1.5˚C aligned targets for Australia

Climate Analytics recommends 1.5˚C aligned targets for Australia 

In releasing its recommended climate targets for Australia today, global climate research think tank Climate Analytics said Australia has three climate challenges ahead of it:  increasing its 2030 target, submitting a new 2035 target, along with a new Net Zero Plan.

"The world will be watching Australia's target as the government bids to co-host next year's climate talks with Pacific Island countries whose very existence is threatened by warming exceeding 1.5˚C," said Climate Analytics CEO and Senior Scientist Bill Hare.

"The science is clear: limiting warming as close as possible to the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit and getting on a pathway to net zero by 2050 means taking urgent action. The solutions are clear: it is technologically and economically feasible to make the rapid changes needed, and Australia is well placed to do so with abundant cheap renewable energy and other resources.

"The main barriers to this are political, not scientific.  This applies to all countries, especially for a developed country bidding to host COP31 in 2026."

He noted that Australia's 2035 target and net zero plan must be "ambitious, fair, credible and transparent" - ambitious enough to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C limit, to reflect Australia's responsibility as a developed country and major fossil fuel exporter, and transparent with clear assumptions, and economy-wide and sector-specific targets.

Australia needs to both bring its current 2030 net target of a 43% reduction below 2005 levels in line with the 1.5°C limit, and put forward an adequate 2035 target.

Net emissions target recommendation (including the land sector): 
2030 target:  around 72% below 2005 levels
2035 target:  around 81% below 2005 levels

These targets would set Australia on a pathway towards achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions at the national level close to 2050.

Report lead author, Analyst Thomas Houlie noted that Australia was still relying on questionable land sector accounting to meet its current, net, 2030 target, and had taken little action to cut gross emissions, especially from fossil fuel consumption and production - and from industry.

"While net emissions have dropped by 29% between 2005 and 2024, gross emissions have only decreased by 2% over the same timeframe: a clear indication the government needs to step up action. The government should include both net and gross emissions targets in its NDC to clarify the level of abatement required from the Australian economy."

A credible net zero plan was also critical, given the huge gaps in the current plan that relies significantly on offsets and present government policies are far from bringing Australian GHG emissions net zero by 2050.

 The report also recommends Australia sets specific targets for both carbon dioxide emissions (primarily coming from fossil fuel production and consumption), and especially for methane, given the magnitude of the emissions that come from fossil fuel production.

A critical Issue for Australia’s new NDC is to show how it intends to implement the agreement that it has signed onto - to transition away from fossil fuels.  Australia has a responsibility to plan its transition out of fossil fuels, including exports, and should include this commitment in its new NDC.

"If the Australian government is serious about the leadership role it aspires to in the lead-up to COP31, it must break free from its current inertia justified by the so-called drug dealer defence, the argument that if Australia does not supply fossil fuels, other countries will, so it might as well continue exporting them," said Bill Hare.

"The recent International Court of Justice advisory opinion was very clear that a failure to take appropriate action to protect the climate system from greenhouse gas emissions — including through fossil fuel production - may be 'an internationally wrongful act which is attributable to that State'.  Australia would be wise to take notice of this."

Climate Analytics also pointed out the omission of international aviation and marine emissions from the national target, recommending the government includes these sectors in its new 2030 and 2035 NDCs, as the EU has done. Emissions from international aviation and marine sectors add around 3% to Australian emissions, and are growing quickly.