Decision support for international climate policy – the PRIMAP emission module
Sound decisions in international climate policy depend on comprehensive and reliable emission data as well as accurate analysis and comparisons of policy proposals. In this context, the emission module of the Potsdam Real-time Integrated Model for the probabilistic Assessment of emission Paths (PRIMAP) has been developed.
This article describes its design and functionality. The emission module allows for the flexible combination of data sources contained in its custom-built database into composite datasets, and the calculation of national, regional and global emission pathways following various emission allocation schemes.
The resulting emission pathways can further be used to determine atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperature probability distributions using the PRIMAP climate module, which currently incorporates the reduced complexity climate and carbon-cycle model MAGICC. In addition to the calculation of emission pathways, the PRIMAP emission module supports analysis of policy options, like the quantification of different land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) accounting provisions for Annex I countries.
We discuss three applications of the PRIMAP emission module. In a bottom-up approach, we implement the pledges from the Copenhagen Accord, the announced developed country emission targets, in which provisions from LULUCF are taken into account. For the derivation of developing country emission pathways two different approaches are applied: capped per capita emissions and equal cumulative per capita emissions at average developed country levels. As a third example we implement a top-down approach, which equalises cumulative per capita emissions in a global emission pathway to achieve the 2 °C target with a likely (greater than 66%) probability.
When will global greenhouse gas emissions peak?
The IPCC says peaking before 2025 is a critical step to keep the 1.5°C limit within reach. With emissions set to rise in 2023, this leaves limited time to act. To assess if we can meet this milestone, we look at when global emissions might peak, as well as what we can do to get there in time.
Wind and solar benchmarks for a 1.5°C world
This report presents a detailed methodology for determining the amount of wind and solar capacity that is required for a country to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal. While the focus of the report is the method, it includes illustrative benchmarks for Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Germany, South Africa.
A 1.5°C future is possible: getting fossil fuels out of the Philippine power sector
The Philippines is also one of the fastest-growing developing countries: poverty is in decline, access to energy is rising and, with that, demand for energy services. However, fossil fuels still dominate the energy system, accounting for 78% of power generation in 2022. This report sets out what the Philippines government needs to do to get the country’s power sector onto a 1.5˚C compatible emissions pathway, replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy.
State of Climate Action 2023
This report finds that global efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C are failing across the board, with recent progress made on every indicator – except electric vehicle sales – lagging behind the pace and scale needed to address the climate crisis.
Production Gap Report 2023
Governments, in aggregate, still plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The persistence of the global production gap puts a well-managed and equitable energy transition at risk.
Emissions impossible: Unpacking CSIRO GISERA Beetaloo Middle Arm fossil gas emissions estimates
This report provides an independent evaluation of the CSIRO and GISERA assessments of the potential greenhouse gas emissions that would result from the exploitation of the Beetaloo fossil shale gas reserves.
Adjusting 1.5°C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information
This study uses an integrated assessment model to explore how 1.5°C pathways could adjust in light of new adverse information, such as a reduced 1.5°C carbon budget, or slower-than-expected low-carbon technology deployment.
Railway development: lessons for the EU
This paper analyses how EU railway policy for a low-carbon future can be enhanced, drawing insights from Japan and Switzerland.
2030 targets aligned to 1.5°C: evidence from the latest global pathways
Our new method applies sustainability limits and minimises the need for carbon dioxide removal to set key 2030 global targets for renewables, fossil fuels and emissions.
The biogeophysical effects of idealised land cover and land management changes in Earth system models
The dependence of different land cover and land management change options on the background climate are still poorly understood across different Earth system models.
De la CDN 1.0 à la CDN 2.0: qu'est-ce qui a changé dans les CDN des PMA de l’Afrique de l'Ouest?
La présente étude examine les premières et les secondes Contributions Déterminées au niveau National des onze pays les moins avancés de l’Afrique de l’Ouest à savoir le Bénin, le Burkina Faso, la Gambie, la Guinée, la Guinée Bissau, le Libéria, le Mali, le Niger, le Sénégal, la Sierra Leone et le Togo.