After officially rejoining the Paris Agreement, the Biden administration is now preparing a new 2030 Paris Agreement target – or Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) that is expected to be announced in time for the Leaders’ Climate Summit on Earth Day (22 April).
The CAT’s analysis indicates that the new US NDC should aim to reduce its national emissions by at least 57-63% below 2005 levels by 2030 (incl. LULUCF) and provide support to other countries in order to be consistent with the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit.
The CAT analysis looks at President Biden’s plans for three sectors and compares them with benchmarks defined in its benchmarks report:
- Decarbonising the US power sector by 2035 is consistent with a Paris Agreement pathway;
- For the transport sector, the largest source of emissions in the US, there is still a long way to go. While President Biden has begun the process toward clean passenger vehicles, he has set no targets nor timelines. The CAT analysis shows that to be compatible with the Paris Agreement 1.5 ̊C temperature limit, 95%-100% of sales of new light-duty vehicles in the US should be zero-emissions at national level by 2030. Progress has been made in states (such as California) and by automakers, but needs to be taken nationwide;
- For the buildings sector, President Biden plans to reduce the carbon footprint of the US buildings sector by 50% by 2035. However, to be Paris Agreement compatible, the CAT analysis indicates that by 2030, emissions in the US buildings sector should be around 60% lower in residential buildings, and 70% lower in commercial buildings (from 2015 levels).
Unabated: the Carbon Capture and Storage 86 billion tonne carbon bomb aimed at derailing a fossil phase out
The climate talks at COP28 have centred around the need for a fossil fuel phase out. Our analysis quantifies the risk posed by restricting a phase out commitment to only ‘unabated’ fossil fuels.
No change to warming as fossil fuel endgame brings focus onto false solutions
The CAT's annual warming estimate has risen by 0.1˚C to 2.5˚C. The estimate is largely influenced by weak existing targets rather than shifts triggered by updated Nationally Determined Contributions.
When will global greenhouse gas emissions peak?
The IPCC says peaking before 2025 is a critical step to keep the 1.5°C limit within reach. With emissions set to rise in 2023, this leaves limited time to act. To assess if we can meet this milestone, we look at when global emissions might peak, as well as what we can do to get there in time.
Wind and solar benchmarks for a 1.5°C world
This report presents a detailed methodology for determining the amount of wind and solar capacity that is required for a country to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal. While the focus of the report is the method, it includes illustrative benchmarks for Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Germany, South Africa.
A 1.5°C future is possible: getting fossil fuels out of the Philippine power sector
The Philippines is also one of the fastest-growing developing countries: poverty is in decline, access to energy is rising and, with that, demand for energy services. However, fossil fuels still dominate the energy system, accounting for 78% of power generation in 2022. This report sets out what the Philippines government needs to do to get the country’s power sector onto a 1.5˚C compatible emissions pathway, replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy.
Production Gap Report 2023
Governments, in aggregate, still plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The persistence of the global production gap puts a well-managed and equitable energy transition at risk.
Emissions impossible: Unpacking CSIRO GISERA Beetaloo Middle Arm fossil gas emissions estimates
This report provides an independent evaluation of the CSIRO and GISERA assessments of the potential greenhouse gas emissions that would result from the exploitation of the Beetaloo fossil shale gas reserves.
Adjusting 1.5°C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information
This study uses an integrated assessment model to explore how 1.5°C pathways could adjust in light of new adverse information, such as a reduced 1.5°C carbon budget, or slower-than-expected low-carbon technology deployment.
Railway development: lessons for the EU
This paper analyses how EU railway policy for a low-carbon future can be enhanced, drawing insights from Japan and Switzerland.
Ramping up energy storage: lessons for the EU
This paper explores how the EU can enhance its policy for a low-carbon future by learning from successful energy storage approaches in California, South Korea, and Australia.