Global action remains insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal. Increasing the ambition of 2030 climate targets and accelerating emissions reductions in this decade are essential. This report presents technically feasible 1.5°C compatible energy and emissions pathways for the EU27 and assesses whether the EU’s current 2030 climate targets are aligned with limiting warming to 1.5°C.

The report finds that, to be 1.5°C compatible, the EU27 would need to cut its domestic emissions faster than currently planned. 1.5°C compatible pathways assessed in this report, and filtered to meet sustainability constraints, show that the EU27 can feasibly:

Reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions between 63-73% below 1990 levels excl. landuse, land use change and forestry (LULUCF). Accounting for LULUCF, this corresponds to a 66-77% reduction by 2030, relative to 1990 levels
Reach net zero GHG emissions between 2040-2045
Limit the EU27’s total cumulative CO2 emissions to 11-22GtCO2 from 2020 until mid-century(incl. LULUCF)

The analysis therefore suggests that the EU27’s current Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), which aims to cut emissions by 55% below 1990 levels by 2030 (incl. LULUCF), cannot be seen as compatible with 1.5°C.

The report also demonstrates how the EU27 could achieve these 1.5°C compatible benchmarks through a rapid transition to an efficient energy system powered by renewable energy sources. It focuses on two illustrative pathways, the HighRE scenario and the PAC scenario. The HighRE scenario is a downscaled version of an integrated assessment model pathway which relies on low-cost renewables to limit warming to 1.5°C while reducing reliance on bioenergy and carbon dioxide removal. The PAC scenario provides a bottom-up perspective on how the EU27+UK can reach absolute zero CO2 emissions by 2040. These pathways are produced by different methodologies, which gives a more robust assessment of 1.5°C compatible action for the EU27.

In these pathways, electricity provides 66-70% of final energy in 2050. There are also strong and sustained reductions in final energy demand, which means that by 2050, total energy demand in the EU27 can be up to 58% lower than in 2019. Overall, renewables provide 48-54% of final energy demand in 2030, rising to 92-100% of final energy by 2050.

Fossil fuels are rapidly displaced from the energy system in 1.5°C compatible pathways for the EU27. In the most ambitious pathways, coal is phased out of the energy system by the early 2030s, and oil/gas by 2040 at the latest. There is a particularly strong action in the power sector, where rapid deployment of wind and solar is the cornerstone of the energy transition. Key milestones for the power sector in these illustrative pathways include:

Coal phased out of power generation by 2030 and fossil gas by the mid-2030s
A transition to 100% fossil-free electricity by the mid-2030s
A transition to 100% renewable electricity by 2050 at the latest
Electricity generation more than doubling by 2050

It is clear that the EU27 can and must do more to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target and provide global leadership on the climate crisis. By providing an updated NDC which aims to cut emissions by at least 66% (incl. LULUCF) by 2030, by committing to 100% fossil-free electricity by the mid-2030s, and by bringing forward the date of net zero GHG emissions by up to a decade, the EU27 can drive ambitious climate action and help keep 1.5°C alive.

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Publications

1.5°C-aligned 2030 and 2035 GHG emissions targets

We have produced factsheets for Australia, China, the EU, India, Indonesia and USA showing 2030 and 2035 greenhouse gas emission reduction milestones for each jurisdiction to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal – both including and excluding land use, land-use change and forestry.

Climate Action Tracker: 2024 warming projection update

Despite an escalating climate crisis marked by unprecedented wildfires, storms, floods, and droughts, the Climate Action Tracker annual global temperature update shows global warming projections for 2100 are flatlining, with no improvement since 2021. The aggregate effect of current policies set the world on a path toward 2.7°C of warming.

Decarbonising light-duty vehicle road transport

The Climate Action Tracker provides updated 1.5ºC compatible benchmarks for the transport sector for the world as a whole and for seven individual countries; the US, EU, China, India, Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia.

Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please!

The 2024 edition of UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report shows how much higher nations must aim. To get on a least-cost pathway for 1.5°C, emissions must fall 42 per cent by 2030, compared to 2019 levels. G20 nations, particularly the largest-emitting members, would need to do the heavy lifting.

The role of northern forests in limiting warming to 1.5°C

Northern forests are critical in the race to net zero CO₂ by mid-century. Protecting and restoring these forests, alongside steep and rapid reductions in fossil fuel emissions, is essential both to mitigating emissions and to supporting forest ecosystem services and biodiversity.

Methodology underpinning the State of Climate Action series: 2024 update

This technical note describes the State of Climate Action series’ methodology for identifying sectors that must transform, translating these transformations into global mitigation targets primarily for 2030, 2035 and 2050 and selecting indicators with datasets to monitor annual change. It also outlines the report’s approach for assessing progress made toward near-term targets and comparing trends over time.

LNG shipbuilding industry heading to huge oversupply

The LNG shipbuilding industry appears to be doubling down on building new carriers, ignoring the global shift to a low carbon economy and putting itself into an even worse oversupply situation than a year ago, we find in our updated report.

Setting 1.5°C compatible wind and solar targets

Based on global energy system modelling sense-checked against key national studies, this report presents new analysis on what a 1.5°C-aligned rollout of wind and solar could look like for key countries. It aims to inform target setting for 2030, 2035 and beyond in third generation NDCs.

Technical guide for the development of long-term low emission development strategies in Africa

This technical guide proposes concrete steps and actions to help African countries develop strong, high-performing Long-Term Low Emission and Climate Resilient Development Strategies that chart a low-emission development path, build resilience, encourage innovation, and create new opportunities for green growth.

Evaluating the near and long-term role of carbon dioxide removal in meeting global climate objectives

For 1.5°C pathways with limited overshoot, most of the mitigation between now and 2030 should come from emissions reductions (70%), with reductions from cutting non-CO2 emissions (20%) and land-based carbon dioxide removals such as afforestation and preventing deforestation (10%) making up the remainder.

What good looks like: G7 climate policy 2024 update

This brief outlines seven key policy recommendations for this June’s G7 summit that, if adopted, would demonstrate the ambition and leadership needed to keep the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit in sight.

Tripling renewables by 2030: interpreting the global goal at the regional level

At COP28, governments agreed to triple global renewable capacity by 2030. This report breaks down what a 1.5ºC-aligned renewables rollout would look like at the regional level and calculate the associated investment needs.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

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1.5°C Pathways for the EU27: accelerating climate action to deliver the Paris Agreement