The world is not on track to limit warming to 1.5°C and meet the Paris Agreement goals. The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) estimates that under current policies, the world will exceed 1.5°C of warming around 2035, 2°C around 2053, and 3.2°C by the end of the century.

If governments fully achieve the emissions cuts they have committed to, warming is likely to rise to 2.9°C – almost twice the 1.5°C limit they agreed in Paris.

Under both of these scenarios, there is a 10% chance of exceeding 4°C by the end of the century -- and even up to a 25% chance based on the higher end of the current policies scenario.

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The CAT finds that this year there has only been a tiny improvement in the total effect of Paris Agreement commitments and of national policies on warming by the end of the century since the last update December 2018, with action only inching forward - at best.

Governments need to correct their course by making bold commitments, starting at the UN Climate Action Summit on September 23, 2019 and scaling up climate action at home.

Governments have agreed to provide updated Paris Agreement commitments by 2020, but no government has yet done so.

It will be against these reference warming estimates that the CAT will track progress in government action and commitments between the UN Climate Action Summit on September 23, 2019 and the end of 2020.

The CAT has calculated what a ‘fair share’ contribution to limiting warming to 1.5°C would be in 2030 for seven countries (Australia, Chile, China, the EU, India, Indonesia, and Russia) and translated this, to the extent possible, into the way these governments formulate their commitments in order to help judge the scale of action of any announcements made in New York and over the coming year.

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While pursuing a 1.5°C compatible pathway is what is needed to avoid the climate crisis, the CAT has also provided two other benchmarks for 2030: how to move up one level of our rating and the “current path” for further comparison.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Publications

1.5°C-aligned 2030 and 2035 GHG emissions targets

We have produced factsheets for Australia, China, the EU, India, Indonesia and USA showing 2030 and 2035 greenhouse gas emission reduction milestones for each jurisdiction to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal – both including and excluding land use, land-use change and forestry.

Climate Action Tracker: 2024 warming projection update

Despite an escalating climate crisis marked by unprecedented wildfires, storms, floods, and droughts, the Climate Action Tracker annual global temperature update shows global warming projections for 2100 are flatlining, with no improvement since 2021. The aggregate effect of current policies set the world on a path toward 2.7°C of warming.

Decarbonising light-duty vehicle road transport

The Climate Action Tracker provides updated 1.5ºC compatible benchmarks for the transport sector for the world as a whole and for seven individual countries; the US, EU, China, India, Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia.

Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please!

The 2024 edition of UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report shows how much higher nations must aim. To get on a least-cost pathway for 1.5°C, emissions must fall 42 per cent by 2030, compared to 2019 levels. G20 nations, particularly the largest-emitting members, would need to do the heavy lifting.

The role of northern forests in limiting warming to 1.5°C

Northern forests are critical in the race to net zero CO₂ by mid-century. Protecting and restoring these forests, alongside steep and rapid reductions in fossil fuel emissions, is essential both to mitigating emissions and to supporting forest ecosystem services and biodiversity.

Methodology underpinning the State of Climate Action series: 2024 update

This technical note describes the State of Climate Action series’ methodology for identifying sectors that must transform, translating these transformations into global mitigation targets primarily for 2030, 2035 and 2050 and selecting indicators with datasets to monitor annual change. It also outlines the report’s approach for assessing progress made toward near-term targets and comparing trends over time.

LNG shipbuilding industry heading to huge oversupply

The LNG shipbuilding industry appears to be doubling down on building new carriers, ignoring the global shift to a low carbon economy and putting itself into an even worse oversupply situation than a year ago, we find in our updated report.

Setting 1.5°C compatible wind and solar targets

Based on global energy system modelling sense-checked against key national studies, this report presents new analysis on what a 1.5°C-aligned rollout of wind and solar could look like for key countries. It aims to inform target setting for 2030, 2035 and beyond in third generation NDCs.

Technical guide for the development of long-term low emission development strategies in Africa

This technical guide proposes concrete steps and actions to help African countries develop strong, high-performing Long-Term Low Emission and Climate Resilient Development Strategies that chart a low-emission development path, build resilience, encourage innovation, and create new opportunities for green growth.

Evaluating the near and long-term role of carbon dioxide removal in meeting global climate objectives

For 1.5°C pathways with limited overshoot, most of the mitigation between now and 2030 should come from emissions reductions (70%), with reductions from cutting non-CO2 emissions (20%) and land-based carbon dioxide removals such as afforestation and preventing deforestation (10%) making up the remainder.

What good looks like: G7 climate policy 2024 update

This brief outlines seven key policy recommendations for this June’s G7 summit that, if adopted, would demonstrate the ambition and leadership needed to keep the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit in sight.

Tripling renewables by 2030: interpreting the global goal at the regional level

At COP28, governments agreed to triple global renewable capacity by 2030. This report breaks down what a 1.5ºC-aligned renewables rollout would look like at the regional level and calculate the associated investment needs.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

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Pledged action leads to 2.9°C - time to boost national climate action