dioxide. The high end of this estimate does not take into account warming by non-CO2 emissions and was never intended to be used to address a real-world policy question. Consequently, this study finds that the most appropriate carbon budget estimate for keeping warming to below 2°C is in the range of 590-1240 billion tons of carbon dioxide.