This paper presents a set of scenarios that simulate different mitigation commitments made by G20 countries for 2030 and mid-century and the resulting impacts on global temperature rise.

Highlights

The G20—a group collectively accounting for around 75 percent of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, 80 percent of global GDP, and two-thirds of global population—has an outsized role to play in addressing climate change.

Current submitted nationally determined contributions (NDCs), together with legally binding net zero commitments, put the world on a trajectory to 2.4°C of warming by the end of the century.

Additional 2030 and net zero pledges that have been announced by the G20 countries but not yet formalised in the NDCs or binding net zero targets could lower projected temperature rise in 2100 to 2.1°C, if fully implemented.

This is an important step in the right direction but still far from sufficient to meet the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal. Moreover, the announced net zero pledges would in most cases require very steep emissions reductions from pledged 2030 levels, which is out of step with feasible pathways identified by global modeling efforts. Ambitious action to rapidly cut emissions in the 2020s is urgently needed to improve the robustness of the pathway to net zero.

If all G20 members were to adopt mid-century net zero commitments and align their NDCs with a 1.5°C pathway, end-of-century global warming could be limited to 1.7°C.

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With this 0.7°C drop, down from 2.4°C under current commitments, G20 countries could collectively close three-quarters of the temperature gap to 1.5°C, keeping it within reach.

Those G20 members that have not yet strengthened their NDCs or committed to achieving net zero emissions should do so urgently.

To ultimately achieve the 1.5°C goal, ambitious action from non-G20 countries is needed too, as well as efforts to curb emissions from international aviation and shipping.

Achieving ambitious targets will require developed countries to substantially ramp up financial support to developing countries to help reduce emissions and build resilience against climate impacts. G20 developed countries have a particular responsibility to step up their public finance and mobilize private finance for international climate action, to close the gap to the commitment of $100 billion per year and go beyond.

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Publications

Climate Action Tracker: 2024 warming projection update

Despite an escalating climate crisis marked by unprecedented wildfires, storms, floods, and droughts, the Climate Action Tracker annual global temperature update shows global warming projections for 2100 are flatlining, with no improvement since 2021. The aggregate effect of current policies set the world on a path toward 2.7°C of warming.

Decarbonising light-duty vehicle road transport

The Climate Action Tracker provides updated 1.5ºC compatible benchmarks for the transport sector for the world as a whole and for seven individual countries; the US, EU, China, India, Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia.

Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please!

The 2024 edition of UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report shows how much higher nations must aim. To get on a least-cost pathway for 1.5°C, emissions must fall 42 per cent by 2030, compared to 2019 levels. G20 nations, particularly the largest-emitting members, would need to do the heavy lifting.

The role of northern forests in limiting warming to 1.5°C

Northern forests are critical in the race to net zero CO₂ by mid-century. Protecting and restoring these forests, alongside steep and rapid reductions in fossil fuel emissions, is essential both to mitigating emissions and to supporting forest ecosystem services and biodiversity.

Methodology underpinning the State of Climate Action series: 2024 update

This technical note describes the State of Climate Action series’ methodology for identifying sectors that must transform, translating these transformations into global mitigation targets primarily for 2030, 2035 and 2050 and selecting indicators with datasets to monitor annual change. It also outlines the report’s approach for assessing progress made toward near-term targets and comparing trends over time.

LNG shipbuilding industry heading to huge oversupply

The LNG shipbuilding industry appears to be doubling down on building new carriers, ignoring the global shift to a low carbon economy and putting itself into an even worse oversupply situation than a year ago, we find in our updated report.

Setting 1.5°C compatible wind and solar targets

Based on global energy system modelling sense-checked against key national studies, this report presents new analysis on what a 1.5°C-aligned rollout of wind and solar could look like for key countries. It aims to inform target setting for 2030, 2035 and beyond in third generation NDCs.

Technical guide for the development of long-term low emission development strategies in Africa

This technical guide proposes concrete steps and actions to help African countries develop strong, high-performing Long-Term Low Emission and Climate Resilient Development Strategies that chart a low-emission development path, build resilience, encourage innovation, and create new opportunities for green growth.

Evaluating the near and long-term role of carbon dioxide removal in meeting global climate objectives

For 1.5°C pathways with limited overshoot, most of the mitigation between now and 2030 should come from emissions reductions (70%), with reductions from cutting non-CO2 emissions (20%) and land-based carbon dioxide removals such as afforestation and preventing deforestation (10%) making up the remainder.

What good looks like: G7 climate policy 2024 update

This brief outlines seven key policy recommendations for this June’s G7 summit that, if adopted, would demonstrate the ambition and leadership needed to keep the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit in sight.

Tripling renewables by 2030: interpreting the global goal at the regional level

At COP28, governments agreed to triple global renewable capacity by 2030. This report breaks down what a 1.5ºC-aligned renewables rollout would look like at the regional level and calculate the associated investment needs.

Submission to the Australian Treasury consultation on the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax

As the gas industry in Australia has grown exponentially, the profit taxes it pays to the government have proportionally plummeted, presenting an opportunity to change this regime. Here, we respond to the Australian Government Treasury consultation on the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) – anti-avoidance provisions and clarifying treatment of ‘exploration’ and Mining, Quarrying or Prospecting Rights.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

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Closing the gap: the impact of G20 climate commitments on limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C