1 June, 2013

Scenario note: pathways towards returning warming to below 1.5°C by 2100


Joeri Rogelj

This briefing note provides information on illustrative emission pathways from the peer-reviewed literature that achieve limiting global-mean temperature increase to below 1.5°C by 2100. Two pathways are presented. Pathway A is a pathway that starts emission reductions immediately and already sees strong global emission reductions by 2020. Pathway B assumes that only limited emissions reductions are achieved by 2020 and then catches up significantly afterward. A short description of the pathways is followed by a discussion of the caveats.