Limiting global temperature increase to 1.5°C is highly relevant for Indonesia as, at 3% of global emissions (incl. LULUCF), it is among the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitters and expected to be among the worst affected by climate change.

This report, the fourth country assessment in the Climate Action Tracker’s Scaling Up Climate Action Series, analyses areas where Indonesia could accelerate its climate action. The report illustrates GHG emissions reductions from such actions, along with other benefits.

In Indonesia, there is tremendous potential to scale up climate action, especially in the focus areas of this study: electricity supply, passenger transport, and forestry. Increasing climate action now would initiate technically-feasible and socio-economically beneficial sectoral transitions towards a zero-emissions society while directly benefitting Indonesia’s sustainable development agenda.

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Scaling up climate action in the electricity supply, passenger ground transport and forestry sectors, which together covered about 70% of Indonesia’s emissions in 2014, would lead to curbing emissions growth and could achieve a 20% reduction in emissions below 2010 by 2030. This stands in stark contrast to the currently projected 58-68% emissions increase under Indonesia’s Paris Agreement Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). It would initiate Indonesia’s transition towards zero emissions in line with the Paris Agreement and peak Indonesian GHG emissions excluding deforestation and land use shortly after 2030.

To get on track toward Paris Agreement-compatible emissions reductions, Indonesia needs to urgently scale up climate action in the electricity and transport sectors, decarbonising them by 2050, with phasing out coal power generation, ramping up renewable energy generation and electrifying the growing transport fleet, as essential strategies. The Indonesian forestry sector has the single largest potential for reducing domestic emissions and Indonesia can turn its forestry sector into a net sink of carbon emissions by 2030 if takes significant steps to halt peat fires, reduce deforestation rates and restore degraded peatlands.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Publications

Tripling renewables by 2030: interpreting the global goal at the regional level

At COP28, governments agreed to triple global renewable capacity by 2030. This report breaks down what a 1.5ºC-aligned renewables rollout would look like at the regional level and calculate the associated investment needs.

Submission to the Australian Treasury consultation on the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax

As the gas industry in Australia has grown exponentially, the profit taxes it pays to the government have proportionally plummeted, presenting an opportunity to change this regime. Here, we respond to the Australian Government Treasury consultation on the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) – anti-avoidance provisions and clarifying treatment of ‘exploration’ and Mining, Quarrying or Prospecting Rights.

COP28 initiatives will only reduce emissions if followed through

Few of the sectoral initiatives announced during COP28 will meaningfully contribute to closing the emissions gap. Many of them lack either the ambition, clarity, coverage or accountability needed to really make a difference.

Unabated: the Carbon Capture and Storage 86 billion tonne carbon bomb aimed at derailing a fossil phase-out

The climate talks at COP28 have centred around the need for a fossil fuel phase-out. Our analysis quantifies the risk posed by restricting a phase-out commitment to only ‘unabated’ fossil fuels.

No change to warming as fossil fuel endgame brings focus onto false solutions

The CAT's annual warming estimate has risen by 0.1˚C to 2.5˚C. The estimate is largely influenced by weak existing targets rather than shifts triggered by updated Nationally Determined Contributions.

Submission on Australia's future gas strategy

The Australian government asked for answers to its questions around the future of its gas strategy. This was our submission.

When will global greenhouse gas emissions peak?

The IPCC says peaking before 2025 is a critical step to keep the 1.5°C limit within reach. With emissions set to rise in 2023, this leaves limited time to act. To assess if we can meet this milestone, we look at when global emissions might peak, as well as what we can do to get there in time.

Wind and solar benchmarks for a 1.5°C world

This report presents a detailed methodology for determining the amount of wind and solar capacity that is required for a country to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal. While the focus of the report is the method, it includes illustrative benchmarks for Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Germany, South Africa.

A 1.5°C future is possible: getting fossil fuels out of the Philippine power sector

The Philippines is also one of the fastest-growing developing countries: poverty is in decline, access to energy is rising and, with that, demand for energy services. However, fossil fuels still dominate the energy system, accounting for 78% of power generation in 2022. This report sets out what the Philippines government needs to do to get the country’s power sector onto a 1.5˚C compatible emissions pathway, replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy.

State of Climate Action 2023

This report finds that global efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C are failing across the board, with recent progress made on every indicator – except electric vehicle sales – lagging behind the pace and scale needed to address the climate crisis.

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Production Gap Report 2023

Governments, in aggregate, still plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The persistence of the global production gap puts a well-managed and equitable energy transition at risk.

Emissions impossible: Unpacking CSIRO GISERA Beetaloo Middle Arm fossil gas emissions estimates

This report provides an independent evaluation of the CSIRO and GISERA assessments of the potential greenhouse gas emissions that would result from the exploitation of the Beetaloo fossil shale gas reserves.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

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Scaling up climate action in Indonesia