Despite decarbonisation targets and efforts, emissions from the transport sector have been increasing over the last three decades. Total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in transport increased by more than 33% between 1990 and 2019 and road transport emissions by almost 28%. Of these emissions, the largest share was from passenger cars (44%) and only 19% came from heavy-duty vehicles.
Projections show that without additional measures, transport emissions will continue to increase through 2025 and reach 9% above 1990 levels in 2030. Without abatement, transport emissions alone could take up the entire carbon budget allotted to the EU under 1.5ºC compatible pathways outlined in the Paris Agreement.
Considering the rapid depletion of material resources, we see an increasing number of areas where not only conventional business models, but also our daily activities and habits must be rethought and readjusted to reduce emissions from the transport sector. Adapting habits may be the most difficult step, and we need to find incentives to persuade people to move away from what we are used to.
Changing mobility behaviour is an urgent issue and identifying which measures are the most effective will be critical to addressing this in a timely manner. Classic economic instruments, incentives, and education all offer unique benefits, but come with limitations as well. The end goal is simple: measures that align mobility with sustainable goals and are acceptable to society.
Behavioural change is not based on an information deficit, but on attitudes and beliefs. Social acceptance level grows with area-education and educational efforts will have to be the basis for any changes. Education alone is not sufficient: individuals must be persuaded that behavioural changes will bring benefits to their lives. It is recommended to focus on influencing people’s attitudes or social behaviour at earlier stages and on influencing their beliefs at later stages of change.
Unabated: the Carbon Capture and Storage 86 billion tonne carbon bomb aimed at derailing a fossil phase out
The climate talks at COP28 have centred around the need for a fossil fuel phase out. Our analysis quantifies the risk posed by restricting a phase out commitment to only ‘unabated’ fossil fuels.
No change to warming as fossil fuel endgame brings focus onto false solutions
The CAT's annual warming estimate has risen by 0.1˚C to 2.5˚C. The estimate is largely influenced by weak existing targets rather than shifts triggered by updated Nationally Determined Contributions.
When will global greenhouse gas emissions peak?
The IPCC says peaking before 2025 is a critical step to keep the 1.5°C limit within reach. With emissions set to rise in 2023, this leaves limited time to act. To assess if we can meet this milestone, we look at when global emissions might peak, as well as what we can do to get there in time.
Wind and solar benchmarks for a 1.5°C world
This report presents a detailed methodology for determining the amount of wind and solar capacity that is required for a country to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal. While the focus of the report is the method, it includes illustrative benchmarks for Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Germany, South Africa.
A 1.5°C future is possible: getting fossil fuels out of the Philippine power sector
The Philippines is also one of the fastest-growing developing countries: poverty is in decline, access to energy is rising and, with that, demand for energy services. However, fossil fuels still dominate the energy system, accounting for 78% of power generation in 2022. This report sets out what the Philippines government needs to do to get the country’s power sector onto a 1.5˚C compatible emissions pathway, replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy.
Production Gap Report 2023
Governments, in aggregate, still plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The persistence of the global production gap puts a well-managed and equitable energy transition at risk.
Emissions impossible: Unpacking CSIRO GISERA Beetaloo Middle Arm fossil gas emissions estimates
This report provides an independent evaluation of the CSIRO and GISERA assessments of the potential greenhouse gas emissions that would result from the exploitation of the Beetaloo fossil shale gas reserves.
Adjusting 1.5°C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information
This study uses an integrated assessment model to explore how 1.5°C pathways could adjust in light of new adverse information, such as a reduced 1.5°C carbon budget, or slower-than-expected low-carbon technology deployment.
Railway development: lessons for the EU
This paper analyses how EU railway policy for a low-carbon future can be enhanced, drawing insights from Japan and Switzerland.
Ramping up energy storage: lessons for the EU
This paper explores how the EU can enhance its policy for a low-carbon future by learning from successful energy storage approaches in California, South Korea, and Australia.