1 February, 2020

The impact of climate change on incomes and convergence in Africa

Authors

Florent Baarsch, Jessie Granadillos, Bill Hare, Maria Knaus, Mario Krapp, Michiel Schaeffer, Hermann Lotze-Campen

We estimate climate-induced losses in Africa by accounting for the dimensions of risks: exposure, vulnerability and hazards.

With losses up to 15 percent of GDP per capita growth, African economies are poorly adapted to their climatic conditions.

Western and Eastern African countries are projected to be the most affected countries on the continent.

Inequalities between countries are projected to widen as a consequence of climate change.

Solutions include raising mitigation ambition, scaling-up adaptation efforts and special treatments for the most vulnerable.

Publications

The role of northern forests in limiting warming to 1.5°C

Northern forests are critical in the race to net zero CO₂ by mid-century. Protecting and restoring these forests, alongside steep and rapid reductions in fossil fuel emissions, is essential both to mitigating emissions and to supporting forest ecosystem services and biodiversity.

Rapid urbanisation and climate change key drivers of dramatic flood impacts in Nepal

New study finds the devastating floods in Nepal late September were exacerbated by rapid urbanisation and climate change. The analysis found the relentless rain, which fell on saturated ground in the late monsoon, was made at least 10% heavier and 70% more likely by climate change.

Seasonal forecast of two-metre temperature and precipitation in Tanzania: A hybrid cluster and point-by-point machine learning approach

Seasonal forecasting of atmospheric parameters is important in various fields including agriculture. This study tests how machine learning can complement dynamic models using Tanzanian seasonal forecasts and finds this process uses far less computational power.

Overconfidence in climate overshoot

Even if it is possible to reverse the rise of global temperatures after a temporary overshoot of 1.5°C, some climate damages triggered at peak warming, including rising sea levels, will be irreversible, according to a new study published today in Nature.

Calculating the loss and damage finance gap: a scoping and feasibility exercise

At COP28, delegates agreed to operationalise a fund to compensate vulnerable countries coping with loss and damage caused by climate change. This report proposes a method for how to calculate how much finance the Global South needs for loss and damage.

Economic and non-economic loss and damage: a harmful dichotomy?

Loss and damage is treated as comprising separate ‘economic’ and ‘non-economic’ dimensions. This commentary argues that the two are inextricably linked and applied research should account for the multifaceted and cascading nature of loss and damage.

Solar geoengineering: a note to inform discussions on physical climate impacts, risks and governance issues

With international efforts on climate action still not on track to limit warming to 1.5°C, technological fixes that aim to intentionally alter the Earth’s climate, such as solar geoengineering, might seem like appealing options for tackling global warming. But they come with questions in terms of feasibility, impacts and risks, governance and geopolitics, and who may or may not benefit.

How can event attribution science underpin financial decisions on Loss and Damage?

With climate extremes hitting nations across the globe, disproportionately burdening vulnerable developing countries, funding for loss and damage is an acute need. Attribution science can provide useful information for decision makers.

Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks

Current climate policies are putting Earth on a path to a high risk of triggering climatic tipping points – even if temperatures return to below 1.5°C of global warming after a period of overshoot. A new study finds that the risk of crossing these thresholds increases with every additional 0.1 °C of overshoot above 1.5 °C and strongly accelerates above 2.0 °C. These risks can be minimised if stringent emissions reductions are taken in the next decade, and net zero greenhouse gas emissions are met and maintained.

Evaluating the near and long-term role of carbon dioxide removal in meeting global climate objectives

For 1.5°C pathways with limited overshoot, most of the mitigation between now and 2030 should come from emissions reductions (70%), with reductions from cutting non-CO2 emissions (20%) and land-based carbon dioxide removals such as afforestation and preventing deforestation (10%) making up the remainder.

Using existing databases to report on loss and damage in Biennial Transparency Reports under the UNFCCC

Calculating financing needs to respond to loss and damage requires response activities to be costed. However, comprehensive assessments of current and future loss and damage costs are largely unavailable. This briefing proposes using existing databases as proxies in the interim.

Article 6.4 progress update: work of the Supervisory Body on the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism

The Article 6.4 mechanism, now known as the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism, allows countries to trade reductions in carbon emissions in a manner that goes beyond zero-sum offsetting, to achieve their commitments under the Paris Agreement. This briefing aims to update Small Island Developing States and Least Developed Countries on the standards and procedures that have been adopted by the supervising body (Article 6.4) to inform the design of projects.

About us

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Comment