18 November, 2020

The Climate Transparency Report 2020

Authors

The Climate Transparency Report (previously known as "Brown to Green Report”) is the world’s most comprehensive annual review of G20 countries’ climate action and their transition to a net zero emissions economy. This year’s report consists of two parts: the annual policy assessment based on data of the previous year(s) is complemented by an analysis of the impacts of the COVID-19 crisis and recovery efforts on countries’ climate ambition.

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Climate Transparency Report 2020: Key findings at a glance

COVID-19 impact on emissions: G20 CO2 emissions are projected to decrease by 7.5% in 2020

G20 recovery spending: too much support for fossil fuels

18 G20 countries are providing some support to green industries (except Saudi Arabia and Russia)
10 G20 countries are providing support to the domestic coal sector
10 countries are providing support to the gas sector
9 countries are providing support to the oil sector
14 countries bailed out their national airline companies without conditions attached (only France has included conditions to its bailout)
7 countries are providing support to the automobile industry without conditions attached (only Germany and France are providing support with environmental conditions attached)

Vulnerability: G20 countries are experiencing the impacts of climate change

Between 1999 & 2018, G20 countries lost about 220,000 lives & USD 2.6tn to extreme weather events
More severe impacts (compared to other countries) are projected at 1.5°C for Australia, Brazil, France, India, Indonesia, Italy, Mexico, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa
Adaptation (2019): 19 G20 countries have adaptation plans (except Saudi Arabia)

Mitigation (2019): the G20 are not on track for a 1.5°c world

CO2 energy-related emissions down 0.1% in 2019
carbon-intensity of primary energy supply -0.8%
coal consumption -2%
CO2 emissions from the power sector -2.4%
27% of power generated from renewables, compared to 25% in 2018
CO2 emissions from the building sector +0.9% in 2019
energy-related CO2 emissions from the agriculture sector -0.5%
Fossil fuels still 81.5% of primary energy
Consumption grows in Gas +3% and Oil +1%
CO2 emissions from the transport sector +1.5%
CO2 emissions from the industry sector +1.2%

Policy leaders and laggards

Renewable energy: No country has 1.5°C aligned renewable energy targets. 16 G20 members have policies to increase renewable generation (except Australia, Mexico, USA and Canada)
Coal: Only Canada, France, Italy, and the UK have 1.5°C compatible coal phase-out dates, 10 countries have policies in place to reduce coal consumption.
Transport: The UK, Canada, Japan and France have targets to phase out fossil fuel cars, Australia and Russia have no policies in place to reduce emissions from passenger vehicles. No countries have ambitious policies for decarbonising heavy-duty vehicles.
Buildings: France, Italy and Germany have 1.5°C compatible policies in place for new zero-energy buildings. Russia and Argentina do not have any policies in this area. No country has 1.5 compatible policies for retrofitting buildings.
Energy efficiency: Italy and Japan are frontrunners, Germany and India follow with high ambition policies.
Deforestation: China, EU and Mexico have the most ambitious policies but none of them are 1.5°C compatible.

Finance (2019): G20 members are making progress on mitigating climate-related financial risks

Financial policies: 17 G20 countries have initiated discussions or are already implementing some form of green finance principles (except India, Saudi Arabia and South Korea)
Fossil fuel subsidies: G20 countries directed USD 130bn in subsidies to coal, oil, and gas in 2019 (excluding Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the UK)
Carbon pricing: 18 G20 countries implementing explicit carbon-pricing schemes (except India and Australia) but carbon prices remain lower than required to align with Paris goals
Public finance: 13 G20 countries partially or fully restrict coal finance (except China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa); 17 G20 members have no restrictions for oil & gas finance

Read the 2019 report

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Publications

Tripling renewables by 2030: interpreting the global goal at the regional level

At COP28, governments agreed to triple global renewable capacity by 2030. This report breaks down what a 1.5ºC-aligned renewables rollout would look like at the regional level and calculate the associated investment needs.

Submission to the Australian Treasury consultation on the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax

As the gas industry in Australia has grown exponentially, the profit taxes it pays to the government have proportionally plummeted, presenting an opportunity to change this regime. Here, we respond to the Australian Government Treasury consultation on the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) – anti-avoidance provisions and clarifying treatment of ‘exploration’ and Mining, Quarrying or Prospecting Rights.

COP28 initiatives will only reduce emissions if followed through

Few of the sectoral initiatives announced during COP28 will meaningfully contribute to closing the emissions gap. Many of them lack either the ambition, clarity, coverage or accountability needed to really make a difference.

Unabated: the Carbon Capture and Storage 86 billion tonne carbon bomb aimed at derailing a fossil phase-out

The climate talks at COP28 have centred around the need for a fossil fuel phase-out. Our analysis quantifies the risk posed by restricting a phase-out commitment to only ‘unabated’ fossil fuels.

No change to warming as fossil fuel endgame brings focus onto false solutions

The CAT's annual warming estimate has risen by 0.1˚C to 2.5˚C. The estimate is largely influenced by weak existing targets rather than shifts triggered by updated Nationally Determined Contributions.

Submission on Australia's future gas strategy

The Australian government asked for answers to its questions around the future of its gas strategy. This was our submission.

When will global greenhouse gas emissions peak?

The IPCC says peaking before 2025 is a critical step to keep the 1.5°C limit within reach. With emissions set to rise in 2023, this leaves limited time to act. To assess if we can meet this milestone, we look at when global emissions might peak, as well as what we can do to get there in time.

Wind and solar benchmarks for a 1.5°C world

This report presents a detailed methodology for determining the amount of wind and solar capacity that is required for a country to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal. While the focus of the report is the method, it includes illustrative benchmarks for Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Germany, South Africa.

A 1.5°C future is possible: getting fossil fuels out of the Philippine power sector

The Philippines is also one of the fastest-growing developing countries: poverty is in decline, access to energy is rising and, with that, demand for energy services. However, fossil fuels still dominate the energy system, accounting for 78% of power generation in 2022. This report sets out what the Philippines government needs to do to get the country’s power sector onto a 1.5˚C compatible emissions pathway, replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy.

State of Climate Action 2023

This report finds that global efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C are failing across the board, with recent progress made on every indicator – except electric vehicle sales – lagging behind the pace and scale needed to address the climate crisis.

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Production Gap Report 2023

Governments, in aggregate, still plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The persistence of the global production gap puts a well-managed and equitable energy transition at risk.

Emissions impossible: Unpacking CSIRO GISERA Beetaloo Middle Arm fossil gas emissions estimates

This report provides an independent evaluation of the CSIRO and GISERA assessments of the potential greenhouse gas emissions that would result from the exploitation of the Beetaloo fossil shale gas reserves.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

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