Below 2°C or 1.5°C depends on rapid action from both Annex I and non-Annex I countries

Date Published 2014, June 01

Authors Bill Hare, Michiel Schaeffer, Marie Lindberg, Niklas Höhne, Hanna Fekete, Louise Jeffery, Johannes Gütschow, Fabio Sferra, Marcia Rocha

Series Editor CAT Briefing

In this update the Climate Action Tracker has conducted a new analysis of the IPCC AR5 emissions database to evaluate the required level of global and regional action for 2020, 2025 and 2030 to limit warming to below 2°C or 1.5°C with a likely (66%) and high (85%) probability. A likely pathway for limiting warming below 2°C still has a one in three chance of exceeding this level, and possibly higher when uncertainties in the climate sensitivity and carbon cycle not included in the climate models are considered.