This paper presents a set of scenarios that simulate different mitigation commitments made by G20 countries for 2030 and mid-century and the resulting impacts on global temperature rise.
- The G20—a group collectively accounting for around 75 percent of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, 80 percent of global GDP, and two-thirds of global population—has an outsized role to play in addressing climate change.
- Current submitted nationally determined contributions (NDCs), together with legally binding net zero commitments, put the world on a trajectory to 2.4°C of warming by the end of the century.
- Additional 2030 and net zero pledges that have been announced by the G20 countries but not yet formalised in the NDCs or binding net zero targets could lower projected temperature rise in 2100 to 2.1°C, if fully implemented.
- This is an important step in the right direction but still far from sufficient to meet the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal. Moreover, the announced net zero pledges would in most cases require very steep emissions reductions from pledged 2030 levels, which is out of step with feasible pathways identified by global modeling efforts. Ambitious action to rapidly cut emissions in the 2020s is urgently needed to improve the robustness of the pathway to net zero.
- If all G20 members were to adopt mid-century net zero commitments and align their NDCs with a 1.5°C pathway, end-of-century global warming could be limited to 1.7°C.
- With this 0.7°C drop, down from 2.4°C under current commitments, G20 countries could collectively close three-quarters of the temperature gap to 1.5°C, keeping it within reach.
- Those G20 members that have not yet strengthened their NDCs or committed to achieving net zero emissions should do so urgently.
- To ultimately achieve the 1.5°C goal, ambitious action from non-G20 countries is needed too, as well as efforts to curb emissions from international aviation and shipping.
- Achieving ambitious targets will require developed countries to substantially ramp up financial support to developing countries to help reduce emissions and build resilience against climate impacts. G20 developed countries have a particular responsibility to step up their public finance and mobilize private finance for international climate action, to close the gap to the commitment of $100 billion per year and go beyond.
Unabated: the Carbon Capture and Storage 86 billion tonne carbon bomb aimed at derailing a fossil phase out
The climate talks at COP28 have centred around the need for a fossil fuel phase out. Our analysis quantifies the risk posed by restricting a phase out commitment to only ‘unabated’ fossil fuels.
No change to warming as fossil fuel endgame brings focus onto false solutions
The CAT's annual warming estimate has risen by 0.1˚C to 2.5˚C. The estimate is largely influenced by weak existing targets rather than shifts triggered by updated Nationally Determined Contributions.
When will global greenhouse gas emissions peak?
The IPCC says peaking before 2025 is a critical step to keep the 1.5°C limit within reach. With emissions set to rise in 2023, this leaves limited time to act. To assess if we can meet this milestone, we look at when global emissions might peak, as well as what we can do to get there in time.
Wind and solar benchmarks for a 1.5°C world
This report presents a detailed methodology for determining the amount of wind and solar capacity that is required for a country to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal. While the focus of the report is the method, it includes illustrative benchmarks for Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Germany, South Africa.
A 1.5°C future is possible: getting fossil fuels out of the Philippine power sector
The Philippines is also one of the fastest-growing developing countries: poverty is in decline, access to energy is rising and, with that, demand for energy services. However, fossil fuels still dominate the energy system, accounting for 78% of power generation in 2022. This report sets out what the Philippines government needs to do to get the country’s power sector onto a 1.5˚C compatible emissions pathway, replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy.
Production Gap Report 2023
Governments, in aggregate, still plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The persistence of the global production gap puts a well-managed and equitable energy transition at risk.
Emissions impossible: Unpacking CSIRO GISERA Beetaloo Middle Arm fossil gas emissions estimates
This report provides an independent evaluation of the CSIRO and GISERA assessments of the potential greenhouse gas emissions that would result from the exploitation of the Beetaloo fossil shale gas reserves.
Adjusting 1.5°C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information
This study uses an integrated assessment model to explore how 1.5°C pathways could adjust in light of new adverse information, such as a reduced 1.5°C carbon budget, or slower-than-expected low-carbon technology deployment.
Railway development: lessons for the EU
This paper analyses how EU railway policy for a low-carbon future can be enhanced, drawing insights from Japan and Switzerland.
Ramping up energy storage: lessons for the EU
This paper explores how the EU can enhance its policy for a low-carbon future by learning from successful energy storage approaches in California, South Korea, and Australia.