EU 2030 emissions reduction target must be brought into line with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit

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KEY MESSAGES

• The European Union Council is meeting 10-11 December to revise its 2030 domestic emissions reduction target to bring it into line with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C goal
• This briefing shows the domestic emission reductions needed by 2030 for the EU27 and three member states – France, Germany and Poland – based on downscaling of 1.5°C compatible global mitigation pathways published by the IPCC in the SR1.5.
• Paris Agreement compatible 2030 domestic emission reductions for the EU27 are in the range of 58-70% below 1990 levels
  - The EU Commission’s proposed 2030 emissions target of a 55% reduction below 1990 levels is not quite compatible with limiting warming to the 1.5°C long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement;
  - The EU Parliament’s proposed 60% target lies just within the Paris Agreement compatible band of 2030 emission reductions
  - A 65% target would ensure it is firmly within its 1.5°C compatible 2030 emissions range;
• If the EU Council adopts a 2030 domestic reduction target well within the Paris Agreement range of 58-70% the EU27 would join the UK in having fully Paris Agreement compatible domestic emission goals through to mid-century, 2050
• In addition to a stronger 2030 domestic reduction target the European Union will need to provide further support to less wealthy nations for emissions reductions abroad to ensure the EU is contributing its fair share of the global mitigation burden;
• 2030 targets of major EU countries Germany, France, and Poland all fall short of being 1.5°C compatible.