10 June, 2009

Halfway to Copenhagen, no way to 2 °C


Joeri Rogelj, Bill Hare, Julia Nabel, Kirsten Macey, Michiel Schaeffer, Kathleen Markmann & Malte Meinshausen

International climate negotiations are picking up speed as the deadline for agreeing a global treaty approaches. Countries are now making clear their own commitments to reducing greenhouse gas emissions under amendments to the Kyoto Protocol1 and under a new agreement or protocol to be decided in Copenhagen in December2. Here we compile all of the current position statements from developed and developing countries and ask three questions: what do they add up to in terms of global greenhouse gas emissions, what are the consequences for the global climate system and how do they collectively compare to the goals of limiting warming to 1.5 °C or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels?