The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) estimate of the total warming of the aggregate effect of Paris Agreement commitments and of real-world policy shows little change. If all governments achieved their Paris Agreement commitments the world will likely warm 3.0°C—twice the 1.5°C limit they agreed in Paris.

Underneath the lack of progress at the global level, however, the CAT has detected real movement in a number of countries which, if extended, could bend the global emissions curve downward.
No government has yet increased its Paris Agreement commitment, so there has been almost no change to the Climate Action Tracker’s country ratings. Under the Paris Agreement enabling decisions all countries are to update their commitments—or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)—by 2020.
Little to no progress has been detected globally on climate action either, with the total global effect of currently implemented policies in countries expected to lead to warming of 3.3˚C by 2100, which is still above the Paris Agreement commitment level.
If governments, however, were to implement the planned or additional policies they have in the pipeline, warming could be reduced by 0.3°C to 3.0˚C by 2100, with global emissions in 2030 projected to be a little below those under full implementation of the Paris commitments.

The CAT’s projected warming from Paris Agreement commitments and real-world action of 3.0°C and 3.3°C, respectively, and lack of progress in advancing action stands in stark contrast to both the clear warning from the IPCC in its Special Report on 1.5°C of the consequence of exceeding 1.5°C warming and the strong finding that limiting warming to this level is feasible and has substantial economic and sustainable development benefits.

To find out whether there has been any progress on the ground, the CAT has looked at the most recent policy movements made by governments since Paris in 2015.

The majority of countries we track have not yet fully aligned their policies to actually achieve their commitments under the Paris Agreement.
However, we do detect real movement, with Argentina, Canada, Chile, Costa Rica, Ethiopia, the EU, India and Morocco taking significant steps in the right direction.
There has also been some movement in most of the other countries.
If extended and scaled, these combined efforts could begin to bend the global emissions curve.
Countries with no progress or movements in the wrong direction in emission reduction terms include Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, Russia and the UAE.
In the USA the Trump Administration continues its efforts to unwind policy, however emissions are slowing as coal continues to exit the power market, driven by the declining costs of renewables and storage.

Progress on climate action has been mixed in 2018:

While some countries, such as Norway and Costa Rica are forging ahead with decarbonisation of transport and renewable energy deployment, others risk losing their climate leadership positions, such as China, where coal use rose again for a second year running, and Brazil which appears to have turned away from its forest protection policies even before its recent change of government.
Several countries published, adopted or reinforced energy or electricity sector roadmaps which gives reason for hope, such as Chile’s 2050 energy strategy which aims at decarbonising the energy system, India adopting its National Electricity Plan and South Africa’slong-awaited energy resource strategy which foresees a shift away from coal toward renewables and gas.

The changes in CAT’s warming estimates in this update are largely due to improvements in methodology and data updates rather than actual government action in any direction.

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Publications

Decarbonising light-duty vehicle road transport

The Climate Action Tracker provides updated 1.5ºC compatible benchmarks for the transport sector for the world as a whole and for seven individual countries; the US, EU, China, India, Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia.

Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please!

The 2024 edition of UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report shows how much higher nations must aim. To get on a least-cost pathway for 1.5°C, emissions must fall 42 per cent by 2030, compared to 2019 levels. G20 nations, particularly the largest-emitting members, would need to do the heavy lifting.

The role of northern forests in limiting warming to 1.5°C

Northern forests are critical in the race to net zero CO₂ by mid-century. Protecting and restoring these forests, alongside steep and rapid reductions in fossil fuel emissions, is essential both to mitigating emissions and to supporting forest ecosystem services and biodiversity.

Methodology underpinning the State of Climate Action series: 2024 update

This technical note describes the State of Climate Action series’ methodology for identifying sectors that must transform, translating these transformations into global mitigation targets primarily for 2030, 2035 and 2050 and selecting indicators with datasets to monitor annual change. It also outlines the report’s approach for assessing progress made toward near-term targets and comparing trends over time.

LNG shipbuilding industry heading to huge oversupply

The LNG shipbuilding industry appears to be doubling down on building new carriers, ignoring the global shift to a low carbon economy and putting itself into an even worse oversupply situation than a year ago, we find in our updated report.

Setting 1.5°C compatible wind and solar targets

Based on global energy system modelling sense-checked against key national studies, this report presents new analysis on what a 1.5°C-aligned rollout of wind and solar could look like for key countries. It aims to inform target setting for 2030, 2035 and beyond in third generation NDCs.

Technical guide for the development of long-term low emission development strategies in Africa

This technical guide proposes concrete steps and actions to help African countries develop strong, high-performing Long-Term Low Emission and Climate Resilient Development Strategies that chart a low-emission development path, build resilience, encourage innovation, and create new opportunities for green growth.

Evaluating the near and long-term role of carbon dioxide removal in meeting global climate objectives

For 1.5°C pathways with limited overshoot, most of the mitigation between now and 2030 should come from emissions reductions (70%), with reductions from cutting non-CO2 emissions (20%) and land-based carbon dioxide removals such as afforestation and preventing deforestation (10%) making up the remainder.

What good looks like: G7 climate policy 2024 update

This brief outlines seven key policy recommendations for this June’s G7 summit that, if adopted, would demonstrate the ambition and leadership needed to keep the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit in sight.

Tripling renewables by 2030: interpreting the global goal at the regional level

At COP28, governments agreed to triple global renewable capacity by 2030. This report breaks down what a 1.5ºC-aligned renewables rollout would look like at the regional level and calculate the associated investment needs.

Submission to the Australian Treasury consultation on the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax

As the gas industry in Australia has grown exponentially, the profit taxes it pays to the government have proportionally plummeted, presenting an opportunity to change this regime. Here, we respond to the Australian Government Treasury consultation on the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) – anti-avoidance provisions and clarifying treatment of ‘exploration’ and Mining, Quarrying or Prospecting Rights.

COP28 initiatives will only reduce emissions if followed through

Few of the sectoral initiatives announced during COP28 will meaningfully contribute to closing the emissions gap. Many of them lack either the ambition, clarity, coverage or accountability needed to really make a difference.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

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Some progress since Paris, but not enough, as governments amble towards 3°C of warming